Genk v Club Brugge
Club Brugge start in fourth in the Champions’ Play-offs, boasting 30 points to their name. Royal Antwerp FC have 36, whilst Union SG and KRC Genk both have 38. Genk will miss Cuesta in defence with an injury but do have Munoz back. At Brugge, Danish international Skov Olsen is back to full fitness.
Racing Genk did not get the three points against Charleroi (2-2) on the final matchday of the regular season but will start the Playoffs as leaders thanks to goal difference. Genk’s level has dropped since the departure of top scorer Onuachu in the winter break.
In the last seven games, coach Vrancken’s team picked up only nine points and have not kept a single clean sheet. They lack a target man up front. Samatta is not reaching his former level and Arokdare is still injured. Young Oyen is only just out of injury and is a different type of striker. However, this is all relative considering how well they played to start the season.
Coach Wouter Vrancken’s team continue to play good football, but Genk’s inability to finish their chances has cost them points in recent weeks. Wingers Trésor and Painstsil continue to deliver regular assists and goals, at least. They will have to be kept in check by Brugge’s offensive backs Mata and Meijjer.
Club Brugge could only qualify for the Champions Play-offs on the final matchday and therefore have nothing to lose. Although they start 8 points behind in their catch-up race, confidence is high among the reigning champions.
Another reason fuelling Brugge’s title dream in recent days is the club’s experience in the Play-offs. They are the only club that made the Playoffs every year since the introduction in 2009. The ‘We got this’ mentality of the past play-offs returned systematically this week. With Genk away as the first hurdle.
Having taken 13 points from 18 under Rik De Mil, and just one goal against in those six games. Scoring against Club Brugge has again become a task, just like in last season’s play-offs. The blue-blacks only conceded two goals, one of them when the title was already confirmed. With the 7-0 against Eupen last weekend as an exponent, Club has rediscovered itself in recent weeks. The chances were already there, now the goals are following.
We expect Club Brugge to continue their form and Genk will have trouble coping with this team-in-form. A draw would not be a disaster for the leader, so we expect a rather wait-and-see attitude from the home side.
FC Porto v Boavista
After kicking off the month with a 1-0 win against Portimonense, Porto would win 2-1 at Benfica, 2-1 against Santa Clara and 2-0 at Paços de Ferreira before winning 2-1 at Famalicão in the first leg of the Taça de Portugal semi-finals.
They’ll be looking to make it a perfect April as they host crosstown rivals Boavista in the Derby da Invicta. Sérgio Conceição’s side are two points above Braga, four behind Benfica, and 90 minutes away from the Taça de Portugal Final, and whilst they may not be able to pick up their second straight league title, they can nevertheless pick up a top-two finish that would secure qualification to the UEFA Champions League group stage.
They are chasing Benfica and are being chased by Braga, and they can ill afford to drop points as they face off against Boavista before hosting Famalicão in the second leg, traveling to Arouca, hosting Casa Pia, traveling to Famalicão and hosting Vitória.
Porto have dropped points at home just twice this season – a 1-0 loss to Benfica on October 21 and a 2-1 loss to Gil Vicente on February 26 – and they’ll be not only looking to continue their impressive record at the Dragão, but their impressive record against the Axadrezados as well.
Since the start of 2015, Porto have won 16 and drawn once against Boavista, and with arguably the strongest depth of attacking options in the Primeira, they have more than enough firepower to exploit a Boavista side that has conceded 48 goals in 29 matches – only Marítimo (54) and Paços de Ferreira (51) have let in more.
Toni Martínez has scored a goal in each of his last two games and could be vital coming off the bench and putting Boavista’s defence under pressure, whilst the likes of Mehdi Taremi, Wenderson Galeno and Otávio could have a field day against a Boavista side that, despite sitting 11th, 15 points clear of the relegation play-off spot, has been plagued by silly errors and a lack of concentration this season.
Boavista have kept just two clean sheets since the start of February but nevertheless could find themselves on the score sheet with Gambian striker Yusupha Njie entering this match on the back of a sensational run of form.
However, Petit’s side have struggled against Portugal’s top four sides, only avoiding defeat just once in a 2-1 win against Sporting on September 17, whilst they have avoided defeat away from home on just three occasions this year – a 2-2 draw to Santa Clara on February 4, a 3-1 win at Paços de Ferreira on February 26 (both of whom occupy the bottom two) and a 1-1 draw at Vizela on April 17.
