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Football

Rob's Championship Final Day Accumulator ⚡ @ 3.80

Again, we’re focusing on another side who have plenty to play for. Ipswich have come up several times already in this write up, and now it’s their turn on centre stage.

They lead the charge for automatic promotion, one point clear of Millwall and two clear of Middlesbrough.

Their home form is exemplary. They’ve suffered just one solitary defeat at Portman Road this season - a shock 3-0 loss to Charlton, all the way back in October. Since then it’s been full-steam ahead and their tally of 47 home points can only be bettered by Coventry.

QPR’s season is done and dusted. They’ve been damn entertaining, but their horrendous inconsistency has held them back from any real success. They can finish anywhere between 11th and 17th based on results, and I just can’t see them toppling an Ipswich side with such an excellent home record.

Goals should flow too, QPR have seen two or more goals scored in 34 of their 45 matches, for Ipswich it’s even better - 38 out of 45.

A huge late rally from Pompey has seen them survive relatively comfortably, and now they can finish as high as 17th, or maybe a touch higher if you believe in 7-15 goal swings.

Pompey’s recent form has shown what they’re all about. They’ve got grit, determination and true fighting spirit. Yes, this game doesn’t ‘mean’ anything, but every game means something at Fratton Park and it’ll be a brilliant atmosphere to see out the season.

They’ve won four of their last five matches and have lost just once in seven. They also beat second placed Ipswich here a couple of weeks ago.

Birmingham also have nothing to play for, but I think there’s two disparate moods between the two. It’s a disappointment for Birmingham to not be in at least the play-offs, given the money they’ve shelled out.

A big part of that is their poor return on the road. Only Oxford and Sheff Wed have taken fewer away points, and Oxford only trail that record by a solitary point.

The Blues have lost 13 out of 22 on their travels, which includes a woeful recent run of four losses in their last five.

I think tools are down, they’re on the beach, whilst Pompey will want to see the season out in a positive manner in front of their excellent home fans.

The Lions have a shot at the Premier League, and it’s all come down to matchday 46 to secure it. Their potential promotion isn’t in their hands, their mantra is simple - win, and hope.

Millwall trail Ipswich by a solitary point, with the Tractor Boys currently occupying 2nd place; which would gain automatic promotion.

They need to beat Oxford, who have already been relegated and hope that QPR do them a massive favour at Portman Road.

Oxford already have their fate sealed, and boast the second poorest away record in the division, with only Sheff Wed taking fewer points than The O’s 18. They’ve won just four of their 22 trips this campaign.

It’s just one win in eight on the road to end the season, which came away at Preston, and with some luck in terms of having just 30% of possession.

Millwall’s season has been underpinned by their excellent defence, which has conceded the fourth fewest league goals.

‘Boro are in a similar situation to Millwall, except they need multiple favours. They need Oxford and QPR both to pull their finger out against Millwall and Ipswich, respectively.

The visitors sit fourth in the table, trailing the automatic places by two points.

A brutal run through March and April left them off the pace, and falling away from what should have been a title challenge, but a recent bounce back has seen back-to-back wins; which included a 5-1 drubbing of Watford last time out.

This looks risky at a glance, with Wrexham chasing the play-offs. They currently occupy the final spot, and a win here would guarantee their place in the semi-finals, unless Hull also win and swing the narrow goal difference.

The reality is Wrexham aren’t as good as the table suggests. They rank 20th in the division for expected goals, and 18th for expected goals against. Two key indicators of a severe overperformance.

They’ve struggled lately against sides up and around them, most notably being swept aside by Coventry last time out and being battered 5-1 at home by Southampton.

They also have a distinctly average home record. They’ve only managed eight more points than Leicester, and seven more than Oxford - both of which have been relegated.

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Football
Andy Robson

Andy's Saturday Accumulator 🔥 @ 4.50

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a straight shootout for a spot in the Champions League next season with Hoffenheim sitting below Stuttgart in the Bundesliga table on goal difference alone. Hoffenheim have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions, most recently registering 2-1 victories over the likes of Hamburg and Dortmund to keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive.

Stuttgart have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches in the Bundesliga, and have notably seen 64 goals across their 15 away games in the Bundesliga top flight this term (4.26 per game). Hoffenheim have seen 49 goals across their 15 home games in the German top flight this season (3.26 per game), so this clash is set up to produce goals given the records of these sides across the season as a whole and the direct fight that they find themselves in. 

There are only four goals between these sides when it comes to goal difference as well, with Stuttgart having the advantage in that particular metric, so Hoffenheim may need to get a convincing win here to ensure that they don’t miss out on a spot in the Champions League next season from goal difference alone.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 2-2, which is a bit of a snapshot of how entertaining Nijmegen’s games have been in the Eredivisie this season. Nijmegen have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches in the Dutch top flight, and have notably only kept five clean sheets across their 31 matches (16%), which is a very low figure for a side competing for a spot in the Champions League next season.

Nijmegen can play like this due to how forward thinking they are, they don’t mind giving up goals as they often feel as though they can outscore the opposition - which is a tactic that has worked for them so far this campaign. Their 15 home games have produced 61 goals (4.06 per game), and they’ve conceded 23 goals across these games - suggesting that there is a vulnerability about them that Telstar can look to exploit.

Telstar are battling at the bottom of the Eredivisie, giving them all the motivation they need to get on the scoresheet in this encounter. They scored twice when the sides last met, and have scored at least once in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides. They’ve also scored 15 goals across their 15 away matches, which is a steady record for a relegation threatened side.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

PSV don’t keep many clean sheets for a side that has dominated the Eredivisie (again), sitting 19 points clear at the top of the table but only keeping seven clean sheets across their 31 matches in the Dutch top flight this campaign (22%).

They’ve seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, and have also seen 53 goals across their 15 away games in the Eredivisie (3.53 per game) - impressively winning 13 of these matches. 

They take on an Ajax side who are chasing down Nijmegen and Feyenoord for a spot in the Champions League next season, Ajax managed to earn a 2-2 draw when these sides met earlier in the campaign and have seen 42 goals across their 15 horn games in the Eredivisie this term (2.8 per game). 

BTTS has landed in five of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, and Ajax’s desperation to break into the Champions League spots partnered with PSV’s slight complacency having already secured the title should see both sides be able to get on the scoresheet here.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a game that Arsenal simply have to win, Manchester City travel to face Everton on Monday, which is no easy assignment, so this could be the weekend for Arsenal to open up a convincing gap at the top of the table given that they take on an easier opponent in Fulham at home.

Arsenal played pretty well in Madrid during the week, but only came away with a 1-1 draw from the game - leaving the tie in the balance until the sides meet at the Emirates next week, complicating matters further for Mikel Arteta as he can’t really afford to rotate his side for either crucial game. Arsenal have won 13 of their 17 home matches in the Premier League this season, collecting more points than any other side at home (41) and conceding fewer goals than any other side (11). 

Fulham have been really poor on the road this campaign, winning just four of their 17 away games in the Premier League. Only Leeds (14), Burnley (9) and Wolves (5) have picked up fewer points on the road than Fulham in the top flight this campaign, so Arsenal really should be collecting all three points in this game given the situation with the title race and factoring in Fulham’s poor record away from home in the Premier League this season.

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