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Both teams have scored in Nice's last four games, with Nice conceding in seven of their eight Ligue 1 matches so far.

Their attack has been looking sharp too, scoring in their last three home games, including a 2–1 win over Lille, who have the joint-best defence in the league alongside Lorient.

Rennes, meanwhile, have the joint-best attack in the league alongside Marseille, scoring 18 goals in eight games. They're averaging 16 shots and 1.96 xG per match.

Their defence has been a different story, though. Rennes have one of the worst xGA records in the league, averaging 1.90 per game, and are giving away 5.6 shots on target per match.

BTTS looks even more promising when you look at Rennes' away record. They've conceded nine goals in just three games, including four against Lyon and another four against Paris FC.

Bodø/Glimt and Viking have been the two best attacking teams in Norway this season, both averaging more than two goals per game after 24 matches.

Bodø/Glimt have been particularly dangerous at home, averaging 22 shots, more than eight shots on target and almost 3 xG per game.

Even though they've got the best defensive record in the league, they've conceded in their last four home games, including against Rosenborg, Sandefjord and Kristiansund.

Viking, meanwhile, have scored in 11 of their 12 away games and have the league's top scorer, Peter Christiansen, with 15 goals. Zlatko Tripić has also chipped in with 19 assists.

The visitors are also in great form, scoring 19 goals in their last five league games.

With the top two teams fighting for the title and both attacks looking dangerous, there's a good chance we'll see goals at both ends.

Elversberg have adapted to the Bundesliga really well as a newly promoted side, only losing three of their opening seven matches and netting 12 goals across these games.

They’ve won two of their three home matches, with only Bayern beating them in front of their own fans so far. 

Those three games have produced 15 goals (5.0 per game), with their most recent home game in the Bundesliga seeing seven goals as they beat Augsburg 4-3.

Elversberg have only managed to keep one clean sheet across their seven games in the Bundesliga, despite the wider success they’ve seen in the early stages of the season.  

Mainz interestingly boast the strongest away record of any side in the Bundesliga, winning all three of their matches and netting 10 goals in the process. 

However, they’ve only kept one shutout across their last six matches - which is a record that will encourage the home side as they look to pick up more crucial points to boost their hopes of survival.

Roma are one of only three sides in Serie A who are yet to lose a game, winning six of their nine matches and scoring the second most goals of any side (23), behind league leaders Inter (25).

Udinese are one of only three sides in the Italian top flight who are yet to win a game at home, losing four of their five matches in front of their own fans. 

The main concern for Udinese is that they’ve only managed to score two goals across these games - the joint lowest of any side at home in Serie A this term. 

Roma have won two and drawn two of their four away assignments in Serie A, with those draws coming against Napoli and Como. They’ve scored nine goals across these games as well, which is a scoring power that Udinese simply can’t match.

Udinese have lost six of their last seven matches ahead of this clash, only claiming a point against a Parma side who are struggling towards the bottom of the table as well in a 0-0 draw.

Betis have been really impressive at home in LaLiga this season, winning four of their five matches in front of their own fans.

The only side to beat them at home domestically this season has been Barcelona, who simply outscored Manuel Pellegrini’s side, and Betis still did well to score twice despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that clash.

Malaga have really struggled on their return to the Spanish top flight, failing to win any of their 10 matches and sitting rock bottom of the table. They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games, only three sides in the division have a weaker backline than the away side here.

Malaga’s firepower on the road is particularly alarming. They’ve only scored twice across five away matches, leaving them vulnerable against sides like Betis. They’ve struggled against the more established side in LaLiga, losing to nil against both Madrid sides and conceding five to Real Sociedad a few weeks ago.

Betis have been really impressive at home in LaLiga this season, winning four of their five matches in front of their own fans.

The only side to beat them at home domestically this season has been Barcelona, who simply outscored Manuel Pellegrini’s side, and Betis still did well to score twice despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that clash.

Malaga have really struggled on their return to the Spanish top flight, failing to win any of their 10 matches and sitting rock bottom of the table. They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games, only three sides in the division have a weaker backline than the away side here.

Malaga’s firepower on the road is particularly alarming. They’ve only scored twice across five away matches, leaving them vulnerable against sides like Betis. They’ve struggled against the more established side in LaLiga, losing to nil against both Madrid sides and conceding five to Real Sociedad a few weeks ago.

These sides have met twice already this year with BTTS landing in both matches as Stuttgart came away 3-1 and 4-1 winners.

Leverkusen may get a bit more joy here given that Stuttgart have only managed to win two of their opening seven Bundesliga matches, but their games have still been seeing plenty of goals with 23 in total so far (3.29 per game).

Neither of these sides have been good at keeping clean sheets in the early stages of the Bundesliga season. Stuttgart have kept just one shutout across their seven games, conceding an xG of 17.5 - which is the second highest xG against in the Bundesliga behind Augsburg (19.6).

Stuttgart’s early season slump is not that alarming to me, especially when considering that they’re competing in the Champions League this season - which will have had an effect on their domestic performances.

They still have the firepower to get on the scoresheet against this Leverkusen side, who have only kept out two sides in the Bundesliga this term.

Phillip Tietz is Mainz's top scorer in the Bundesliga, with five goals in seven games, including four away from home.

The striker is averaging over four shots and 1.57 shots on target per 90 minutes.

Tietz has had at least three shots and hit the target in all seven league games so far. He's also scored in all three away games.

Mainz have been looking sharp too, scoring 16 goals in seven games and averaging 2.1 xG per match.

Elversberg, meanwhile, have one of the weakest defences in the league, conceding 15 goals and averaging 2.3 xGA per game.

They've conceded at least twice in all three home games and are giving away an average of 21 shots per match.

With Tietz in great form and facing a defence that gives away so many chances, there's a good chance he'll get on the scoresheet again.

Craig McLeish’s men ended a five-game losing run with a hard-fought 2-1 win over Dundee last weekend before putting another point on the board in midweek by holding Hibs to a 1-1 draw.

The Buddies also scored and created a number of opportunities in their most recent away match at Aberdeen, which should give them confidence ahead of this weekend’s meeting with a struggling Motherwell team.

Alfred Johansson’s side are in a real slump, having gone seven Scottish Premiership matches without a win, coming away empty-handed from six of those contests.

Indeed, the Steelmen’s only point during that run came in Wednesday night’s 2-2 draw away at St Johnstone, which adds weight to the case for St Mirren to make their mark at Fir Park.

Partick Thistle look well placed to maintain their place at the top of the Scottish Championship by seeing off Morton on Saturday.

The Jags hit the summit last weekend by sweeping aside Stenhousemuir 3-0 at Firhill.

Mark Wilson’s side went through the entirety of last season’s league campaign without losing at home and have yet to taste defeat in six Championship outings in front of their own supporters this term, winning four and drawing two. 

Three of those four victories saw Thistle score at least twice, and I’m expecting them to do so again against Morton.

While the Ton have won their last two league games, both victories came against Queen’s Park and Arbroath, who sit alongside them in the lower reaches of the table. This will be a much tougher test. 

What’s more, Morton have lost three of their five league games away from home this season, conceding multiple goals in each of those defeats.

I think Ross County can return to winning ways in Scottish League One by defeating East Kilbride on Saturday.

The Staggies saw their six-game winning streak in the third tier come to an end on Tuesday night, when title rivals Hamilton held them to a 1-1 draw.

However, Stuart Kettlewell’s side remain top of the table and are still unbeaten in the league, having won 10 of their opening 12 matches of the season.

County have also won five of their six away games, including each of their last three.

