With teams coming off a gruelling festive league schedule it will be interesting to see how many changes both sides make for this FA Cup 3rd round match. With rotation expected to be prioritised over team cohesion it could be worth opposing goals in this early kick-off.

Birmingham’s League One matches this season average 2.2 goals per game. The average drops to 2.27 goals per game when Birmingham are the home side. The average goals per game is Birmingham’s last 5 fixtures has dropped to 1.6. Just 7 of Birmingham’s 31 matches in all competitions this season have had 4 goals or more.

Lincoln’s League One matches this season average 2.32 goals per game. It drops slightly to 2.23 goals per game when Lincoln are the away side. In Lincoln’s last 5 fixtures the average goals per game is just 1.4. Only 8 of Lincoln’s 32 matches in all competitions this season have had 4 or more goals.

Lincoln have scored just twice in their last 5 matches and Birmingham have conceded just once in their last 5. The chances are that the big spending Midlanders can overpower the Imps but the goal expectancy is low.

Bristol City are at their best when playing in transition and a home tie v Premier League Wolves gives the Robins a chance to cause an FA Cup 3rd round shock.

Bristol City have picked up 10 points from their last possible 12 in the Championship. They are in good form and full of confidence. The shift in results has coincided with Liam Manning reverting to a 5-man defence and a box midfield which has seen key players playing in their preferred positions and gives Bristol City a round pegs round holes feel.

In contrast to Bristol City, Wolves have a vulnerable look and are suffering from a raft of injuries. They were dismantled 3-0 by Nottingham Forest on Monday Night Football. Wolves may still have enough about them in the attacking phase of the game to navigate their way through the tie but Bristol City should at the very least trouble the scoreboard.

Wolves lined up with Matt Doherty, Santiago Bueno and Rayan Ait-Nouri as a back 3 versus Nottingham Forest and that defence doesn’t scream clean sheets.

When these 2 teams met at the Riverside in November Blackburn took all 3 points with a 1-0 away win – we’re expecting another low scoring match for Saturday’s FA Cup 3rd round tie.

Since back-to-back 3-3 draws in the matches immediately before and after Christmas, Middlesbrough have prioritised a more sturdier look for their last 3 fixtures. These 3 games have ended 0-0, 0-1 and 1-1. The 0-0 draw with Burnley had a combined total xG of 1.18. Middlesbrough’s 1-0 win at Hull produced a total xG of 1.20 and the 1-1 draw with Cardiff had a total xG of 1.32.

Blackburn matches have been low scoring all season – averaging 2.04 goals per game. The average drops to 1.92 goals per game when Blackburn are the away side. The average has further dropped over Blackburn’s last 5 fixtures – to 1.8 goals per game.

Middlesbrough and Blackburn have played each other 15 times in the last 10 years with none of the matches have more than 3 goals – Saturday’s game can take that number to 16.

Liverpool have the opportunity to play some fringe players and youngster in their 3rd round FA Cup tie v Accrington. The likes of Jarell Quansah, Konstantinos Tsimikas, Wataru Endo, Tyler Morton and Federico Chiesa should comfortably have enough quality to see off their League Two opposition. Throwing a clean sheet into the betting slip makes the favourites a palatable price. Liverpool have already won to nil on 12 occasions this season and can make it 13 on Saturday.

Accrington have failed to score in matches v Tranmere, Notts County, Walsall, Crewe and Salford this season. Of course, they’ll be doing all they can to have a moment of Anfield pleasure but that doesn’t mean a fairytale is likely.

Accrington will have their work cut out to create chances of any sort. They have the 21st lowest average possession percentage in League Two this season with 44% – they can expect that number to be below 30% on Saturday. They also register low on the charts for touches inside the opponents box – 22nd in League Two. A routine Liverpool win awaits.

Rotherham games have been low scoring throughout the 2024/25 season. Their 23 games played average 1.91 goals per game with the average at 2.18 goals per game when Rotherham are the home side.

In the last 5 Rotherham matches the goal average is 1.00 per game with 3 1-0 scorelines, a 1-1 and a 0-0. In total, 21 out of 23 of Rotherham’s League One matches this season have ended with under 3.5 goals.

Bolton are having a stuttering season with manager Ian Evatt seemingly under pressure from the outside but still having the support of the club’s ownership. They are 4 points behind the play-off places but with at least 1 game in hand over the majority of teams above them in the table.

A look at Bolton’s goal numbers show that their League One matches this season average 3.00 goals per game with the number staying the same when Bolton are the away team. The average has dropped to 2.4 goals per game over Bolton’s last 5 matches.

7 out of 23 Bolton matches have had 4 or more goals this season but none since they played Mansfield on December 3rd, which was 6 matches ago. This should be a closely fought, low margin game.

Grimsby have had a peculiar look to them for a large majority of the season. Flirting with the play-off places despite having a negative goal difference and drawing just 1 of their 25 league matches so far.

No team have conceded more home goals this season than Grimsby who have let in 21 goals in 12 home matches. They have conceded twice in a game in 13 out of 25 matches this season with Cheltenham, Barrow, Doncaster, Walsall, MK Dons, Accrington and Crewe all scoring twice or more in away matches at Blundell Park.

Only Walsall have scored more goals than Notts County in League Two this season and no team have scored more away goals than the Magpies’ 22.

Notts County have scored twice or more in 7 out of 13 away League Two matches this season and 12 out of 24 matches overall. This looks like a perfect scenario for more away Notts County goals.

Walsall are the clear best team in League Two. The Saddlers have opened up a 10-point gap at the top of the table despite having played a game less than most of the chasers. They and Salford are the only teams in the division to not experience defeat in their last 5 matches with Mat Sadler’s men now unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.

Walsall’s home record this season reads W9, D2, L1 and they are the highest scoring home team in the league as well as the highest overall scoring team. They also have the best home defensive record in the league with just 6 goals conceded in 11 matches.

Nigel Adkins’ men are 20th in the table and but for a win over bottom side Carlisle last weekend would be deep in relegation mire.

Tranmere have the worst away record in the division with just 8 points win from a possible 33 and with an average of 0.63 goals scored per away game.

There’s no need to overthink this. Best home side in the league v the worst away side. Walsall win.