This is a really nice price, I’d consider taking it as a single given Yamal’s record at the tournament so far and how influential he is to this Spanish side. 

Yamal was desperate to score against Austria last time out, taking six shots with four of them finding the target - a shot accuracy of 67%. 

He definitely should have scored with at least one of these efforts, but the volume of shots is a good sign when backing him for 2+ shots on target here.

Yamal had more touches in the opposition box than any other player during that comfortable win over Austria (14). 

He’s taken 14 shots overall at the World Cup (5.60 per 90) which may seem inflated, but Yamal has been shooting more often over the last year, averaging 4.64 shots per 90 for Barcelona in LaLiga during the most recent campaign.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia last time out and will be eager to strike again here as he eyes up the one trophy that has eluded him in his career to date.

Ronaldo has always had a pretty high shot volume, even more so since moving to a central striker role. 

He’s taken 15 shots across his four starts (3.85 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.79 per 90).

This record has resulted in three goals for Ronaldo at the World Cup, which is remarkably one of his best scoring records in the competition. 

He scored five goals across five starts for Portugal during qualifying, averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90.

I was pretty disappointed with Austria last time out, I thought they would have challenged Spain a lot more than they did. 

Ralf Rangnick’s side looked leggy and a bit unorganised with their press, which isn’t like them - but maybe the conditions played a part in their performance.

That underwhelming performance for Austria means that this is Spain’s first real test at the World Cup and, as good as they’ve looked at the back, I think Portugal can cause them problems in transition. 

Uruguay and Austria both failed to really make the most of those situations, but Portugal have more quality in forward areas to punish Spain.

Portugal have a recent edge over Luis de la Fuente’s side too, they beat them on penalties to win the Nations League last year after a 2-2 draw. 

Meetings between these nations tend to be entertaining, they contested a 3-3 draw during the 2018 World Cup which was particularly notable for a hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo.

Marc Cucurella relishes a 1v1 duel and he’ll have a familiar opponent here in Pedro Neto who I can see exploiting the space that Cucurella leaves in behind at times when he pushes up into the advanced left half space.

Cucurella is exceptional at this role, his positioning is better than the majority of fullbacks who attempt to play in this way and he can give credit to Enzo Maresca who matured him in this role during his time at Chelsea.

This assignment does however leave Cucurella a bit exposed at times when Spain lose possession, often resulting in the Real Madrid man having to make niggling or tactical fouls to stop sides breaking away quickly. 

He’s committed five fouls across his four starts at the World Cup so far (1.25 per 90) and his direct opponent in Pedro Neto is averaging 1.00 fouls won per 90 at the World Cup and will be aware of Cucurella’s clever movement more than most having played with him at Chelsea.

I think Bruno Fernandes is going to be crucial to any chance Portugal have of coming through this tie.

Spain’s more challenging opponents so far have had some promising situations develop in transition but have failed to pick the right pass to unlock this Spain backline - who do play very high and leave space in behind.

Portugal have the runners required to get beyond this high line, including the likes of Neto, Leao and Mendes who will all make those positive runs and Bruno Fernandes can pick them out.

Fernandes has registered one assist at the World Cup so far, with that coming against Uzbekistan where he did exactly what we need him to do here in picking the right pass on a counter attack.

Fernandes is averaging 2.16 shots per 90 and 1.08 chances created per 90 at the World Cup, which are decent underlying numbers and his role on set pieces as well as ability to pick the right pass at the right time make him a player to watch in this exciting looking clash.

Continuing the theme of Portugal being a threat in transition, the wide areas will be crucial for Spain to manage and I can see both Porro and Cucurella struggling at times with their direct opponents.

Like Cucurella, Porro pushes very high up the pitch and leaves a lot of space in behind. That space will be filled by Rafael Leao in this encounter who is a very dangerous player and can force Porro into committing a few tactical fouls.

Leao was a constant threat against Croatia last time out, setting up the winning goal with a brilliant cross to Ramos. Looking at his heat map, he pretty much hugged the touchline which makes him a real direct threat to Porro.

Leao won 34 fouls across his 23 starts for Milan during the most recent campaign (1.65 per 90) and will be well aware of how often Porro pushes on into forward areas.