It is also worth pointing out that the league leaders thrashed East Kilbride 4-0 at home in this season’s reverse fixture.

As for Mick Kennedy’s men, they have won just one of their last four league games at home, which strengthens the case for backing County to claim maximum points at K Park.

I’m also expecting Hamilton to get back on track in Scottish League One by getting the better of Montrose on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s men should return home in high spirits after coming from behind to earn a 1-1 draw in Dingwall on Tuesday night, keeping them level on points with Ross County at the top of the table.

The Accies have won all six of their home league games this season and will fancy their chances of extending that sequence against a Montrose side they thumped 5-0 away from home earlier in the campaign.

While the visitors moved up to third place with last week’s 3-0 home win over Peterhead, they have found points harder to come by on their travels this term.

Indeed, Stuart Petrie’s side have already lost on the road at Airdrie, Alloa and Ross County this season, and I expect the Gable Endies to suffer the same fate in South Lanarkshire.

Stranraer are the form team in Scottish League Two, and I think they can avoid defeat in their top-of-the-table clash with Clyde on Saturday.

The Blues are enjoying a nine-match unbeaten run in the league and have impressively taken maximum points from seven of those games.

Chris Aitken’s side have also been scoring for fun in recent months, hitting five in a win over Elgin before going one better by putting Annan to the sword 6-1.

Stair Park has long been a difficult place to visit, where Stranraer are unbeaten in their last four league games, triumphing in three of those. 

Clyde’s midweek exertions could also play into the hosts’ hands, as Darren Young’s side needed extra time and penalties to get past Penicuik in the Scottish Cup on Tuesday night.

Add in the Bully Wee’s return of just one win from five League Two away games this season, and Stranraer look worth backing on the double chance.

There was a real sour taste when O’Hare left Sheffield United for Wrexham, with fans labelling it a sideways move and one that was solely about money.

I expect O’Hare will get a rather cold reception and could be targeted more so than usual.

His numbers for drawing fouls are excellent anyway, he draws an average of 2.08 per 90 minutes and he’s been fouled two or more times in three of his last four.

He’ll be up against Kalvin Phillips who ranks high for fouls in The Blades’ squad. The ex-England international commits 1.69 per 90 minutes.

This is a nice addition to the bet builder at around 1.33. Burrows’ numbers are very strong.

The left-back has drawn an average of 1.61 fouls per 90 minutes. He’s only recently returned from a long injury lay-off, but across his three starts he’s drawn five fouls, with at least one drawn in each match.

Issa Kabore will be his direct opponent down that flank, he has committed an average of 1.15 fouls per 90 minutes.

Burrows has a wonderful left-foot and likes to get forward, he can be a real danger and Wrexham will need to shut him down.

Veteran striker Patrick Bamford is on to five goals for the season and netted at the weekend as The Blades drew with Derby County.

He netted a brace in his last home game prior to that too when they beat Lincoln City 3-0.

He’s averaged 0.80 shots on target per 90 minutes and has had a shot on target in seven of his 11 Championship starts.

Wrexham have conceded an average of 4.08 shots on target per 90 minutes and I think Sheffield United can really get at them here, which leads me on to the final pick of the bet builder.

This isn’t the most exciting game for a Friday night. Maybe it looked set to be when it was scheduled but both sides have been lacklustre.

That being said, I’m especially unimpressed with Wrexham. It’s surely getting to a point where they part ways with Parkinson. They’ve spent a lot and there’s little cohesion in the squad.

They’ve won just one of their last seven matches on the road and have slumped down to 14th place following defeat to Blackburn on Saturday.

They’ve averaged 1.31 xG in away matches and scored an average of just 0.83 goals from that.

The Blades haven’t been spectacular but this selection has landed more often than not at home, with the hosts avoiding defeat in six of their eight matches.

Stranraer are the form team in Scottish League Two, and I think they can avoid defeat in their top-of-the-table clash with Clyde on Saturday.

The Blues are enjoying a nine-match unbeaten run in the league and have impressively taken maximum points from seven of those games.

Chris Aitken’s side have also been scoring for fun in recent months, hitting five in a win over Elgin before going one better by putting Annan to the sword 6-1.

Stair Park has long been a difficult place to visit, where Stranraer are unbeaten in their last four league games, triumphing in three of those. 

Clyde’s midweek exertions could also play into the hosts’ hands, as Darren Young’s side needed extra time and penalties to get past Penicuik in the Scottish Cup on Tuesday night.

Add in the Bully Wee’s return of just one win from five League Two away games this season, and Stranraer look worth backing on the double chance.

I’m also expecting Hamilton to get back on track in Scottish League One by getting the better of Montrose on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s men should return home in high spirits after coming from behind to earn a 1-1 draw in Dingwall on Tuesday night, keeping them level on points with Ross County at the top of the table.

The Accies have won all six of their home league games this season and will fancy their chances of extending that sequence against a Montrose side they thumped 5-0 away from home earlier in the campaign.

While the visitors moved up to third place with last week’s 3-0 home win over Peterhead, they have found points harder to come by on their travels this term.

Indeed, Stuart Petrie’s side have already lost on the road at Airdrie, Alloa and Ross County this season, and I expect the Gable Endies to suffer the same fate in South Lanarkshire.

Morgan Rogers scored from the penalty spot in Chelsea’s EFL Cup clash against Liverpool during the week, and was the most dangerous player on the pitch for the away side.

Rogers had two shots on target in that clash, taking six shots overall. He’s been really confident since arriving at Chelsea, and has had a shot on target in five of his eight starts in the Premier League.

What really stands out to me about Rogers’ game this season is his shot volume. He’s had at least one shot in every Premier League game, taking multiple shots in seven of these matches - evening reaching 3+ shots on four occasions.

Only Cole Palmer (25) has had more shots in the Premier League for Chelsea than Rogers (20), and with Joao Pedro set to be sidelined here - both should be even more important to Chelsea’s chances of success.

Bryan Mbeumo leads the Man Utd squad for shots, shots on target and goals in the Premier League this season and has had a shot on target in every Premier League game so far - managing multiple shots on target in three of these games.

Benjamin Sesko is still sidelined, and isn’t expected to return to action until January - so we can expect Bryan Mbeumo to play as Man Utd’s main striker until then. Mbeumo has been one of the most consistent finishers in the Premier League over the last few seasons, so it’s no surprise that Carrick sees him as a number nine in Sesko’s absence.

Man Utd are averaging 5.00 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, only three sides in the division have found the target more often than Carrick’s side despite their poor form over recent weeks. They’ve also taken more shots than any other side (19.38 per game), so there should be plenty of service for Man Utd’s top scorer.

I think Man Utd have missed the presence of Amad Diallo in the early parts of the season, with the winger only recently coming back into the side after injury.

Amad has been fouled twice in each of his last two Premier League appearances against Bournemouth and Leeds. Only two Man Utd players won more fouls than Amad in the Premier League last season, who averaged 1.46 fouls won per 90 across his 32 appearances.

Amad didn’t start in this fixture last season, only coming on for the final 10 minutes, but did play the full 90 against Chelsea when the sides met at Old Trafford - drawing two fouls on that occasion with Chelsea committing 14 fouls in total. 

Mike Penders redeemed himself after a shaky display against Tottenham last week, making three crucial saves as Chelsea faced Liverpool in the EFL Cup.

He saved a penalty in the shootout too, and didn’t look too affected by the mistake he made against Tottenham last week - punching the ball into his own net. 

