Games between Fiorentina and Inter Milan often produce plenty of goals. When looking at the last thirteen head to head games, at both venues, the numbers are staggering. In terms of goals, those matches have produced a total of 52, and that’s an average of four goals per game. That stretch included a couple of thrillers such as a 5-4 win for Fiorentina and a 4-3 win for Inter Milan last term.

Interestingly, during that same run of games, 11 of those 13 resulted in both teams finding the back of the net and that’s worth considering here too. Inter Milan have scored 49 goals in their 20 league matches this season and it would be a surprise to see the league’s top scorers draw a blank here. Therefore they are fancied to score against a defence that is conceding one per game at home.

The visitors also hold the record for the league’s best defence, leaking just four goals on the road, but it’s certainly worth considering the hosts grabbing a goal in this one. The heart of the Inter Milan’s midfield will be missing as Nicolo Barrella and Hakan Calhanoglu are both ruled out through suspension and that could disrupt an otherwise solid spine of this formidable and robust engine.

Inter Milan have been breathtaking at times from an offensive perspective, and they currently top the charts in terms of xG, goals scored and chances created. Inzaghi’s side average almost five shots on target per game, and interestingly they had eleven in the reverse fixture and four in this game last season. Lautaro Martinez has been a large part of their success, but there is value elsewhere.

With both Barella and Calhanoglu both serving their respective suspensions, there will be opportunities for a couple of fringe players to come into this Inter Milan midfield, and Davide Frattesi is likely to earn a starting place. The Italian has made just one start all season, but is a threat going forward, highlighted by the five shots on target he’s had during his game time, and that’s an average of 1.18 per 90 minutes.

Marcus Thuram is another of the Inter Milan side fancied to have a shot on target in this one. The Frenchman is averaging 1.17 per 90 minutes in Serie A and had a big game in the reverse fixture. In fact, he took a total of 6 shots in that match with two of those working the goalkeeper, while he also scored and provided an assist. He’s also amassed one on target in three of his last five league games.

Inter Milan are one of the least fouled teams in Serie A, drawing an average of 10.45 fouls per game. However, with their midfield bite missing, it’s possible they could be a little more vulnerable in this particular contest as Barella and Calhanoglu are rarely fouled, so that could skew figures. It’s noteworthy that Fiorentina committed 12 in the reverse fixture, more than their seasonal average.

One likely candidate in that midfield area is Alfred Duncan. The Ghanaian has already committed 15 fouls in his 17 appearances in the league this season, which is almost a foul per game, and as a result has collected a couple of yellow cards for his offenses. In the absence of the midfield generals for Inter Milan, Duncan is likely to attempt to stamp his authority on their replacements in the centre.

His midfield partner, Arthur Melo, is also potentially susceptible in the fouls market. The former Barcelona midfielder has made 20 appearances in the league this term and has committed 14 fouls in those games and he’s taken in this game. It’s interesting to consider that the Brazilian made a foul in the reverse fixture and he’s likely to be very combative as they look to dominate the midfield.