I’m expecting Porto to pick up their 23rd league win of the season and close out the month on a strong note against Boavista.
Olympiacos v Volos
A rotated Olympiacos side lacked energy and intensity in their 2-1 defeat away at a spirited Aris on Wednesday. The reigning Greek Super League champions will not be able to defend their title, as they currently sit as many as 12 points behind joint-leaders Panathinaikos and AEK Athens. Yet, Olympiacos have something to play for, as finishing third could potentially help them clinch Europa League qualification instead of Conference League football for next season.
Their game against Volos on Sunday will be the penultimate home game this season for Olympiacos, who have been handed a behind-closed-doors ban and will play without their supporters in their last home duel at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium against Panathinaikos after the fans’ pitch invasion led to riots against AEK Athens.
Hence, this means that Sunday’s game will be the last opportunity for Olympiacos fans to attend a game this season and also the team’s last chance to end the season on a positive note by offering some spectacle to their supporters against Volos.
Olympiacos are unbeaten in nine games against Volos. They have won seven of these duels and six of the aforementioned matches ended with more than 2.5 goals scored. In fact, their games against Volos feature 2.9 goals on average, while Olympiacos have beaten their upcoming opponents 3-0 and 4-0 in their last two encounters.
No Greek team have scored more home goals than Olympiacos this season, as the Greek Super League giants average almost 2.4 goals per match at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Their main issue is that their defence have been sloppy throughout the campaign, as Olympiacos have conceded at least one goal in each of their last six games.
As for Volos, the visitors have literally nothing to play for, as they can’t finish higher than sixth in the table. They have lost five of their six games in the playoffs and were lucky not to be defeated in a 0-0 draw against Panathinaikos, who hit the woodwork twice and missed a stoppage-time penalty.
Volos concede and score at least one goal per game on the road and have allowed in a total of nine goals in the last three matches. If there’s a team who need a win here, that’s Olympiacos, who are expected to field a strong XI and offer their fans an exciting, open duel.
PAOK v Aris Thessaloniki
Having lost four of their last five league games, PAOK are in desperate need to bounce back and gain momentum in this last stretch of the season. They may have nothing to play for in the league, as they have secured European qualification, but they are aware that they should be fresh and ready when they face AEK Athens in the Greek Cup final in less than a month.
PAOK were anything but ready last weekend, when a dominant AEK made the most of their numerical superiority after the visitors went down to 10 men early in the game to secure a comfortable 4-0 victory.
PAOK coach Razvan Lucescu stated after the match that the team have already forgot about the result and they are focused on the game against Aris. Sunday’s result won’t decide anything in the league, but a derby is always a derby and PAOK are aware that they can use a potential win as a springboard to end the season on a positive note.
After going five games without a single win in the Thessaloniki derby, PAOK grabbed victories in both their last two matches against Aris. In fact, they beat their city rivals in style back in March, when Aris took a first-half lead on home soil, but a spirited PAOK turned the game around after the interval.
Meanwhile, Aris do head into Sunday’s duel after winning two games in a row to seal fifth position. They have nothing to play for either, but they will take to the Toumba pitch in their bid to build on their momentum and deal another blow to PAOK.
Yet, they have neither the quality nor the squad depth that PAOK boast. Players will be tired after the effort they made to beat Olympiacos at home on Wednesday and they are aware that they will face a hostile atmosphere at Toumba Stadium.
There are only two home games left for PAOK and this is by far their most important league game in the remainder of the season. PAOK have demonstrated this season that they know how to beat Aris and they should be expected to do so for the third time in a row.
Panathinaikos v AEK Athens
Considered as the most crucial game of the 2022/23 campaign, Sunday’s duel between joint-leaders Panathinaikos and AEK Athens is expected to decide the title. The hosts come to this game on the back of a professional win away Volos. This was their fourth victory in a row after recording back-to-back draws at home against Volos and away at AEK.
As for the visitors, they have come out victorious from all their last five league games, recording back-to-back convincing victories away at Olympiacos and at home against PAOK.