Prior to his injury, Martinez was forced into making 25 saves across just six starts in the Premier League (4.29 per 90). That is clearly a keeper that is being overworked, and isn’t being offered much protection by the defensive structure in front of him.

Every side will be eager to test Penders, he’s not that experienced at this level - and that mistake he made against Tottenham will only encourage opposition sides to test the young keeper with more speculative efforts.

Penders made three saves in Chelsea’s 2-0 defeat to Tottenham last time out, and now has the task of keeping out a Man Utd side who have had more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season, as well as the third most shots on target.

Adam Smith drew three fouls during Bournemouth’s 3-0 victory at Man United last weekend - no Bournemouth player drew more infringements in that game.

What the 35-year-old lacks in athleticism, he certainly makes up for with his experience, and he can be quite a difficult player to come up against. Smith is averaging 1.67 fouls drawn per 90 this season, and he has landed this selection in eight out of ten starts overall. 

Leeds have been a good side to target for committing fouls this season, and they have racked up 50 infringements in their last three games alone. That includes 14 fouls against Sunderland, 16 against Man United, and 20 against Arsenal.

Enzo Le Fee has been a magnet for drawing fouls this season, and he was fouled twice against Leeds last weekend. The Frenchman is averaging 2.4 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he has landed this bet in six out of nine starts overall.

Le Fee is given plenty of freedom by Regis Le Bris in that advanced midfield spot, and he likes to spot around and pick up pockets of space. 

Le Fee excels at using his body to draw contact and win free-kicks in dangerous positions, and he will find duels against Caleb Yirenkyi in midfield this weekend. The Coventry midfielder is averaging 3.1 fouls per 90 across all competitions this campaign.

Ruben Dias is averaging 1.6 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the City squad.

He has been an aggressive presence at the back for Enzo Maresca, who likes his centre backs to be aggressive in their duels to win possession back quickly and sustain pressure. Dias has recorded multiple infringements in five of his last six starts, with the only miss coming against PSG in that stretch. However, Dias was replaced at half-time. 

The Portuguese centre back will now have to deal with Charalampos Kostoulas, who has been fouled 11 times in his last seven starts. That is a matchup to keep an eye on.

There was no love lost for Conor Gallagher last weekend, as he took just 16 minutes to pick up a yellow card against his former club, Chelsea.

The midfielder came on to replace the injured James Maddison, and was booked shortly after for a cynical foul. With Maddison expected to miss out this weekend with a groin injury, Gallagher looks set to start. He is averaging 1.57 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, and he landed this selection in the last game he started. 

Gallagher recorded two infringements against Man United, and he will now find duels against the likes of Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada in midfield. The Palace pair have combined for 2.9 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season.

David Affengruber averaged 1.1 fouls per 90 for Elche last season, and that figure has increased to 1.4 fouls per 90 since arriving at Fulham. He has been called for six infringements in his last three starts alone, which shows how he has taken a bit of time to adjust to life in the Premier League. 

He will have to deal with the in-form Nicolas Jackson this weekend, which promises to be a difficult assignment. Aston Villa in general have been a team to target for drawing fouls this campaign, ranking fifth in the division for total fouls suffered. Based on that, this looks like a great matchup to target Affengruber for a couple of infringements.

Bournemouth have been in excellent form going forward, scoring 14 goals in their last five matches alone. That includes three successive 3-0 victories against Aston Villa, AC Milan and Man United. Marco Rose’s men seem to be playing with much more confidence recently, and their front line is firing. They have cleared this line on their own in four of their last five games. 

Leeds haven’t quite been as expansive, but this selection landed in both league meetings last season. It finished 2-2 at the Vitality Stadium, and 2-2 in the reverse fixture at Elland Road. Once again, another even encounter is expected at the weekend.

Man City have won six of their eight home matches across all competitions this season, and their recent games have been exciting to watch.

Over 3.5 goals has landed in five successive matches at the Etihad Stadium, with both teams finding the back of the net in all of those. Ipswich and Sunderland combined for a total of five goals in Manchester, while AEK Athens also scored against City in the Champions League. 

The Seagulls found plenty of success in Manchester midweek, recording 17 shots of which six hit the target. They were unfortunate to lose out on penalties in the end, but will be confident of causing problems again in the final third.

Betis have been really impressive at home in LaLiga this season, winning four of their five matches in front of their own fans.

The only side to beat them at home domestically this season has been Barcelona, who simply outscored Manuel Pellegrini’s side, and Betis still did well to score twice despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that clash.

Malaga have really struggled on their return to the Spanish top flight, failing to win any of their 10 matches and sitting rock bottom of the table. They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games, only three sides in the division have a weaker backline than the away side here.

Malaga’s firepower on the road is particularly alarming. They’ve only scored twice across five away matches, leaving them vulnerable against sides like Betis. They’ve struggled against the more established side in LaLiga, losing to nil against both Madrid sides and conceding five to Real Sociedad a few weeks ago.

I’m also expecting Hamilton to get back on track in Scottish League One by getting the better of Montrose on Saturday.

Darian McKinnon’s men should return home in high spirits after coming from behind to earn a 1-1 draw in Dingwall on Tuesday night, keeping them level on points with Ross County at the top of the table.

The Accies have won all six of their home league games this season and will fancy their chances of extending that sequence against a Montrose side they thumped 5-0 away from home earlier in the campaign.

While the visitors moved up to third place with last week’s 3-0 home win over Peterhead, they have found points harder to come by on their travels this term.

Indeed, Stuart Petrie’s side have already lost on the road at Airdrie, Alloa and Ross County this season, and I expect the Gable Endies to suffer the same fate in South Lanarkshire.

I think Ross County can return to winning ways in Scottish League One by defeating East Kilbride on Saturday.

The Staggies saw their six-game winning streak in the third tier come to an end on Tuesday night, when title rivals Hamilton held them to a 1-1 draw.

However, Stuart Kettlewell’s side remain top of the table and are still unbeaten in the league, having won 10 of their opening 12 matches of the season.

County have also won five of their six away games, including each of their last three.

It is also worth pointing out that the league leaders thrashed East Kilbride 4-0 at home in this season’s reverse fixture.

As for Mick Kennedy’s men, they have won just one of their last four league games at home, which strengthens the case for backing County to claim maximum points at K Park.

Southampton boast the strongest home record of any side in the Championship this season, winning five of their six matches at St Mary’s and only dropping points in a 0-0 draw against Bolton - where they had 14 shots and generated an xG of 2.19 with 62% possession.

QPR have won two of their six matches on the road in the Championship this term, with those victories coming very early on in the campaign against Portsmouth and Blackburn. They’ve struggled more recently on the road, notably losing 3-0 to Birmingham in their last away assignment.

Southampton have only conceded four goals across their six home games, which could be the point of difference between these sides. Only Swansea (3) have conceded fewer goals at home than Southampton in the Championship this term, and with three clean sheets from their last four games - QPR could struggle to get on the scoresheet.

There’s quite a clear disparity between these sides when it comes to their goalscoring numbers - West Ham have scored double the number of goals than West Brom in the Championship this season.

No side has scored more goals than West Ham in the Championship (32) and it is this scoring power that sets them apart from most of the sides in the division. They have six players who have scored at least three goals in the Championship this season, showing that they aren’t just reliant on Bowen - who has six goals.

West Brom have only scored seven goals across their six away matches in the Championship this season. They’ve tended to struggle against the better sides in the division, despite remaining quite consistent overall - losing to Middlesbrough and Wolves already this term.

Betis have been really impressive at home in LaLiga this season, winning four of their five matches in front of their own fans.

