Goias v Bragantino
This Saturday in Goiânia, in the central west of Brazil, Goiás welcomes Red Bull Bragantino in a match that has enormous significance for both teams. That’s because Esmeraldino has been improving his performance while Braga is declining. And both teams want to escape relegation.
Coach Jair Ventura will not be able to count on forward Pedro Raul, who is suspended for his third yellow card. Therefore, Nicolas should enter the starting lineup.
Playing at home, Goiás has an average of 1.33 goals scored while Bragantino manages to score at least 1 goal as a visitor. So, the perspective is that we will have the ball at the back of the net.
Mauricio Barbieri’s team has just been eliminated from the Copa Libertadores, the first participation in its history. This happened right at the moment of Braga’s fall in the table. It is good to remember that Bragantino came to lead the championship in the first rounds.
The team went six games without a win, which meant that the president of the club had to announce that coach Barbieri would not be fired. This helped to avoid a probable crisis in Paulista’s team.
It is good to remember that Goiás is the team with the lowest possession in the Brasileirão, an average of 40%. And playing in its domains, it is the second team that finishes less, with an average of 8 shots per game. Bragantino is the fourth team that finishes more as a visitor, with an average of 14 shots per match.
Speaking of Match Odds, there is a higher winning probability for RBB at 42%. Goiás Win with 32% and Draw 27%. Particularly, I think this victory for the visitor is possible, but unlikely. And in the corner market, the average of both is 6.3 per game.
Sao Paulo v Ceara
The famous Morumbi stadium will host a very interesting game this Saturday: São Paulo versus Ceará. São Paulo is in third place in the table, with 12 points, and Ceará is in 19th place, with only 5 points.
And then you will ask yourself “why is this game interesting if the distance between the two is huge in the table?” If São Paulo’s must win is the search for the championship lead, Ceará wants to escape relegation. And they have conditions for that!
Dorival Junior’s team has just qualified for the next phase of the Copa Sulamericana with the best campaign in the competition’s history. This shows how the team from Fortaleza is focused on international competition, and with a squad unable to compete on several fronts equally.
With highlights such as forwards Mendoza and Vina, and midfielder Rodrigo Lindoso, in addition to playmaker Lucas Lima, Ceará is a much more competent team than it has been showing in the Brasileirão. Maybe now, after the historic classification in Sulamericana, the team will be able to play well in the national championship.
São Paulo, on the other hand, has been increasing its performance, being the fourth team that most hits passes, with an average of 91%, in addition to being able to score 2.6 goals with an average of 1.8 expected goals (xG) per game in Morumbi. When playing at home, Tricolor is very strong.
For the duel against Ceará, coach Rogério Ceni will not count with fullback Rafinha, and midfielder Gabriel Sara and center forward Nikão. But he must go to the field with his maximum strength, including Arboleda, Rodrigo Nestor, Luciano and the argentinean goalscorer Calleri.
Corners market points to a high volume of 13 shots average. So far this season in the Serie A, São Paulo have averaged 3 Points Per Game at home matches and Ceará 1.33 Points Per Game at away matches. Because of that, we have São Paulo with a 57% chance of winning, against 18% for Ceará and 25% for a draw.
Coritiba v Botafogo
Botafogo’s start to life back in Brazil’s top-flight has been remarkable, after seven games, they sit in fifth place with; three wins, three draws and only a single defeat. Credit has to go to Portuguese manager Luis Castro. Castro since coming in has made Botofogo a side that likes to keep possession of the ball in an attempt to dictate the pattern of the game. This season, they average a possession of 53.15% (the fourth highest in the league) which backs up their intention to keep hold of the ball rather than play on the counter-attack. Their expected goals for the season is at (10.01) which is lower than the eleven they have scored. This is mainly down to top scorer Erison who has five goals in seven games.
Botafogo are currently on an eight-game unbeaten run, their last outing was a 1-1 draw away from home against America Mineiro. In truth, Botafogo didn’t put in their best display and will feel relieved to get something out of the game.
Their opponents, Coritiba suffered a 2-0 loss to Atlético Goianiense in their last league match and even more worrying for them is that they saw both their centre halfs sent off. Henrique and Luciano Castan will be unavailable, meaning the untried Guillermo de Los Santos and Marcio are likely to start here. That should play into the hands of Botafogo and more likely Erison who will be licking his lips and the chance to play against a backline who have hardly played this season. Coritiba have a perfect home record so far with three wins from three, whereas Botafogo has been quite inconsistent with a draw, a loss and a win from their three games on the road. However, the away side are unbeaten in their last eight games against Coritiba and in this fixture last year, Botafogo enjoyed a 1-0 victory. With Coxa missing regular starters in defence, the side from Rio de Janeiro will be confident of extending their unbeaten run here
Atletico MG v Avai
Champions Atletico Mineiro have had a bit of a gap since their last league match which was a 2-0 victory over Atlético Goianiense on May 14th. Since then, they have enjoyed a victory in the Copa do Brasil over Brasiliense, a 3-1 win over Independiente Del Valle in the Copa Libertadores, as well as, a shock 2-1 loss in midweek Deportes Tolima. Despite the loss, Galo created 24 chances at goal, seven on target whilst having 72% of the ball. They will be hoping that the result was a freak one as they come into the match with Avai.
Atletico are one of the best attacking forces in the league, they like to take the game to their opponent. So far in the league, they average 18.3 shots per game which is the highest in the Brazilian Serie A. They also like to retain the ball, their 60% average possession is the highest in the division. In terms of shots faced, Galo’s 8.4 per game have them as the best defence in the league. Despite this, the chances they do concede, have more than often led to goals, which has resulted in them drawing three games they should have really won.
Avai come into this game at the worst possible time. They haven’t won in their last two games after defeats to Juventude and Athletico Paranaense. In these games, Avai had an XG of 1.10 and 2.08, which was higher than their opponents but they still failed to avoid defeat. The side from Florianópolis like to keep the ball with nice intricate passing but they’re not going to be able to do that in this game which is likely to put their backline under pressure. Leão da Ilha will be without midfielder Bruno Silva due to a ban, which is a huge blow for their already slim chances in this game.
Atletico Mineiro are clear favourites coming into this game and their attacking style should see them notch up a few goals in the process. The likes of Hulk and Nacho Fernandez should have way too much quality for Avai to handle.
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