SønderjyskE v AGF Aarhus
Friday 18th February – 6:00PM KO
The Danish Superliga returns following the Winter break, having not seen any action since the 29th of November. It is probably just as well domestic football shut up shop over the festive period considering that temperatures of -17.5°C were recorded in Skrydstrup on Christmas Eve. This would make it the third coldest Christmas Eve in Denmark since records began in the early 19th Century. While February will still be mild in Scandinavia, players are less at risk of hypothermia and will be well rested coming into their games.
The first match on Friday suggests the league won’t return with a bang for fans of Danish football. Aarhus will make the trip South to visit SønderjyskE for kick off at 18:00. Both teams are midway through disappointing seasons and are placed 7th and 11th respectively in the 12-team league. Considering Aarhus have finished in the top 4 for the last two seasons and enjoyed some success in the Europa League and their hosts placed higher last season, they’ll be looking to finish the season stronger than they started.
My pick for this match is for there to be under 2.5 goals. The last 4 matches between these 2 teams have seen less than goals. SønderjyskE are the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league this season with only 11 goals from 17 matches and Aarhus are the 3rd lowest scoring team in the league with just 15 goals from the same number of games. Aarhus will be the favourites entering this match considering SønderjyskE haven’t won in their last 5, their low scoring is matched by their low conceding too. They’ve only conceded 19 goals this season which is illustrated by their ability to win by narrow margins. From their 5 wins this season, they’ve won by 1 goal 3 times, 2 goals once, and 3 goals once. This is promising for this selection because they are facing up against a team that has the highest rate of failing to score in the league, 47% of SønderjyskE’s games have seen them unable to find the net.
Aarhus have struggled on the road this season not just to pick up points but to score goals too. Their away goalscoring exploits have seen them fail to find the net an incredible 75% of the time! This makes them the least prolific team away from home this season by some margin and this has resulted in only 3 goals away from Aarhus Stadium. This has certainly contributed to the fact that there have only been over 2.5 goals once in Aarhus’s 8 away games this season which gives them an abysmal hit rate of 13%! Their combined record isn’t much better either and keeps them at rock bottom for instances of 3 or more goals with only 29% of games delivering which puts them 2 places below SønderjyskE who aren’t much better at 41%. At home this is even worse for them, with only 38% of SønderjyskE’s games featuring 3 or more goals.
Neither team has made convincing attacking acquisitions to fix their goal droughts so I’m predicting that even with the Winter break, their goalscoring fortunes will remain unchanged. This is my Five-Star Pick for this round of fixtures available for odds of 1.73.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
FC Nordsjaelland v Brondby
Sunday 20th February – 3:00PM KO
There’s a shorter trip for the away team on Sunday on the East coast as Brondby briefly travel North. Nordsjaellend have had a very poor season and are languishing in 10th place which if things remained the same would be their worst finish in the league since 2004-2005. They are winless in their last 11 and the Right to Dream Stadium will reluctantly welcome the challenging proposition of battling Brondby on Sunday.
The defending champions Brondby picked up their 11th league title last season after a 16-year hiatus. The Danish giants currently sit 3rd in the Superliga and will come in without a Europa League warmup like their title challengers Midtjylland. Prior to the Winter break they were the most on-form team in the league and enter this match on a 7-game win streak. They’ve won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the 2 teams, however the last fixture in October saw Nordsjaelland pick up a shock 1-0 victory away from home.
Brondby will be the obvious favourites entering this match, however I’m avoiding selecting them for the result because they have only managed 2 wins in 8 away games this season. Instead, I’m opting for 3 or more goals between the 2 neighbours. Both teams have been leaky at the back this season, the hosts Nordsjaelland have only managed 1 clean sheet at home this season from 8 games. The same can be said of Brondby who have only registered 1 clean sheet too from the same number of games away from home. The overall record isn’t prettier for both sides backlines, they’ve only produced 3 clean sheets from 17 games! This suggests that there will be a high likelihood of goals flying in at both ends on Sunday.
Brondby have only failed to score in 1 of their 8 away games this season and only twice in all their 17 fixtures. Only faring slightly worse, the hosts have only failed to score in 2 of their 8 home games and 5 of their 17 league fixtures overall. Nordsjaellend have the highest rate of both teams to score at home, with 75% of their games at The Right to Dream Stadium featuring goals at either end. Brondby have the same rate of 75% for both teams to score away from home and are the 2nd highest overall for both teams to score having witnessed 12 of their 17 matches feature goals for both sides.
The only thing stopping me from giving this five stars is the recent head to heads between the 2 sides. There have been 3 consecutive matches between the 2, where only 1 team has scored. In fact, in the last 8 matches there have only been 2 instances of both teams scoring which is not insignificant. However, based on this season’s form, this seems like a shoo-in for both teams to score and is my Four-Star Pick for Sunday at odds of 1.57.
Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.57 on Betfair (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️)
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