The two teams have faced each other three times thus far. Panathinaikos were awarded two penalties to turn the game around and secure a 2-1 victory over AEK on home soil. This was the only time in the last five encounters between the two teams where more than 2.5 goals were scored. In fact, only two of Panathinaikos’ last 16 games ended with more than 2.5 goals scored. Both games were 2-1 wins, where they were lucky to net late in the game.
This is how Panathinaikos have managed to come so far. They have not impressed in attack at any point this season, but they boast the finest defence in the league. In fact, no big-four (Olympiacos, Panathinaikos, AEK Athens and PAOK) side have scored fewer goals than Panathinaikos (45) this season.
However, no team in the league have conceded fewer goals than the title contenders (13). Panathinaikos have kept as many as 10 clean sheets in their last 12 games and this will be their primary objective against the joint-best attack in the league.
No team have scored more goals than AEK (63) in 2022/23, but Matias Almeyda’s attack have struggled to break down Panathinaikos’ defence in the three duels between the two teams this season. AEK have scored just twice in three games against their upcoming opponents despite averaging almost two goals per match.
Playing away at a Panathinaikos this time, AEK are not expected to opt for an open game. Even if they try to do so, there is no team who can manage games and dictate the tempo better than Panathinaikos this season. Eight of the last 10 games between the two teams have ended with fewer than 2.5 goals scored and this is something we should expect from Sunday’s Athens derby too.
Rapid Vienna v Sturm Graz
The most anticipated ÖFB Cup Final in years takes place on Sunday night as Rapid Vienna look to end an unprecedented 15-year trophy drought against Sturm Graz at Klagenfurt’s Wörthersee Stadion. The dominance of Red Bull Salzburg in the ÖFB Cup has been almost absolute since 2014, with only Sturm breaking the streak in 2018 – so the opportunity to lift silverware for both clubs is an opportunity to savour.
Both clubs secured positive results in mid-week with 10-man Rapid securing a creditable draw at home against Salzburg, whilst Sturm triumphed with a comeback victory over Austria Vienna. However, in head-to-heads between the two, Sturm Graz are unbeaten in nine contests against the Green & Whites (6 wins and 3 draws) and have won all three meetings in 2022/23 so far.
Despite the romanticism of a Rapid Vienna victory, it is hard to look beyond Sturm claiming a sixth ÖFB Cup title to cap off a sublime season for Christian Ilzer’s side. Only three points behind Salzburg in the title race and quite clearly the second best side in the country – an ÖFB Cup crown for Sturm Graz would be the perfect way to re-announce the club as a title-chasing force again.
Bologna v Juventus
It has slightly gone under the radar with European games coming in between, but Juventus have actually lost their last three in Serie A. It is relevant to say that two of those games were against the top two sides in the division.
Massimiliano Allegri will have absolutely no shame in producing a thoroughly un-entertaining performance if it means that his team can get another three points on the board and remain in the top four.
Bologna have been one of Serie A’s best sides in 2023 but they did have an unexpected slip up last time out when they lost 2-1 away at relegation-threatened Hellas Verona. They will surely put a better performance in here, but Juventus have a way of ensuring that they win these kinds of games 1-0.
It is not one to build your weekend around unless Bologna suddenly manage to burst into an early lead. That is unlikely though as it will be safety-first from a team that has the third best defence in the division, having conceded just 26 times.
Juventus did enough to win the game against Napoli and it was only after two disallowed goals that they conceded the stoppage time goal from Giacomo Raspadori. They will feel aggrieved by that and will be desperate to win here.
Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid
Despite defeat to Barcelona last weekend, Atlético Madrid bounced back in midweek to beat Mallorca with a thumping 3-1 victory and will be looking to extend their winning streak to two matches. It comes as Atleti remain the second-best team in the competition on form in the 2023 calendar year, only narrowly behind LaLiga leaders Barcelona.
It had looked as though Valladolid’s form was picking up after they secured a draw and back-to-back wins under new coach Paulo Pezzolano, but they came crashing back down to earth with a bump with a 2-1 defeat to relegation rivals Valencia on Thursday. That result means that they remain just four points clear of the drop zone with seven games to go.
That means that Atlético will be even more confident as they return to the Estadio José Zorrilla, the site where they won LaLiga a little under two years ago. Atleti are unbeaten in 13 games against Valladolid in LaLiga dating back to 2009, with one draw and 12 wins during that time. Diego Simeone will be confident of extending that streak.