Rafael Leao has always been a bit of a nearly player.

He’s always discussed in passing when people talk about the most talented wingers in Europe, but there is also a consensus that he should be producing a bit more consistently for the talent he has.

He’s already registered two goal contributions at the World Cup, including setting up Portugal’s winner against Croatia in the closing stages last time out. 

I see him being a really useful outlet for Portugal here, he should have plenty of space with Yamal and Porro down his side who both stay quite high. 

Leao has taken four shots across his 136 minutes of action at the World Cup (2.65 per 90) and maintained a similar average during the most recent Serie A campaign (3.05 per 90).

These two met last year in the Nations League final, and it was Portugal who prevailed on penalties.

It was an incredibly entertaining contest which finished 2-2 in regular time, before Ruben Neves fired in the winning penalty after Alvaro Morata missed. Once again, both sides look incredibly strong going forward, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an identical scoreline.

Mikel Oyarzabal was a standout performer in that match, as he scored the third goal of the game. The 29-year-old comes into this World Cup knockout tie in excellent form, having just scored a brace against Austria in the previous round.

He also scored twice against Saudi Arabia in the group stages, making him the top scorer for Spain at the moment. After scoring 18 goals in 40 appearances across all competitions for Real Sociedad, Oyarzabal has carried that impressive form into his national side.

Rafael Leão started his first World Cup game in the round of 32 against Croatia last time out, and that decision paid dividends.

He sent in the cross that Goncalo Ramos converted in the final few minutes to win the game. Leão did not commit a foul in that match, but he is averaging 1.29 fouls per 90 since Euro 2024. That is a notable increase in his foul numbers for AC Milan, which suggests he is being asked to track back much more for his national side.

Leão featured against Spain in the Nations League final last year and committed two fouls despite playing only 45 minutes. He will be tasked with containing Pedro Porro, who was fouled twice against Austria last time out, and Lamine Yamal, who will operate on the same flank as him.

Timothy Castagne averaged just 0.83 fouls per 90 for Fulham this season, which is nothing to write home about, but he has shown a tendency to rack up fouls when playing against more direct and technical wingers.

He accounted for four of Belgium's 22 fouls against Senegal last time out, and he was fortunate to escape a booking in the end.

Christian Pulisic looks set to be directly up against Castagne for this clash, so it could be a tough game for the full back. Pulisic was fouled four times against Bosnia in the round of 32, and he looked back to his best after being hampered by injuries recently.

The AC Milan winger is averaging 4.34 fouls drawn per 90 at this World Cup, and with Folarin Balogun suspended, Pulisic should see plenty of the ball here, bringing Castagne into the game.

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his first ever World Cup knockout goal from the penalty spot against Croatia last time out and will be eager to strike again here as he eyes up the one trophy that has eluded him in his career to date.

Ronaldo has always had a pretty high shot volume, even more so since moving to a central striker role. 

He’s taken 15 shots across his four starts (3.85 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.79 per 90).

This record has resulted in three goals for Ronaldo at the World Cup, which is remarkably one of his best scoring records in the competition. 

He scored five goals across five starts for Portugal during qualifying, averaging 7.44 shots per 90 and 2.88 shots on target per 90.

What a price this is, the same bet is as low as 1.47 with other leading bookmakers so we're getting a great price @ 2.25.

Yamal took the joint most shots of any player against Austria last time out, seeing four of these shots find the target.

He had four shots when these sides met in the Nations League final last year, seeing two of these attempts find the target.

That final produced four goals and the last World Cup meeting between these nations produced six goals as they drew 3-3 in 2018.

Both sides saw 3+ goals in their Round of 32 ties and will be prepared for a high scoring game here.

This is a really nice boost, Ronaldo and Oyarzabal both lead the line for their country and have scored at least three goals each at the World Cup.

Ronaldo has found the target seven times across his four matches (1.79 per 90) while Oyarzabal has managed five shots on target across his four starts (1.50 per 90).

The last time these sides met at a World Cup, the clash produced six goals with the game ending 3-3. They also drew 2-2 in the Nations League final last year before Portugal progressed on penalties, so we can expect an entertaining tussle here with chances at both ends.