The only side to beat them at home domestically this season has been Barcelona, who simply outscored Manuel Pellegrini’s side, and Betis still did well to score twice despite dropping down to 10 men in the second half of that clash.

Malaga have really struggled on their return to the Spanish top flight, failing to win any of their 10 matches and sitting rock bottom of the table. They’ve conceded 19 goals across these games, only three sides in the division have a weaker backline than the away side here.

Malaga’s firepower on the road is particularly alarming. They’ve only scored twice across five away matches, leaving them vulnerable against sides like Betis. They’ve struggled against the more established side in LaLiga, losing to nil against both Madrid sides and conceding five to Real Sociedad a few weeks ago.

Stockport are flying at the moment. I backed them as part of my Early 26/27 Outright to be promoted and they look on course to achieve that, sitting second in the division and notably winning four of their six home matches.

Wimbledon have really struggled on the road this season, winning just one of their six away assignments. The real worry for Wimbledon here is their scoring power, they've only scored five goals across these games - only four sides in League One have scored fewer goals on the road than Wimbledon this term.

Stockport also have Kyle Wootton leading the line, who has been in great form in the early stages of the season. He's netted nine goals across his 13 starts, which is more than any other player in League One this term.

Omar El Hilali has committed more fouls than any other Espanyol player in LaLiga this season, averaging 2.38 per 90 minutes, one of the highest averages in the league.

The right back has been giving away a lot more fouls than last season, when he averaged just 1.40 per 90 minutes.

He's also no stranger to picking up cards.

He picked up 10 yellow cards in 2024/25 and another nine in 2025/26. 

This season, he's already had two yellow cards and a red card in LaLiga, as well as another booking in the Copa del Rey last Tuesday.

El Hilali is likely to come up directly against Tajon Buchanan, who's been fouled more than any other Villarreal player in LaLiga.

Buchanan has been fouled 17 times in eight games, averaging 3.29 per 90 minutes, so there's a good chance El Hilali picks up a card here.

Neto Moura has picked up more yellow cards than any other Mirassol player in the Brazilian league this season, with eight in 20 games.

He's averaging just over one foul per 90 minutes, and he's been picking up cards more often recently, with four in his last seven games.

Corinthians have three of the five most fouled players in the Brazilian league, and two of them could come up against Neto Moura in midfield.

Rodrigo Garro and Breno Bidon are all averaging more than three fouls won per 90 minutes.

Neto Moura was actually booked the last time he faced Corinthians, and it was for a foul on Breno Bidon.

The referee will be the same one who took charge of the last game between these two teams, which isn't great news for Neto Moura.

Matheus Candançan was pretty strict that day, with 32 fouls and seven yellow cards, including one to the Mirassol midfielder.

Man City have won six of their eight home matches across all competitions this season, and their recent games have been exciting to watch.

Over 3.5 goals has landed in five successive matches at the Etihad Stadium, with both teams finding the back of the net in all of those. Ipswich and Sunderland combined for a total of five goals in Manchester, while AEK Athens also scored against City in the Champions League. 

The Seagulls found plenty of success in Manchester midweek, recording 17 shots of which six hit the target. They were unfortunate to lose out on penalties in the end, but will be confident of causing problems again in the final third.

Brighton have made a strong start to the Premier League season, boasting the record of five wins, one draw and two losses from their eight games so far, putting them just five points behind both Arsenal and Man City.

Despite that, the Seagulls have one of the worst disciplinary records in the division, and they have landed this selection in seven of their eight league matches. That includes picking up two yellow cards against Liverpool last weekend, despite having 65% possession at Anfield, and four yellows against Arsenal back in September. 

Brighton landed this selection midweek as well, as Michael Svobody, Lewis Dunk and Mats Wieffer were all booked.

Chema Andres committed two fouls against Liverpool last weekend before being replaced after 54 minutes. The Spaniard missed out midweek, but his injury was confirmed to only be minor, so there is confidence around the Brighton camp that he will return this weekend.

Andres has adapted seamlessly to life under Fabian Hurzeler, and Brighton have won four of the five matches he has started. In that time, Andres has picked up two bookings, and he has recorded multiple infringements in all five. 

He is averaging 2.57 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which shows how he likes to get stuck into duels, and he usually has plenty of work to do in Brighton’s midfield.

Andres will be primarily up against Rayan Cherki in midfield, but Jeremy Doku should also occupy a similar zone of the field as Andres. Those two are likely to find duels in transition, or when the Belgian international cuts inside. 

Doku was fouled four times against Aston Villa last weekend, taking his average to 3.8 fouls drawn per 90 this season.

The winger has established himself as one of the toughest players in the Premier League to contain in one-on-one scenarios, and he is always looking to be positive. Given that Brighton are averaging 12.4 fouls per game in the league this season, it looks like a favourable matchup to back this selection.

Yasin Ayari went closest to scoring for Brighton at Anfield last weekend, and the Swedish international was guilty of missing a huge chance in the first-half to give his side the lead. Ayari almost atoned for his mistake soon after, but was denied by the post.

He finished the game with three shots meaning he has landed this selection in all seven Premier League starts this season. 

Ayari started against Man City midweek in a defensive midfield position, but he still landed this selection with ease, finishing the match with four shots. He is likely to return to a more advanced role this weekend, making him a target for shots once again.

The Brazilian striker finds himself in a rich vein of form at the moment, and he comes into this clash full of confidence. Evanilson has scored in each of his last three successive league matches, which were against Chelsea, Sunderland and Man United. He accrued 13 shots across those games, which shows just how easily Bournemouth have been able to carve out chances, and Evanilson is usually the target going forward. 

Leeds are conceding an average of 15.0 shots per game when playing away this season, with exactly a third of those hitting the target. James Trafford has been kept busy when Leeds play away, and he will have to be wary of the threat posed by Evanilson this weekend.

Bournemouth have been in excellent form going forward, scoring 14 goals in their last five matches alone. That includes three successive 3-0 victories against Aston Villa, AC Milan and Man United. Marco Rose’s men seem to be playing with much more confidence recently, and their front line is firing. They have cleared this line on their own in four of their last five games. 

Leeds haven’t quite been as expansive, but this selection landed in both league meetings last season. It finished 2-2 at the Vitality Stadium, and 2-2 in the reverse fixture at Elland Road. Once again, another even encounter is expected at the weekend.

The Cherries have one of the worst disciplinary records in the league, having already picked up 22 yellow cards. Only Brentford have been carded more times than Bournemouth this campaign. 

Despite their positive form in recent weeks, cards have remained a target. In fact, at least five cards have been shown in each of their last five matches across all competitions.

Referee Tony Harrington was kept busy midweek, as he dished out a total of six yellow cards, with three to either side. There were 28 fouls given midweek, and this selection landed in the first half alone. That has been a theme for Bournemouth so far - their games can be quite chaotic, with plenty of space to exploit in midfield areas.

Bournemouth’s defensive players have accounted for most of those bookings, but their forwards have been intense in their press. Evanilson is averaging 1.72 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, while Justin Kluivert is at 2.54 fouls per 90. Those two should both find duels against James Justin this weekend, who has been playing at centre back recently.

Justin has been adept at drawing contact this season, landing this selection in seven of his eight starts. His average of 1.27 fouls drawn per 90 in the league is one of the highest figures in the Leeds squad, and he has an excellent matchup to increase those figures at the Vitality Stadium.

Ethan Ampadu has been in the wars recently, and he has been carded in each of his last three successive league starts. In that time, he has racked up a total of ten infringements. The Welshman likes to be aggressive in the heart of midfield, and he will have the tough task of trying to contain those in-form Bournemouth attackers. 

