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The 3-0 Bills have home advantage against the 1-2 Patriots and on current form, the Bills should comfortably cover the spread. Indeed, this is their third straight game in their new Highmark Stadium, and they should be fully accustomed to the new ground. A lack of travel also means fresh legs, and this is another advantage

New England ranks joint-dead-last with Miami offensively, averaging just 12.0 points per game, while Buffalo leads the NFL with an average of 33.7 PPG

New England may be tighter defensively (17.0 OPP PPG vs. 26.0 for the Bills) but QB Drake Maye is not playing well, without a touchdown since Week 1 and with 6 interceptions already. He has thrown for 178, 208, and 199 yards in the 3 games so far this season, far below his usual high standards.

In contrast, the Bills rank 4th in yards per game with 401.7 (New England is 22nd with 307.0) and 4th in rushing (155.0 yards per game) with New England 17th in rushing defense with 108.3 opponent yards per game. Expect the Bills to capitalize on Maye's mistakes and claim the win here

The Jets are 1-2 on the season and lost 31-24 to the Lions last week, but were tied in that game before a late Detroit TD took them over the line.

They have also been far more competitive than their record suggests, with their 2 losses being by a combined 10 points. On the other side, the Bears will need to decide which backup QB to go with - Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum - with starter Caleb Williams still on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

Jets QB Geno Smith put in a particularly strong performance against the Lions last time out and can keep it close against a Bears side that is 2-1 on the season. He has thrown 102 passes without an interception so far this campaign. The Jets also have the 4th-best defense in opponent yards per play (4.8). There's too much here not to back New York at +3.5.

Jacksonville ranks 10th in the NFL with 27.3 PPG, with Cincinnati 12th on 26.7. The Jaguars scored 35 last time out vs. the New England Patriots. 

However, it is in defense where the Jaguars peak, having the strongest in the league with just 12.0 OPP PPG. In contrast, Cincinnati sits joint 12th on 21.0. Joe Burrow has yet to hit peak form for the Bengals, while the key stat could be 3rd down conversion percentage. Here, the Jaguars sit 5th on 52.94% and the Bengals joint-7th on 46.34%.

The Jaguars are also 88.9% in red-zone conversion (TD only) compared to Cincinnati's 50.00%. This game could potentially end up as something of a shootout but there's enough here to make me side with Jacksonville.

The Giants are averaging 15.3 PPG this season (28th in the NFL) while Arizona aren't performing much better, sitting 18th with 21.0 PPG. This combines to 36.3 PPG between the 2 sides, well below this line. Indeed, the Giants have only scored 46 points in 3 games, barely beating the 44.5 points total here. The Cardinals have scored just 63.

Defensively, Arizona sits 24th with an OPP PPG of 27.0 but the Giants have been tight, sitting 9th with 18.3 OPP PPG. This combines to 45.3, 0.8 over this line, but quarterback Jaxson Dart's season-ending knee injury has significantly weakened the Giants and it's unlikely they'll be able to take full advantage of the Cardinals' weak defense. In addition, Arizona and New York sit joint-2nd-bottom in the NFL for yards per play (4.5) suggesting fewer opportunities. Back the Under.

This is less a case of the Dolphins winning, that's unlikely, but this spread is just too high. The Vikings may be 3-0 on the season, but are weak offensively and struggle to execute scoring chances.

They rank dead last in yards per game (238.3), dead last in yards per play (4.3), and dead last in passing yards per game (137.0).

Star wide receiver Justin Jefferson could also miss the game for Minnesota, having suffered an ankle injury during the Vikings' 23-16 win over the Buccaneers this week. This too will weaken them. Minnesota's strong defense should see them to victory, but not by this sort of margin.

Allen has already scored 6 rushing TDs this season - 2 each over the 3 games played so far - putting him well on target to beat the 14 rushing TDs he scored last campaign.

Allen is up against a Patriots defense that ranks joint-10th in opponent rushing TDs per game (0.7) but conceded 2 rushing TDs last time out vs. the Jaguars last time out.

The Pats also sit 17th in rushing yards per game (108.3) and joint-10th in rushing attempts per game (25.0). With Drake Maye's issues with interceptions and the Bills top-rated rushing attack (4th in rushing yards per game, 155.0), Allen could capitalize again and score a TD for the 4th straight game this season

Cook rushed for 135 yards against Detroit in Week 2 and 154 yards versus Los Angeles last time out, taking his average up to a season-best 115.3 Y/G on the season.

Cook is also averaging 6.0 yards per attempt this season, another season record. Against the Patriots, he faces a team that ranks 17th in the NFL on opponent rushing yards per game (108.3).

With Pats QB Drake Maye already having 6 interceptions, the Bills' rushing game could capitalize, allowing Cook to get over this total. Expect the majority of Cook's yards to come later in the game as the Bills use their offensive prowess to pull away from the Pats

Despite the Bills' favorability in this one, they are still weak defensively. With an average of 26.0 OPP PPG (joint-21st in the NFL) and 254.3 opponent passing yards per game (27th in the NFL), there should be plenty of opportunities for the Pats to get yards.

Doubs is one of the most likely to do it. He went over his line in New England's dismal 35-6 Week 3 defeat to the Jaguars, receiving for 49 yards, while in Week 2 vs. Pittsburgh he received for 96, with his longest reception being 63 yards. He is averaging 49.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games and has had a 75% catch rate over his last 2 games