Portugal v Spain

Portugal take on Spain in the 2025 Nations League final, where they’ll be hoping to secure their first piece of international silverware since lifting the European Championship in 2016. They beat Germany 2-1 in the semi-finals to reach the final, thanks to goals from Chico Conceicao and Cristiano Ronaldo.

Spain are the holders of this competition, having beaten Croatia to the trophy in the 2023 Nations League final. Spain are favourites to retain their title, an achievement that would mean lifting a trophy in each of the last three years for Luis de la Fuente’s side.

⭐ Portugal v Spain Best Bet

This selection has landed in seven of Spain’s nine games in the Nations League this season, including in both of their games against the Netherlands in the quarter-final and against France in the semi-final. 

Spain’s underlying attacking numbers are unmatched across the Nations League, with Luis de la Fuente’s side scoring 2.6 goals per game and posting the highest xG of any side in the competition (20.7). They also top the Nations League rankings for shots on target per game (7.3) and penalties awarded (5). 

Spain put five goals past France last time out, and they’ll fancy their chances of troubling Portugal’s backline, something that Germany failed to really take advantage of in their semi-final clash against Roberto Martinez’s side.

Yamal and Williams in particular can cause Portugal real problems, especially down Williams’ side - Joao Neves lined up as a makeshift right back for Portugal against Germany so this could be an area that Spain look to exploit.

👕 Portugal v Spain Predicted XI

🔎 Portugal v Spain Players to Watch

⚪ Lamine Yamal

Yamal scored twice in a man of the match performance against France in the semi-final, delivering once again on the big stage for his nation, just as he had done during the European Championships. He created three chances in the game and looked dangerous every time he was able to get the ball and run at Theo Hernandez.

Yamal also stepped up to take Spain’s penalty in the game which is a scenario that could end up playing out here, Spain have won more penalties than any other side in the Nations League (5). Yamal registered 39 goal contributions across his 55 appearances for Barcelona during the 24/25 season and looks a good pick to score or assist here.

🔴 Cristiano Ronaldo

Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 137th goal in 220 caps for Portugal with his winning strike against Germany in the semi-final on Wednesday. His record at international level is remarkable and what has really stood out during this Nations League campaign is his shot volume.

He’s had 37 shots across his eight matches in the competition (5.16 per 90) which is unsurprisingly, more than any other player in the tournament. 14 of these efforts have found the target (1.95 per 90). Ronaldo had seven shots against Germany with three of these efforts finding the target. Spain are vulnerable at the back, as shown in the week when they shipped four goals to France, Ronaldo can fire off a couple of shots on goal here.

📂 Portugal v Spain Cheat Sheet

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Make sure to check out our Nations League Final Hit Rates Bet Builder, as well as our Germany v France Betting Predictions and Germany v France Bet Builder Tips. We have Gem Bets on site, as well as the latest Portugal v Spain Betting Stats.

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📊 Portugal v Spain Form and Tactics

Spain lined up in their familiar 4-3-3 shape against France in the semi-final of the Nations League. Luis de la Fuente has been brilliant at exposing the weaknesses of the opposition, and this was the case in the semi-final, with Spain looking to exploit France down Nico Williams’ flank, which was particularly effective as Pierre Kalulu was making his international debut and really struggled.

This was not the only tactical instruction given by Luis de la Fuente; he recognises that Spain don’t really have a traditional number nine, so Mikel Merino pushes up from midfield areas, especially when Spain are without the ball, to form the first layer of the press.

He’s experienced in this role, having played as a striker for Arsenal in the second half of the season. He can be watched for shots and shots on target following his strike against France. His role also creates the perfect environment for fouls, Merino had eight foul involvements against Germany (five fouls won, three fouls committed). 

Portugal impressed many with their second-half performance in Germany, they should have been a few goals behind at half-time if Germany had been more clinical with the chances they had. Roberto Martinez’s side ended up having to come from behind anyway, responding well to Wirtz’s headed opener to score two goals spaced apart by just five minutes.

An area of the pitch to keep an eye on for Portugal here will be the right-back position. João Neves lined up as an inverted fullback against Germany to relative success, but Nico Williams offers a far more challenging opponent, which may prompt Martinez to go with Nelson Semedo as a more defensive option in those 1v1 duels.

🏁 Portugal v Spain Ref Watch

• Referee: Sandro Schärer

• Stats are on per 90 basis and are taken from Schärer's 2024/2025 games (15 total)

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.