Evanilson is averaging 1.98 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season, while Marcus Tavernier is not too far behind with 1.35 fouls drawn per 90. Both of those should find duels against Ampadu in midfield this weekend, which bodes well for this selection.

Bournemouth have found their feet after a tough start to the Premier League season, and they come into this match having won each of their last five matches across all competitions. They are not short of talent in the final third, and Ryan Christie perhaps goes under the radar as a player who poses a threat going forward. 

The Scottish international is averaging 3.15 shots per 90 across all competitions this campaign, which is one of the highest figures in the Bournemouth squad. Even last season, he had an average of 2.12 shots per 90 across all competitions, rising to 3.09 when playing at the Vitality Stadium.

Brandon Thomas-Asante is averaging 2.2 shots per 90 across all competitions this season, making him one of Coventry’s main threats in the final third.

The winger likes to be direct when he receives possession, looking to move inside rather than staying out wide. Frank Lampard has used Thomas-Asante on the left wing, right wing and through the centre, which highlights his versatility and importance in forward areas. 

Sunderland are conceding an average of 12.5 shots per game across all competitions this season, rising steeply to 14.3 when playing away. The Black Cats haven’t been too convincing on their travels this campaign, so Thomas-Asante should find chances here.

Fabian Hurzeler opted for rotation midweek, so Charalampos Kostoulas was completely left out of the squad. The Greek international has had a week to rest and prepare for this fixture, and he registered four shots against Liverpool last weekend.

One of those efforts hit the target, meaning Kostoulas has landed this selection against Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Man United this season. He thrives in tougher matchups. 

Brighton found plenty of success going forward against Man City midweek, And Georginio Rutter recorded five shots, of which four hit the target. Kostoulas will likely lead the line this weekend, and based on those numbers from Rutter, he has every reason to be looking forward to this game.

Sandro Tonali accounted for two of Tottenham’s 15 shots against Chelsea last weekend, taking his average to 1.7 shots per 90 across all competitions this season.

This upcoming clash looks like an excellent chance for him to improve those figures, as Palace have been one of the worst defensive units in the Premier League so far. They are conceding an average of 16.9 shots per game in the league, and no side has conceded more goals than them this term. 

There should be plenty of opportunities for Tonali to get forward, and he isn’t shy to try his luck from distance. Both efforts against Chelsea last weekend came from outside the box.

Nicolas Jackson put in his best performance in a Villa shirt so far against Man City last week, scoring twice from three shots to secure the three points for Unai Emery’s side.

I’m not surprised that Jackson is improving under Emery, the Villa boss has a track record of improving the movement and finishing of strikers with a good example being the development of Ollie Watkins under Emery.

Jackson has had more shots on target than any other Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season (7 - 1.14 per 90). 

He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, managing multiple efforts on target in three of these games.

I’m not convinced at all by the direction that this Fulham side have taken under Arbeloa. They’re conceding 14.00 shots per game, and could struggle to handle the threat of Jackson who will be full of confidence following his brace last week.

Nicolas Jackson put in his best performance in a Villa shirt so far against Man City last week, scoring twice from three shots to secure the three points for Unai Emery’s side.

I’m not surprised that Jackson is improving under Emery, the Villa boss has a track record of improving the movement and finishing of strikers with a good example being the development of Ollie Watkins under Emery.

Jackson has had more shots on target than any other Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season (7 - 1.14 per 90). 

He’s had a shot on target in each of his last four Premier League starts, managing multiple efforts on target in three of these games.

I’m not convinced at all by the direction that this Fulham side have taken under Arbeloa. They’re conceding 14.00 shots per game, and could struggle to handle the threat of Jackson who will be full of confidence following his brace last week.

Josh King is quite clearly Fulham’s most influential player, and has added end product to his game this season - taking more shots (21) and having more shots on target (10) than any other Fulham player.

King has had 2+ shots in seven of his eight Premier League appearances this term, taking 3+ shots in five of these games - including each of his last two. 

King has found the target in six of his eight Premier League appearances this season, and will be able to cause Villa issues with his clever movement. His teammates trust him more too, with King averaging 53.4 touches per 90 compared to 41.5 touches per 90 in the Premier League last season.

Unai Emery has assembled one of the most aggressive and hard working midfield duos with Kamara and Joao Gomes being the perfect players for his system.

Both have got through a lot of defensive work so far this season, but Kamara has been the standout for fouls - committing more fouls than any other Villa player across his eight appearances (18 - 2.27 per 90).

Kamara is also averaging 10.3 defensive contributions per 90 and contesting 12.48 duels per 90, so he’s constantly in battles where he can give away fouls. He’s committed a foul in seven of his eight Premier League appearances, committing multiple fouls in five of these games.

I’m interested in his battle with Josh King here. King is Fulham’s best player and will require quite a bit of attention from Villa’s midfield duo. Only one Fulham player has won more fouls than King in the Premier League this season (12 - 1.63 per 90).

I think this could be a case of one manager really outclassing the other.

Unai Emery saw his side start the season really slowly (again), but they’ve settled into a really nice rhythm and I wouldn’t be put off by their defeat to Bournemouth in the EFL Cup during the week.

Villa rotated quite a bit, and Bournemouth still needed a man of the match performance from Di Gregorio to keep them out.

Fulham have not impressed me at all this season, six of the eight points they’ve earned have come from wins against Coventry and Hull - both 1-0 victories where Fulham looked far from comfortable.

They’ve only managed to win one of their four away assignments in the Premier League, notably losing to both Sunderland and Ipswich on the road. 

We need Villa to score twice here, which is something they’ve managed in seven of their last ten matches. 

The Potters have impressed recently and rank second in the five-game form table in the Championship. Only Middlesbrough have taken more points than Stoke in that period.

In-fact, ‘Boro are also the only side to take three points from The Bet 365 stadium this season, in a 3-2 win. Aside from that, Stoke have won three and drawn one.

They also dismantled Charlton here in a 4-0 win, creating 1.84 xG and racking up eight shots on target.

Preston are in dire form and average 1.74 xGA, one of the worst defences in the league.

They’ve won just one game all season and are winless on the road, losing five of six and conceding 15 times.

Galbraith has emerged as a key creative force for Stoke and currently leads the goal scoring charts for them and also chipped in with three assists, getting back towards the kind of output we saw during his time at Leyton Orient.

He’s also been good at winning fouls. Galbraith has drawn an average of 1.17 fouls per 90 minutes and his 14 fouls drawn is the second highest in the squad.

In midfield, he’ll come up against Leo Leroy, who has averaged 1.40 fouls per 90 minutes and has already been carded four times.

Preston have averaged 12 fouls per match.

The Preston centre-half has an impressive record when it comes to winning fouls. His 12 drawn this season is the second-highest in the PNE squad and he’s averaged 1.20 fouls drawn per 90 minutes.

He was fouled twice against West Brom last week and has been fouled at least once in eight out of ten matches this season.

The predicted front three for Stoke of McGlynn, Devenny and Cisse average 2.89 fouls per 90 combined.

Stoke also average 12 fouls per match and I’m expecting this to be a physical affair with both sides playing plenty of direct football.

Soumare’s 15 fouls sits him second in the rankings for Stoke, behind Ethan Galbraith who he partners with in midfield.

Soumare has averaged 1.50 fouls per 90 minutes. He’s fouled in eight of his 11 Championship starts and in six of his last seven appearances. He committed two fouls last week and was booked. 

