Since 4-1 and 5-0 victories over Luton and Cardiff in the first two matches of the season, games involving Burnley have a much lower margin feel to them. The following six league matches have all gone under 2.5 goals, four of them under 1.5 goals and none have had more than a one-goal margin outcome. Burnley have also kept three clean sheets in their last four matches and in their last two matches against Oxford and Plymouth they’ve given up a combined xGA of just 0.36.

The defensive numbers across the season rank Burnley second in the league for xGA – their tally of 6.4 is bettered only by Leeds’ 5.21. At the other end of the pitch, Burnley total xG of 7.23 is the third-worst in the division with only Cardiff and Portsmouth ranking below. The overperformance of scoring 14 from this xG comes back to the two wide margin wins that Burnley started the season with.

Preston are another low margin side. Their total xG for of 7.93 ranks them at 19th in the division for this metric – the 3-0 midweek win over Watford came from out of the blue as it was the first match this season where they have scored more than a solitary goal.

There have been two similar looking Lancashire derbies involving these sides already this season, Preston drew 0-0 with Blackburn and Burnley drew 1-1 with the same opponent. Preston’s total xGA of 13.41 is higher than ideal and makes a the conservative play of under 3.5 goals the pick rather than a larger, more risky play of under 2.5.

Two teams under new management for the 2024/25 season clash at Carrow Road with Johannes Hoff Thorup and Tim Walter bringing an entertaining look to Norwich and Hull respectively.

Both sides had some bedding-in issues to begin the season as they made big changes to the previous playing style so it’s best to water the research down to when we returned from the last international break, where the transfer window would have been closed and the players were more used to the new regimes.

In the four matches to take place in that timeframe, three of Norwich’s games have seen both teams to score and two have gone over 2.5 goals. Hull have also played three matches where both teams have scored with three games going over 2.5 goals. The last three matches of each team have seen both teams scoring. Hull’s last three matches read 3-1, 4-1, 3-1 wins and Norwich’s 4-1 and 3-2 wins plus a 1-1 draw.

This has the look of a back and forth thriller where goal markets are the order of the day. Over 2.5 and even over 3.5 goals appeal but BTTS looks like the best value.

Portsmouth’s poor start to the season got even worse in midweek when they shipped in six goals at Stoke. A result that leaves them planted firmly in the relegation zone and already four points away from the safety line.

They’ve conceded 19 goals in total. Even if you put the six conceded last time out down to a one-off freak event then a tally of 13 would still see them with the third-leakiest defence in the league. This is also evidenced in the underlying numbers where Portsmouth’s xGA of 15.8 is the worst in the league and over a full goal larger than next in line Watford.

Oxford are capable of winning at Fratton Park on Saturday and anyone backing them to do so shouldn’t be put off but there’s just enough doubt in their data to prevent us siding with them completely. They are slightly overperforming both their xG and xGA and, with that in mind, it’s best to get with the data that shows Portsmouth’s frailties and that is for Oxford to simply get on the scoresheet, something they’ve managed to do in every league match except for one so far this season.

After starting the season with four wins on the bounce in all competitions, Huddersfield have since lost seven of their last eight matches with the 4-0 victory over Bolton in the middle of those fixtures now looking like a freak result.

Maybe things will turn in the coming weeks. The midweek 1-0 defeat away to Birmingham should not count against them, the Blues look well above the level at the moment. The performance level in last weekend’s loss to Reading was far superior than what Huddersfield produced against Blackpool and Northampton in the two matches prior.

But if results are going to turn against Barnsley on Saturday then they’ll probably have to score more than once because Barnsley should at the very least get on the scoreboard.

The Tykes have scored in 11 of their 13 matches so far this season and one of the matches they didn’t register in was away to Manchester United in the Carabao Cup.

Barnsley’s have a potent goal threat from numerous outlets, strikers Stephen Humphrys and Sam Cosgrove are of different profiles but both are capable of finding the net whilst both Davis Keillor-Dunn and Adam Phillips who play as split tens off the striker are full of goal threat. Phillips himself, already has five League One goals this season.

There was a significant market move just prior to kick off before Wigan beat Peterborough 3-0 on Tuesday night. Whether that was a pro-Wigan stance or an anti-Peterborough position is unknown, but it’s worth looking for reasons to continue to oppose Posh.

The first thing that’s noticeable is that Peterborough haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. Although their attacking numbers look good and sustainable, putting yourself in a position where you require two goals a game to collect three points is not foundations that success can be built upon.

This reliability on scoring multiple goals a game becomes an even more significant problem when you face the team with the best defensive numbers in the division.

Stevenage have conceded just five goals in their nine league games at an xGA of 5.91. Only Birmingham run that tally close.

Their attacking numbers aren’t as impressive. They’ve scored just seven times in nine matches, underperforming their xG of 10.74. They’ve also got a stronger feel to them at home than on the road.

It’s a tricky game to call. A team that scores plenty against a team that rarely concedes and a team that doesn’t score against a team that can’t stop shipping goals. It comes down to preference and the solidity that a strong defence provides carries my selection.

Bromley’s two recent score draws with MK Dons and Chesterfield shouldn’t be sniffed at. The League Two newcomers, although 19th in the table are showing themselves to be capable at the level and no pushovers.

Their 12 goals scored so far is only bettered by eight teams in the league. Scoring goals is not a problem for them and they have the division’s current top scorer in Michael Cheek, who already has six goals to his name.

The attacking numbers look sustainable with the 12 scored coming from an xG of 12.4. Any Bromley concerns lie at the other end of the pitch where their xGA of 16.15 is only lower than Harrogate’s tally of 16.86. These aren’t numbers that make for good reading – especially when you’re about to come up against a Fleetwood side who are hitting their stride.

Fleetwood bagged six at Walsall in midweek. A Walsall side that prior to kick off had barely had a shot on target against them, yet alone six goals. Ronan Coughlan has scored four in his last five and is forming a great partnership with his countryman Ryan Graydon.

Prior to Doncaster’s win over Barrow in midweek the Yorkshire side had picked up just one point from nine in matches against Harrogate (0-2), MK Dons (1-1) and Chesterfield (0-3), where they managed more red cards than goals scored. Maybe the win over Barrow shows that they are back on track but the match does come with a tiny asterisk attached due to the amount of players both sides had absent down to both injuries and suspensions. It’s worth just holding fire on casting a Doncaster judgment for another match or two.

Grimsby provide tricky opposition. They’ve won three on the spin, including a 1-0 turnover of table-topping Gillingham in midweek on the road. Their matches are usually tight affairs with only the 4-1 defeat to Notts County early on in the season seeing a wider than one-goal margin in either direction.

It’s the goals scored tally that’s of interest for Saturday’s pick. Since the opening day 1-0 loss at Fleetwood, Grimsby have scored in every match in all competitions and they’ve played some strong opponents in that time – Notts County, Sheffield Wednesday, Chesterfield and Gillingham.