Germany v France

Germany and France may have missed out on the showpiece event with Portugal and Spain progressing through to the Nations League final, but both can still claim a bronze medal in this third-place playoff.

Germany took the lead against Portugal but were unable to stop Roberto Martinez’s side scoring twice in the space of five minutes to book their spot in the final. France were almost at the end of a really embarrassing scoreline, having fallen 4-0 behind to Spain. They managed to claw back some dignity with the game finishing 5-4 at the final whistle.

⭐ Germany v France Best Bet

Mbappe managed to get himself on the scoresheet against Spain in the semi-finals from the penalty spot; this ultimately wasn’t enough to help guide his side through to the final, but it did break his duck in the Nations League this season. Despite that being his first goal in the competition, Mbappe’s shot numbers have been high throughout.

Mbappe has taken 25 shots across his five appearances in the Nations League this campaign (5.45 per 90). 13 of these efforts have found the target (2.83 per 90), returning an xG of 3.03 which indicates that the Real Madrid striker should have a few more goals to his name at this point in the campaign, given the quality of the chances that have fallen his way.

Mbappe had three shots on target against Spain in the semi-final of the competition and will fancy his chances of disrupting a makeshift German backline, which is missing Antonio Rudiger and Nico Schlotterbeck, leaving it vulnerable to the attacking quality of France and Kylian Mbappe in particular. Germany conceded six shots on target and an xG of 2.92 against Portugal in the semi-final.

👕 Germany v France Predicted XI

🔎 Germany v France Players to Watch

⚪ Florian Wirtz

Wirtz found the target twice and scored in Germany’s 2-1 defeat to Portugal in the semi-final of the Nations League. He’s been an important player for Julian Nagelsmann’s side throughout the campaign, registering seven goal contributions in the competition (4 goals, 3 assists) while averaging 2.74 shots per 90 and 1.46 shots on target per 90.

He’s the most creative player in the final third for Germany in the absence of Jamal Musiala, and he should have a few sights of goal here against a French backline that conceded eight shots on target against Spain.

⚪ Joshua Kimmich

Kimmich’s role in this German side is really fascinating. He lines up as a wingback on paper but often comes inside to give Germany another player in central areas when they have the ball. He’s registered six assists in the Nations League this season, which is more than any other player in the competition.

His underlying numbers for this metric also stand out; Kimmich has created 24 chances across his nine appearances in the Nations League (2.89 per 90). He’s also on set pieces for Germany, which provides another angle for Kimmich to register an assist here, just as he did in the semi-finals of the Nations League. Kimmich has also registered two goals in the Nations League this term, so it's worth siding with the score or assist market here.

📂 Germany v France Cheat Sheet

We've been all over the Nations League action on Sunday, check out our Nations League Final Hit Rates Bet Builder, as well as our Portugal v Spain Betting Predictions and Portugal v Spain Bet Builder Tips.

We also have Gem Bets and Germany v France Betting Stats on site, plus more Nations League Predictions. There are plenty more Football Betting Predictions in store too, including MLS Acca Tips.

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📊 Germany v France Form and Tactics

Germany lined up in a 3-4-3 shape against Portugal. Julien Nagelsmann is a tactically astute manager, and he went with this structure to platform Joshua Kimmich, who lined up as a wingback on paper but really acted as an extra midfielder; he picked up an assist and created three chances in the game. 

Kimmich is worth watching for goal contributions and assists in particular when he plays for his national side, as Nagelsmann has shown he isn’t afraid to deploy him in advanced areas, Kimmich has registered eight goal contributions in the Nations League this season (2 goals, 6 assists) - more than any other player in the German squad. He’s also on set pieces for his country, which can offer another avenue for him to affect the game in the final third.

Elsewhere, Germany’s back three really struggled. The absence of Rudiger and Schlotterbeck was really felt with Jonathan Tah, Robin Koch and Waldemar Anton proving an ineffective trio against Portugal’s attacking substance. Roberto Martinez’s side had 17 shots in the game, with six of these finding the target, which resulted in an xG of 2.92. 

France had similar problems at the back with three of their usual starting back four unavailable under Didier Deschamps. This played out as you’d expect against a frontline which features the talent of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. France were unable to deal with their quality.

France did show their attacking potential in the second half, but this response only came when they had fallen four goals behind in the semi-final. The midfield looks a little unbalanced for France; both Rabiot and Kone did not look comfortable against the midfield dominance of Spain, and both received cautions in the game.

🏁 Germany v France Ref Watch

• Referee: Ivan Kružliak

• Stats are on per 90 basis and are taken from Kružliak's 2024/2025 games (10 total)

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