The aforementioned Leo Leroy, although a heavy tackler himself, he actually draws a few fouls and has been impeded an average of 1.20 times per 90 minutes this season.

Alfie Devine draws 0.66 per 90 too and is a real creative outlet in a poor side, he’ll need closely marshalled.

Saturday night’s Milan derby at the San Siro has all the makings of an entertaining encounter, and I’m backing both teams to score.

There has been an uptick in goals across Serie A this season, and these two heavyweights have been big contributors.

Indeed, both teams have scored in six of AC Milan’s opening nine league games of the season, with Inter posting an identical record. 

Even more encouraging is the fact that AC Milan come into this clash off the back of a 4-2 home defeat to Bologna on Wednesday night, while they have beaten Atalanta 3-2 in recent weeks and drew 2-2 away at Lazio last month.

As for Inter, they have also been involved in some high-scoring contests this season, particularly against Serie A’s big hitters, defeating Napoli 3-2 and drawing 2-2 with Roma.

Even in Europe, Christian Chivu’s side have found the net in Champions League defeats to Real Madrid and Club Brugge this season, strengthening the case for each team to oblige.

I think a minimum of nine match corners should be within range during this San Siro showdown.

Of the two rivals, Inter Milan have been the stronger corner performers this season, averaging 5.89 per 90 in Serie A.

That can be attributed to the fact that the Nerazzurri’s matches are generating an average of 9.00 corners per game, which is exactly what we’re looking for here.

Admittedly, AC Milan have been nowhere near as reliable on the corner front, but their 2-0 win at Udinese last weekend produced exactly 9 corners, with the hosts winning 5 and the Rossoneri 4, and I think we could see a similar total here. 

Adding weight to this selection is the fact that Milan’s home defeat to Benfica in the Europa League last month saw both teams combine for 11 corners, while there were 10 flag kicks in their 3-0 loss away at Bournemouth last week.

As one of Milan’s main threats, Pulisic has been a regular target for opposing players this season. 

Pulisic has drawn an average of 0.93 fouls per game in Serie A this term, earning his team a free-kick during Wednesday night’s 4-2 defeat to Bologna after coming off the bench for the final half-hour.

That means he has now drawn 4 fouls across his last five Serie A appearances, and there’s plenty of scope for that trend to continue in a fixture where sparks are almost certain to fly.

The AC Milan ace has been deployed in the number 10 role in recent outings, which should bring him into close contact with Hakan Calhanoglu.

The Inter midfielder has averaged 1.08 fouls per 90 in Serie A this season and has been penalised in each of his last two appearances, while he has overstepped the mark 3 times across his three Champions League outings for the Nerazzurri this term.

Nicolo Barella should be in the thick of a fiery midfield battle in Saturday night’s Milan derby, making the Inter ace worth backing to commit at least one foul.

The Italian international has been catching the attention of referees this season, averaging 0.81 fouls per game in Serie A, and a match of this magnitude should bring his combative side to the fore.

Upon closer inspection, it can be seen that Barella has committed 1 foul in each of his last three league outings, including against Venezia on Wednesday night despite featuring only in the second half.

Notably, he was also penalised once during Inter’s Champions League win over Shakhtar Donetsk last midweek.

He is likely to find himself operating in similar areas to Ardon Jashari, who was fouled once against Bologna on Wednesday night and has also been brought down in two of his three Europa League appearances for AC Milan this season.

Barella is also likely to cross paths with Luka Modric, who has drawn 0.80 fouls per game in the Italian top flight this term.

Cole Palmer loves playing against Man Utd. 

Many of you will remember his hat trick against Man Utd at Stamford Bridge a few years ago during the Pochettino era, and he’s started the season with some decent goal contribution numbers.

Palmer reminds me a lot of Salah in the sense that he can still come away with a goal or an assist even if he isn’t playing that well. He’s been nowhere near his best this season, but has still registered five goal contributions across his eight starts in the Premier League.

It was similar last season, with Palmer battling with injuries and patches of poor form throughout the campaign - but still ended the season with 11 goal contributions across his 24 Premier League starts.

Furthermore, United look vulnerable at the moment. They conceded four against Como last week, and three against Bournemouth over the weekend. Chelsea may have had real defensive issues across Alonso’s opening eight games in the division, but only Brighton and Man City have outscored them so far.

Bruno Fernandes will come back into the side here for this game after being dropped by Carrick for Man Utd’s defeat to Bournemouth over the weekend.

Man Utd are far from a complete side even with Fernandes involved, but it’s clear that without him they are completely hopeless. 

They lacked creativity in that 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth over the weekend, and regardless of what you think of Fernandes’ comments after the Como game - he’s still a world class player that can make something out of nothing.

He likes playing against Chelsea too, assisting Cunha’s winner at Stamford Bridge last season as well as scoring against the Blues at Old Trafford. He’s registered four goal contributions across his seven starts so far, and is clearly Man Utd’s biggest threat here. 

Moises Caicedo was incredibly fortunate to avoid a yellow card against Tottenham last week. 

If you just look at the numbers, it looks like he just made a solitary foul but he was really reckless on a number of occasions with the referee letting him off via playing advantage.

The midfield battle here is really interesting to me. Fernandes should come back into the side, giving Caicedo one decent opponent, but he’ll also have Tielemans (2.28 fouls won per 90) to contend with as well as one of Baleba, Santos or Mainoo. 

Caicedo is actually yet to pick up a yellow card in the Premier League this season, but has committed five fouls (1.70 per 90) and has a favourable matchup here to collect his first caution of the season.

No Chelsea player collected more yellow cards than Moises Caicedo in the Premier League last season (11), and that game against Tottenham last week showed that Chelsea still do have some underlying discipline issues.

Chelsea have conceded more goals from set pieces than any other side in the Premier League so far this season, despite spending a significant amount of money on a new set piece coach over the summer.

I’m not surprised that Chelsea are struggling from these situations. They’re opting for zonal marking from corners in particular, and there has long been an issue with physicality and height in this Chelsea side - making them the perfect side for opposition teams to target from set pieces.

There aren’t many centre backs better than Harry Maguire when it comes to offering a threat from set pieces. He’s had nine shots in the Premier League this season (1.13 per 90) - ranking Maguire in the 93rd percentile when compared to other centre backs in the Premier League for shots.

I’d be looking at Maguire for a shot (1.83), and a shot on target (4.5) given his promising underlying numbers this season and Chelsea’s general weakness from set pieces. 

We need him to find the target here, which is a bit more of a punt than a single shot (1.83), but given Chelsea’s obvious weakness from set piece situations - I can see Maguire finding the target at least once.

The physical battle between McBurnie and Diop really interests me here. Diop has been consistent for committing fouls this season, he’s committed at least one in five of his eight appearances for Ipswich in the league, averaging 0.88 committed per 90.

However, it is McBurnie’s knack for winning fouls that makes this an appealing selection for me. 

McBurnie is averaging 1.91 fouls won per 90 in the league, drawing at least one in every game this season, and he is only priced at 1.25 to win one. 

Both his, and Hull’s, playstyle suits fouls perfectly. Hull’s compact 5-4-1 formation results in McBurnie using his physical presence to hold-up long balls and bring his teammates into play with his back to the centre-half. Hull average 22.0 accurate long balls per game, which ranks 8th in the league, so emphasises their use of this as an outball. 

Diop is an equally physical player, we saw last week where he was lucky not to be sent off for a reckless tackle, whilst he also committed a foul against Liam Delap, who is an equally physical striker to McBurnie. Although the two teams play in different ways, I would expect this battle to end in a similar way, with Diop committing fouls.