With captain Koke back in the team in midweek after injury, and Álvaro Morata finding his scoring boots after a dry spell, Atleti will almost certainly have just too much quality for Valladolid to stop them. Given that the home team have recorded just one clean sheet in their last 10 games, preventing Atlético from scoring could be a big ask.
Flamengo v Botafogo
Sunday evening sees the latest edition of the Clássico da Rivalidade as Flamengo host Botafogo in an all-Rio de Janeiro affair.
The sides most recently met in February of this year in the Rio State Championship. On that occasion, it was the Rubro Negro who enjoyed a 1-0 victory away from home, thanks to a goal in the opening minute from 17-year-old Matheus Goncalves.
Flamengo come into this match in decent form with three wins from their last four games as they slowly adjust to life under Jorge Sampaoli. After winning their first two matches, the Rubro Negro suffered their first loss under Sampaoli, as Internacional saw them off in a 2-1 win, thanks to a stoppage-time winner from Mauricio.
Flamengo will be disappointed at not getting the win in the game as they had a greater XG than their opponents with 1.78 compared to Inter’s 1.09.
In midweek, Flamengo took on Maringa in the Copa do Brasil and after losing the first leg 2-0, the Rubro Negro players came out fighting, enjoying an 8-2 triumph, something which will give them great confidence coming into this battle.
Botafogo come into this match on a great run, as they have won six straight matches in all competitions. Their latest league match, saw them enjoy a 2-1 victory away from home against newly promoted Bahia. Despite having an XG of just 0.21 compared to Bahia’s 0.97, Fogo were more clinical on the night and made the most of their limited chances.
Luis Castro’s side and Fluminense are the only teams to have a 100% record in the Brasileirão this season.
Despite Botafogo’s impressive run, Flamengo comes into this match as clear favourites. The Rubro Negro have won their last two matches against Fogo and found their scoring touch in midweek, which will give them the confidence coming into the game against their rivals.
Internacional v Goias
After both winning in their last league outings, Internacional and Goias lock horns at the Estádio Beira-Rio in Porto Alegre.
An opening-day draw with Fortaleza was followed by a narrow victory over Venezuelan side Metropolitanos in the Copa Libertadores.
Inter then faced a tricky home match against Flamengo in their second league game. Going into the game as underdogs, the away side opened the scoring, in the second half through Gerson. Manager, Mano Menezes, responded with three changes and instantly Internacional hit the jackpot, as Mauricio put the sides on level terms just moments after coming on.
Then, in stoppage time, Mauricio was at it again, as he added his second of the game, to give Inter a huge three points. In midweek, the Porto Alegre club took on CSA in the Copa do Brasil and survived a scare to progress to the next round on penalties.
With no cup matches in midweek, Goias have had a rare week to prepare for the match here.
After a disappointing display in their season opener with Athletico Paranaense, Esmeraldino put in a wonderful display at home last weekend as they saw off Corinthians in 3-1 victory. Goias racked up an XG of 1.06 compared to Corinthians’ 0.37, showing they were well worth their win. The triumph ended a run of two matches without a win and one they will be looking to build on from.
Inter will be without Aranguiz and Gabriel here both are yet to feature this season, whilst Goias will be without Gabriel Novaes.
Coming into this game, the fact that Internacional are at home and come into the game off the back of an impressive win against Flamengo, they should have enough to win here, something which has happened in the last three meetings between these two sides.
Nacional v Bolivar
Nacional have been blowing hot and cold all season, with five wins and six defeats to their name, and that inconsistency continues despite the recent change of manager, with Andrada making way for Robatto.
They actually won a couple of games, against Universitario de Vinto and Independiente to only get thumped in Cobija by Vaca Diez midweek. Bolivar for their part can also be accused of radical inconsistency, they started the season with two wins, followed by two defeats, followed by five wins in a row, but then slumped again, losing three and drawing the other in a four-game stint.
They since recovered midweek, putting five past Pari’s hapless defence. Chilean striker Fernandez is on fire with nine goals to his name already this season, Erling Haaland eat your heart out.
Bolivar lead the series in Potosi convincingly. Interestingly the goal average between these two is high, at 3.52, and there have been at least three goals in 30 of the 44 encounters and only one 0-0.
Bolivar seem the most likely winners, but for me, goals are the way to go when betting on this game.
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