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Andy Robson

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid Bet Builder @ 3.56

The first leg at the Bernabeu was one of the most entertaining Champions League games of the season - both sides had 20 shots each, Neuer made nine saves, and Lunin pulled off five of his own. Despite their heroics, there were still three goals in that game. 

There is every reason to expect a similarly open contest at the Allianz Arena for the second leg, as Real Madrid will have to come out firing to have any chance of completing the comeback. With 15 Champions League titles to their name, Real Madrid are the most successful club in the history of the competition, so they definitely won’t go down without a fight.

Bayern have bagged 105 goals in the Bundesliga this season, and they aren’t going to sit back to defend their lead here. The Bavarians will continue to be front-footed in their approach, which makes goals a target once again. 

Assuming Bayern Munich maintain their usual approach for this game at the Allianz Arena, we should get a very similar matchup. There were 19 corners in that first leg, with 11 for the German side and eight for Real Madrid, comfortably clearing this line. 

Los Blancos are averaging 11.85 corners per game in the Champions League this season, and this selection landed in both matches against Man City in the previous knockout round. There were 11 corners in the first leg against Pep Guardiola’s men, and 15 in the second.

Knockout ties can tend to be a good opportunity to target corners, as sides become a bit more desperate and last-ditch in their efforts. Especially with this tie still hanging firmly in the balance, chances should continue to be available at both ends, with the momentum swinging between the two sides.

Michael Olise was one of Bayern’s standout performers from the first leg, and he provided the assist for Harry Kane. The Frenchman has contributed to 42 goals this season for Bayern, with 17 goals and 25 assists, and he was unfortunate not to find the back of the net in the first leg. Olise registered four shots in total, and two of those hit the target. 

The 24-year-old also bagged a brace in the previous round against Atalanta, as Bayern cruised to a 6-1 victory in Bergamo. Olise has been central to his side's success going forward this season, and he is averaging 3.77 shots per 90 in the Champions League.

He has landed this bet in tougher matchups against the likes of Chelsea, PSG, and, of course, Real Madrid in the first leg. He tends to play with more attacking freedom on home turf, making him a target again here.

Knowing that they have a one-goal deficit to overcome at the Allianz Arena, Real Madrid will have to be a bit more intense in their press, and they could get quite desperate at times. Joshua Kimmich has plenty of experience in these kinds of big fixtures, and Vincent Kompany will be reliant on his captain to provide that calmness in midfield. 

The German international is averaging 1.16 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, which rises steeply to 1.72 when playing in the Champions League. He was fouled once in the reverse fixture and has landed this selection in nine out of ten appearances on the European stage this season. The only game he failed was against Club Brugge, but Bayern dominated that contest and won 4-0. 

This upcoming clash against Real Madrid should be much more evenly balanced, and Kimmich will be a target in midfield.

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Football
Andy Robson

Arsenal v Sporting Bet Builder @ 4.24

David Raya made some important stops in Lisbon last week as Arsenal registered a 1-0 victory over Sporting thanks to a last-minute winner from Kai Havertz. Raya is an exceptional shot stopper and was called into action five times in that game, earning him the man of the match title. 

Raya has kept seven clean sheets across his 10 starts in the Champions League this season, only conceding three goals across these matches. He’s been called into action 27 times in the Premier League (2.70 per 90) and is likely to be tested at least twice by a Sporting side who do have quality in the final third, as they showed last week with their five efforts on target.

It’s also pretty notable that Raya is busier in the Champions League than he is in the Premier League. His save average jumps from 1.59 saves per 90 in the Premier League to 2.70 saves per 90 in the Champions League - so there is a clear trend of Raya being more active when playing in Europe for the Gunners.

Arsenal have been bombarded with criticism of late, which is warranted given how they’ve collapsed domestically, but their record in the Champions League is really positive. 

Arsenal have won all five of their home games in the Champions League this season, it’s really easy to forget their dominant victories over Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid at the Emirates, in which they completely dominated those sides. 

Arteta’s side need a lift, and the Champions League should be able to deliver that morale boost - if Arsenal get through here, then they could have a relatively uncomplicated route to the final with Atletico Madrid looking likely to be their semi-final opponents. 

Sporting’s best performances this season have come at home. They’ve lost to Napoli, Bayern Munich, and Bodo Glimt on the road in the Champions League this term, so you get the feeling that they just missed their chance to make something of this tie by not getting on the scoresheet in the first leg.

Geny Catamo was hauled down three times when the sides faced off last week, and can offer a threat on the counterattack to Arsenal again here as Sporting look to get back into this tie.

Catamo was caught offside twice in that game, suggesting that the winger was constantly looking to run beyond Arsenal’s high defensive line and act as an outlet for Sporting. This proved to be pretty effective, with Catamo having four shots in the game and accounting for three of the five shots that Sporting managed to get on target.

Catamo has drawn 16 fouls across his eight starts in the Champions League this season (2.05 per 90), showing that this trait of Catamo’s is pretty consistent in the Champions League. His domestic numbers are also pretty convincing, with Catamo maintaining an average of 2.11 fouls won per 90 across his 20 starts in Liga Portugal this term.

Sporting committed exactly 11 fouls when these sides faced off last week, and I think they’ll be able to get to that foul tally again here.

Fouls can be a bit of a frustrating market to bet on when they take a while to stack up, but Sporting have maintained an average of 10.7 fouls committed per game in the Champions League this season - a total that should rise just slightly here.

Only three sides in the Champions League have picked up more yellow cards this season than Sporting (23). They’re chasing the tie here, so there is naturally going to be a bit of angst from the away side as they look to get that goal that will get them back in the contest.

Arsenal haven’t been at their strongest of late, but still tend to be pretty dominant at home in the Champions League and will look to break the game up as much as possible.

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It's a crucial week in the Champions League, and we'll have the action covered in our Tuesday Champions League Accumulator Tips and Wednesday Champions League Accumulator Tips.

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Glen Durrant returns with his weekly Premier League Darts Boosted Double Tips for this week's action in Rotterdam.

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Andy Robson is the UK's leading football tipster with over 900,000 social media followers. He launched Andy's Bet Club in 2019 to give his community free access to betting tools and expert tips.

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