I think there will be fouls in the Hull midfield today, given the quality of Julio Enciso in the Ipswich attack. Enciso has drawn the most fouls across the Ipswich squad this season with 13, averaging 1.80 per 90.

That draws my attention to Regan Slater, who has started every game for Hull this season, and I think his defensive nature will lead to him committing fouls here, especially considering he averages 0.80 fouls committed per 90.

Slater has been playing as a box-to-box midfielder, however has shown his importance for them defensively. He is averaging 6.77 defensive contributions, as well as 1.99 tackles per 90 for Hull this season. He also loves a duel, averaging 7.7 per 90, winning 4.63 of these. 

However, he is prone to be dribbled past, averaging 1.19 per 90, which does interest me in his battle with Enciso, who averages 2.22 successful dribbles per 90, from 5.27 attempts. Given his averages, it’s definitely a match-up I’d be keeping an eye on, particularly in an Ipswich transition.

Hull have received the joint-most yellow cards this season (22) and have received at least two cards in seven of their eight Premier League games.

Ipswich’s games have been just as card heavy, however mainly for their opposition. Each of their eight opponents in the league have received 2+ cards, with 3+ landing in seven of those. 

Hull also received 2+ cards in both meetings with Ipswich in the Championship last season and I think this occasion will be a physical, competitive encounter, as both sides will be viewing this as a must-win game.

Given their records, and previous meetings, I’d be very surprised if this game didn’t follow suit.

Belloumi has been a shot machine this season, currently ranking in the top 10 of Premier League players for  shots taken.

It’s no surprise that his stats are very strong, averaging 3.30 shots per 90, and landing 2+ in seven of his eight appearances. He is a threat from both inside and outside the box too, with 10 of his shots coming from inside, and 12 coming from outside, which gives him plenty of opportunities to have a go at goal.

Hull’s playstyle allows him to be one of their main attacking focal points. Their heavily defensive formation consisting of five defenders, with two defensive-minded central midfielders, means they heavily rely on their wingers to create their opportunities on goal. Resulting in Belloumi’s impressive return of three goals and two assists in eight appearances.

He has been quieter in Hull’s last two games, not registering a shot on target, however still recorded 3+ shots in both games. Hull will be seeing this as a good opportunity to get back to winning ways, so I think Belloumi will be heavily involved.

I can’t see this one going to the scorecards and both fighter’s durability and recent performances make the case. 

Osbourne is explosive and hits hard early, finishing three of his five UFC wins. He’s also one-dimensional and fades as fights go on, which leaves him open to being stopped late if he can’t get the job done early.

Durden has been finished in 8 of his 11 defeats (6 submissions, 2 KO/TKOs), so if Osbourne lands cleanly in the first round, there’s every chance it ends there.

If Durden survives the early storm, his high pace and grappling come into play. 

He averages 3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes at 48% accuracy, exactly the pressure Osbourne has struggled with, and a tiring Osbourne could easily give up a submission from round two onwards.

Lebosnoyani edged unbeaten prospect Seokhyeon Ko on all three cards last time out, and the grappling numbers say a lot about this fight. He stuffed all four of Ko’s takedown attempts and landed three of his own.

He has clean striking and has a beautiful highlight-reel knockout on his record. 

Hasanov is an undefeated wrestler from Azerbaijan (6-0-0). He won his UFC debut landing 17 takedowns and banking 11 minutes of control with just 21 significant strikes. 

Lebosnoyani has shown he can defend the takedown, and answer with his own, which could test the cardio of Hasanov who looked shattered after his UFC debut win. 

It’s likely going to be a grueling fight but I think Lebosnoyani will start to pull away in the latter rounds. 

Smith is 13-0 with ten knockouts and is one of the most explosive athletes in the UFC. 

He’s got some brutal ground and pound where he’s finished fights in seconds exploding with punches once gaining top position. His takedowns are very accurate with 12 of 14 takedown attempts landing between the Contender Series and the UFC.

Brown has lost his last two fights, and although he’s more experienced he struggles against fighters who close the distance and look to work on the inside. 

Brown’s best chance is to land a clean shot when Smith looks to explode but if Smith gets hold of him the strength gap will likely show. 

I see Smith closing the distance, slamming Brown to the canvas and then providing a violent beating to finish the fight.

Moicano takes on another younger, rising talent in the UFC for the second straight fight, having subbed prospect Chris Duncan in his last fight. He’s won three of his last five fights, beating Jalin Turner, Benoit Saint Denis, and Chris Duncan, but losing to Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush.

Moicano’s grappling is the biggest difference here, he produces multiple takedown attempts and works for the back position, where he’s won all seven of his UFC submissions by rear-naked choke. Nolan has a habit of giving up his back after being taken down, which is where the UFC veteran will be looking to finish the fight.

Nolan arrives on a five-fight win streak. He’s younger, and packs a lot of power in his strikes, especially his punches and he’s got a wonderful kicking game. The risk for Moicano is getting caught early. 

However, I think Moicano will use all of this fighting IQ and experience to drag Nolan into a grappling match and test him over the full five rounds. 

Sunderland’s recent form has been really poor, and they have failed to score in any of their last three Premier League matches, but the Black Cats were handed a confidence booster midweek.

They beat Brentford 3-2 in the EFL Cup, finally looking more succinct in the final third. The return of Brian Brobbey to first team action is another boost, so Regis Le Bris will be confident his men can at least cause a threat in the final third this weekend. 

Coventry have one of the worst defensive records in the division, having only kept one clean sheet in their eight Premier League matches so far. They were beaten 1-0 by Fulham last weekend, and 3-1 by Spurs before that.

Frank Lampard’s men conceded at least four corners in both of those matches, and their opponents are averaging 5.0 corners per game across all competitions this campaign.

They haven’t been particularly effective at limiting chances for their opponents, and Sunderland will be desperate for three points here, which bodes well for this selection. 

Despite their struggles, the Black Cats are averaging 4.25 corners per game this season, and they have landed this selection in five out of eight Premier League matches overall.

They landed exactly three corners in each of their misses, which shows how they have consistently been able to clear or get close to this line.

Sunderland have been one of the more effective sides at drawing infringements this season, averaging 14.1 fouls drawn per Premier League game. Enzo Le Fee has been a key contributor to that record, and he is averaging 2.1 fouls drawn per 90 - the advanced midfielder should find duels directly against Caleb Yirenkyi in midfield. 

The Coventry man is averaging 3.1 fouls per 90 since completing his move to England, and he has landed this selection in five of his eight starts overall. Yirenki likes to be aggressive in midfield and close opponents down quickly, and this matchup against Sunderland is a favourable one for him to increase his foul numbers further.

Trai Hume committed two fouls against Leeds last weekend, and he looks set to match up against Brandon Thomas-Asante here. It’s another tough matchup for the Sunderland fullback, against a tricky and direct winter. Thomas-Asante likes to isolate defenders and look to beat them one-on-one, meaning he can be a difficult player to contain. 

The winger is averaging 3.7 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, which is comfortably the highest figure in the Coventry squad. He has landed this selection in all seven of his starts, including 13 fouls drawn in his last four appearances alone.

If Sunderland are to put an end to their winless streak of six Premier League matches, Brian Brobbey will have to play a key role.

The Dutchman returned to Sunderland’s starting eleven against Leeds last weekend, and he managed two shots which both hit the target. Prior to that, Brobbey scored a hat-trick at the Etihad Stadium against Man City, as his side were beaten 5-3. 

