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Union Berlin v Wolfsburg 

We’re heading over to the Bundesliga for the first stop of our train, with the focus firmly on the relegation battle. Wolfsburg are in big trouble, they enter this weekend seven points from safety with only five games of the season remaining - and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 22 matches across all competitions.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced four goals as Wolfsburg ran out 3-1 winners over Union Berlin. That win is one of only three victories that Wolfsburg have managed since early December in the Bundesliga, and they were pretty fortunate to collect all three points on that occasion with Union Berlin posting an xG of 1.92 from 21 shots.

No side has conceded more goals on the road in the Bundesliga this season than Wolfsburg (34 - 2.42 per game), so there is a chance that Union Berlin can deepen the misery of the away side and cover this line on their own. Wolfsburg have still carried a decent scoring power themselves across these matches, netting 18 goals.

Union Berlin’s 14 home games in the Bundesliga have produced 41 goals (2.92 per game), they’ve only won four of these matches - so Wolfsburg have to see this as a must win game for the situation they find themselves in.

Werder Bremen v Hamburg 

The other notable battle at the bottom of the Bundesliga this week is between Werder Bremen and Hamburg. The home side sit just three points above the drop zone, and have seen 40 goals across their 14 home games in the Bundesliga this term (2.85 per game). 

The initial league meeting between these sides produced five goals as Hamburg came away 3-2 winners over Werder Bremen at home. That clash produced a combined xG of 2.06 from 22 match shots in total - and I can see both sides contributing to the goal count again here. 

Hamburg aren’t in as much trouble as Werder Bremen, but still are in a precarious position with only six points keeping them from the drop zone. A victory for the home side here would drag Hamburg right back into the heart of the relegation battle, offering both sides plenty of motivation to push on for goals and produce a high scoring game.

Furthermore, Hamburg have conceded 27 goals across their 14 away games in the Bundesliga this season (1.92 per game), winning just two of these games - so Werder Bremen should be encouraged to push on and collect all three points in this relegation six pointer which should produce at least two match goals.

Brentford are on the brink of a historic season, and can add a West London derby win to their 2025/26 memories at an odds-against price.

The Bees have lost just three of their 16 home league outings so far this term, registering a +9 goal difference across those games. Fulham have the 4th-worst away record in the division and have registered less than one point per game in their 16 league away trips.

Four consecutive draws has stagnated Keith Andrews' men's European charge, but they've consistently looked dangerous at home, particularly going forward. Across their last six home league games, they're averaging 2.26 expected goals (xG) for per game. They've posted at least 1.51 xG for in all of those and accumulated a total above 2.55 in three of those six games.

That kind of firepower should give them the upper hand against a lacklustre away side, even though it is a short trip for the Cottagers. Their four away wins this term have come at Tottenham, Burnley, West Ham and Sunderland - three of the current bottom four. This is a much tougher test.

Team motivation is ruling the market at this stage of the season, but I'd argue there's still enough to like about 2.25 on Barrow to get the better of Walsall.

Barrow gave themselves a fighting chance of avoiding the drop to non-league with an impressive 3-2 over play-off chasing Oldham on Tuesday night. Though they were winless in three before that game, it was a tough run of fixtures that they competed admirably in - drawing 0-0 at MK Dons (2nd), losing 1-0 at home to Chesterfield (7th) and losing 3-2 at in-form Barnet (9th).

Walsall have nothing to play for, 10 points off 7th with three to play - out of road. Interim manager Darren Byfield was initially putting together a case to get the job beyond the end of the season, but a 4-0 loss at home to Cheltenham (18th) last weekend derailed that. It was a limp display that saw them register just two shots in a second half mauling. They're now four without a win and have conceded two goals or more in each of their last three.

Barrow actually won the reverse fixture 2-1 in October, when both teams' seasons looked a lot more positive.

Swindon still have a sniff of automatic promotion with three to play in League Two.

Ian Holloway's Robins have two home games in their final trio and sit three points off of 3rd-place. Accrington have put together another really impressive season under John Doolan, they've got their feet up in 16th and have lost three in a row - one eye on the sun lounger.

They've actually only taken five points from their last 12 league games - 0.42 points per game in that run. Accy have scored less than a goal a game on the road in the league this season.

Swindon cannot afford to take their foot off the gas either, they're not yet assured of a place in the play-offs and can't afford to jeopardise that by missing out in this encounter. Their final two fixtures are significantly more challenging - Grimsby (8th) and Chesterfield (7th) - compared to cuddly out-of-form Stanley.

28 of 41 Barnsley league games this season have seen BTTS land, the highest % of any side in the league. Bradford rank 8th for that measure.

For away game BTTS %, Bradford rank joint-4th in the league, so it helps that this game is at Oakwell, too. The Bantams have scored in 81% of their league games since returning to the third tier.

The reverse fixture was a 2-2 draw, with this bet landing in the 24th minute. The game produced a total xG of 3.82.

We're possibly getting some extra juice on the price here, because Barnsley haven't scored in either of their last two home games. But that's not to say they didn't threaten - posting xG tallies of 0.75 and 0.57 in those outings.

Bradford have conceded in 17 of their 21 league away games this season, and they let one in against Stevenage last time out. Stevenage have the 5th-lowest goals for column in League One this term. Barnsley are 7th in that regard.

For this squad of Leicester players to be where they are, five points from safety with four games to play, points towards one of the most toxic dressing rooms around.

Even if you gave them back the six points they were deducted, they'd only be one point above the relegation zone. Having been one of the pre-season favourites to make an immediate return to the Premier League.

Portsmouth have hit form just at the right time, and Fratton Park will be electric on Saturday lunchtime. They've beaten Middlesbrough (5th) and Ipswich (2nd) without conceding in their last two games. Giving them a four-point cushion on the relegation zone.

Beat a Leicester side, who are winless in five and have won just once in 16 in the league, and they'll likely seal safety.

Though the Foxes are second-bottom, they still prefer to have more possession than their opponents - they're not your typical relegation-scrapper. In their last two away games, they had 55% at Watford 70% at Sheffield Wednesday.

Pompey have just won back-to-back games with 29% and then 40% possession. It's not quite rinse and repeat, but there are loads of things that Pompey have done well in their last couple that they can apply to taking on Leicester.