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How does the Racing Ratings algorithm work?
Our unique Racing Ratings product is a free horse racing tips algorithm that looks at every runner, in every race, every day. The algorithm aims to assess every horse’s chance of winning their race, based on certain criteria. It allocates a numerical value to important information extracted from the horse’s previous race form as well as external factors like bookmaker odds and the performance of the trainer and jockey. The values awarded for each of the criteria are then added together to create an overall rating for each horse in the race – the ‘ABC Rating’. Essentially, the higher the ABC Rating, the better the chance that horse has of winning the race according to our calculations.
In races such as novices and maidens, horses may be running for the very first time, so their ABC Rating is likely to be significantly lower than that of a horse that has run multiple times. Handicap races will often contain horses that have run many times before and will therefore carry a higher ABC Rating number. Sometimes, in novice and maiden races, you may find a top-rated horse in the race with a rating in minus figures. This doesn’t mean that this particular top-rated horse has a lower chance of winning the race, just that it has had fewer runs and therefore has a lower top-rated rating for that race. This is why we always show the number of starts a horse has had.
Our Racing Ratings are produced and displayed here at 8am on the day of racing, taking into account all known data at that time. You can also check out our daily write-up of the top-rated horses and free horse racing bets for each day here.
What data does the Racing Ratings algorithm use?
Ground conditions are a vital component in assessing a horse’s chances of winning a race. Thoroughbreds are bred for speed and are highly sensitive to ground conditions. You will often hear the commentators saying, “Will he act on the ground” or a trainer saying, “We are concerned if he will stay on this ground”. Racehorses have different styles of running. Some have a compact round action which is generally suited to “top of the ground” firmer conditions, while others have a very high knee action, lifting their hooves higher to help to maintain their balance on soft/heavy ground.
Try and imagine yourself running on a beach. Are you quicker and better balanced running on the deep “soft” sand or the wet “firm” sand? Can you run further on the wet sand than on the softer sand? This is where “stamina” comes into play as well!
Our Racing Ratings look at how the horse has performed on the different ground types in all their previous runs. We take the ground conditions as declared by the clerk of the course at the time the ratings were produced. The ground is one of the things that can change during the day and is always worth checking before placing your bets on our free horse racing tips.
We don’t assess recent form on a date basis (i.e. runs in the last 30 days), instead, we look at the horse’s last three runs. Form can be a little difficult to assess at times, as a sprinter on the all-weather track can race three times in a couple of weeks, whereas group-class or high-class horses may only run three or four times in a season. As well as a horse’s last three runs, we also use another data point in this area; “Days since last run”. Some horses can run well after a prolonged rest period, while others need that run to get going again. The recent form is of course relevant, but we base our free horse racing tips mainly on both latest runs and days off the course.
We extract the bookmaker odds available at the time we create the ratings and assign them a score. This score is based on the value we believe the odds are offering, based on the previous form of the horse. Of course, the odds are a constantly changing variable and very soon we will be able to track the price of the selection throughout the day. Which will allow us to then factor this into the Racing Ratings to obtain even more value from our free horse racing tips.
The trainer stats are based on the performance of the trainer over the last five years. We look at the trainer’s winners-to-runners ratio and calculate a percentage win rate. The output is then recorded, and a numerical value is assigned, based on that win percentage.
Jockeys are assessed by our algorithm in the same way as trainers. There are different types of jockeys from amateur riders, claimers, and apprentices, all the way to superstar professional jockeys. Depending on how qualified they are, jockeys can receive allowances in the form of taking weight off the horse’s back (in certain race types). All this data is quantified, and all jockeys are assigned a value based on their percentage win rate but also their riding criteria and allowances.
You may have heard the phrase “horses for courses” and that is something we look at in the horse’s form. Racecourses in the UK are all unique. There are right-handed and left-handed courses, tight courses like Chester, galloping courses like Newmarket, and even energy-sapping finishes like the famous hill at Cheltenham. Horses are aware of their surroundings, and some can excel when they are at familiar tracks. Previous form at a course is valuable knowledge to have. The Racing Ratings algorithm not only takes course form into account but also form at “similar” courses.
Racehorses are bred and trained to run over certain distances. Bloodlines are very important to thoroughbreds and they are often bought at sales for large sums based solely on the Sire (Father) and Dam (Mother) and their respective performances on the racecourse. Imagine putting Usain Bolt in a 10,000m race or Mo Farah in a 100m sprint, chances are they wouldn’t have been as successful!
It is the trainer’s job to identify the horse’s optimum distance and then identify races for it to run in, and we track how each horse performs over certain distances. The horse could be a world-beater over five furlongs but hasn’t managed to place over a mile. These factors are taken into account when assigning a value to a selection for a specific race over a certain distance.
What time do you update your Racing Ratings?
As you can see from the way our Racing Ratings are calculated, a lot of data is collected and analysed to provide these free horse racing tips. We publish the Racing Ratings on our website on this page at 8am every day of the year when horse racing occurs.
How much does your Racing Ratings product cost?
Our Racing Ratings horse racing tips are free for everyone to use. We also offer one-click adding to your bet slip on all the Racing Rating runners, to save you the hassle of finding the runners and races on the bookmaker’s site for your horse racing bets.
Do you cover any big horse racing festivals?
We provide free horse racing tips and predictions via our Racing Ratings product for high-profile events including:
The Cheltenham Festival is one of the biggest horse racing events in the world, taking place over four days in March, and features several Grade 1 races.
Glorious Goodwood takes place over five days in August with several Group races and is known for its relaxed atmosphere.
We provide comprehensive coverage of this five-day event. Starting in June, Royal Ascot features several Group 1 races and members of the British royal family can often be found in attendance.
Epsom Derby Festival
Home to the famous Epsom Downs Racecourse, this meet hosts several Group 1 races, including the Derby Stakes (also known as the Derby) and the Oaks.
The Grand National
The world-famous race, hosted at Aintree Racecourse in Liverpool, is one of the most challenging races in the world and features 30 fences. The Grand National itself is part of the Grand National Festival, featuring four days of racing.
Where can I find the best racing tips?
The in-depth data, analysis and research that goes into the ABC Racings Ratings algorithm every single day means that the free horse racing tips provided by us are of the highest quality. You can also visit our free bets page to grab some free bet offers to turbo-charge your horse racing bets.
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