Coventry have conceded an average of 16.3 shots per game this season, with 5.0 hitting the target. They have struggled to limit chances for their opponents, and Brobbey should be filled with confidence after seeing those figures.

Schade has been Brentford’s most prolific forward this season, scoring three goals in the league. I think his pace and directness could cause Forest some issues today, particularly when Munoz is caught pushing higher up the pitch. 

Schade is averaging 1.04 shots on target from 2.67 shots per 90 across his eight games this season, hitting the target in five of those games. 

He is a massive threat in the box and thrives when played in behind through the half space between full-back and centre-back. This is where I feel he could exploit Forest. With Munoz playing more as a winger in Glasner’s system, it results in Jair Cunha having to cover in that right-back space, stretching the forest back three. 

This should give him plenty of space to attack in between Cunha and Milenkovic, allowing him to operate inside the Forest box, where he is so dangerous.

Of his 18 shots taken this season, 16 of these have come from inside the box. What’s more is that he averages 5.19 touches in the opposition box per 90, so given the space that should be available, I think he’ll enjoy plenty of opportunities.

I mentioned this matchup earlier, but I think Cunha will have his work cut out with Schade this afternoon.

Cunha often drifts into more of a right-back position for Forest, especially when in transition, to cover for Munoz playing as more of a winger in attack and I think Brentford will look to exploit this today.

Not only is Schade their best attacking threat so Cunha will naturally be wanting to stay tighter to him, he also loves attacking the half space between the right-back and right centre-back, and finds most of his attacking joy when played in behind in that space.

That said, Cunha’s stats are also strong for fouls committed this season, averaging 1.18 per 90, as well as committing at least one in four of his six league appearances for Forest.

In comparison to Schade who wins 1.48 fouls per 90, I think this is a battle to keep an eye on this afternoon.

Munoz is a proven threat in the attacking third and we know how key he is to Oliver Glasner’s attack, so to get this price on a single shot feels big.

He’s had at least one shot in six of his seven league appearances this year (for both Forest and Palace) and is averaging 1.36 shots per 90. This is no fluke either, in his last two seasons under Glasner at Palace, he averaged 1.01 and 1.03 shots per 90 respectively. 

Both Brentford and Forest play with attacking full-backs, especially down Munoz’s side, with Lewis-Potter occupying similar positions to Munoz as more of a winger in attack.

Only four teams in the league have allowed their opponents more touches in their box than Brentford this season, and Munoz averages 3.36 touches in the opposition box himself, so could see himself with plenty of opportunities here.

If their Super Cup clash was anything to go by, this should be a very competitive game.

That meeting ended in a 2-1 Bayern win, landing this bet, and both teams' stats for it to land again look particularly strong.

It’s no secret that Bayern are a powerhouse going forward, scoring the most goals in the Bundesliga this season (25) from the highest xG in the league (23.81). 

However, it’s their leaky defence that interests me.

They’ve seen BTTS land in five of their seven league games, stretching to 10 games (all comps), including their two DFB-Pokal ties against teams from the second division. 

They’ve also seen over 2.5 goals in six of their seven league games this season, with it landing in all but one game (all comps).

Dortmund’s games have been high-scoring too, with seven of their games (all comps) seeing over 2.5 goals, whilst their goalscoring record also looks very sustainable against their xG, scoring 12 goals from an xG of 11.52. 

Their defence has been better than Bayern’s, only allowing their opponents to score in two games this season, but Bayern are a different beast, especially at home, and are priced at just 1.03 to score.

Not much needs to be said here, after winning the Ballon d’Or on Monday, Kane will be wanting to show exactly why he’s the best player in the world, and I think he will do just that.

He’s hit the target at least once in 11 of his 12 appearances for Bayern this season and averages 1.68 shots on target per 90. 

He gives himself plenty of opportunities to test the keeper too, averaging 5.21 shots per 90, with those being spread both inside and outside the box (18 shots inside, 13 shots outside). 

He’s on penalties as always as well, there’ll be plenty of opportunities for him to hit the target tonight.

With injuries to both Karetsas and Konstantelias, Guirassy will be leading Dortmund’s line tonight, which should give him ample opportunity to test the Bayern keeper.

He has recorded the most shots on target of any Dortmund player this season with 10, averaging 1.62 shots on target from 3.39 shots per 90.

He is a real threat aerially too, with 1.18 of his average shots per 90 coming from headers.

Dortmund average 5.0 accurate crosses per game, recording 19 crosses in their Super Cup clash, so there will likely be chances in the air for him tonight too.

I mentioned Bayern’s defensive record earlier, conceding in 10 of their 13 games (all comps), and I think their high defensive line could give Guirassy some freedom in behind tonight, especially as a striker who enjoys playing on the shoulder of the last defender.

Upamecano has committed the most fouls for Bayern this season, whilst his opponent, Guirassy, has won the most fouls across the Dortmund squad. 

Upamecano averages 1.54 fouls committed per 90, landing this line in six of his last seven games.

He also finds himself in plenty of duels each game, averaging 10.92 per 90, winning 6.62 of those.

What interests me here is Bayern’s high defensive line, causing Upamecano’s average position to be sitting on the halfway line, which I think could allow Guirassy some freedom today.

As mentioned, Guirassy enjoys playing on the shoulder of the last defender, which I think could cause Upamecano some problems here, especially if Bayern are caught in possession.

He is being brought down an average of 1.62 times per 90, which has resulted in him being priced at 1.071 to be fouled.

I think Upamecano’s stats are far too strong for this price, especially when paired against Guirassy.

Last but not least is a featherweight bout involving former Naoya Inoue opponent David Alan Picasso, of Mexico, and Carl Jammes Martin, who hails from the Philippines.

Following his defeat to Inoue last December, Picasso has returned to featherweight and scored a round-two knockout win over Maicol Rincon in his lone outing of the 2026 calendar. Yet, at the world level, Picasso has not shown that he is a genuine puncher, with career-best wins over Azat Hovannisyan and Kyonosuke Kameda each coming on points.

Those close to Carl Jammes Martin have always championed him as a threat, but he also has limited featherweight experience and is making an almighty jump up in levels here, with Picasso the sensible pick of the two for any trebles or accumulators.

A towering, imposing figure, Rafael Espinoza could well be the best featherweight on the planet at the moment, but his doubters are right to criticise his recent run of opponents, which haven’t really been up to scratch or able to test him

Here, Espinoza takes on a late-notice opponent in Nicaragua’s Ricardo Blandon, who has fought as low as super-flyweight, as recently as 2022, and has no real place in a featherweight world title challenge, other than because the fact that he has the guts to step in at the last minute.

Expect Espinoza to make easy work of Blandon, despite the fact that the latter has been halted only once in six defeats, with ‘El Divino’ hopefully moving on to bigger and better challengers in the coming months.

In a confusing clash, we do not yet know if Jaime Munguia’s WBA super-middleweight world title will be on the line against what is an unsanctioned challenger in Russia’s Nikita Zon, after Munguia avoided a scrap with his mandated dance partner, Bektemir Melikuziev.

Whilst Zon’s official record will read officially as an undefeated one, he has twice lost on IBA-Pro cards (which are more-or-less professional), including a final-round knockout loss to Cuban standout Arlen Lopez, which was up at cruiserweight.

Meanwhile, whilst Munguia has 35 KOs to his name in 46 wins, in his two outings since being knocked out himself by Bruno Surace, we have seen him adopt a less aggressive approach.

As a result, I fancy Zon to take Munguia the distance here, with Munguia being more cautious than the bookmakers expected and winning on the cards, priced at 4.00