It’s always tricky to be extremely confident in juvenile or novice events, as there are many potential improvers lurking. However, on the little evidence over hurdles thus far, SECRET FORCE is the obvious selection. The ex-Godolphin inmate is two from two for his new yard, and has winning form on a deep surface.

The manner in which he pulled away from his main rival over the last at Punchestown was impressive, and he could extend his winning spree. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small each-way saver on Hopes Are High, who ran second to my selection last time, but has a 10lb pull in the weights here.

I’m surprised that JULY FLOWER and Be Aware are so close to each other in the betting. The latter scored well on chase debut at Stratford, admittedly. However, on closer inspection, I feel he is worth taking on today. His second in last year’s Greatwood Handicap Hurdle was a tremendous effort, and yes he has a fine record in the book over hurdles, but I have a lingering thought that he won’t likely appreciate this deep surface.

His sole effort on soft was a second-placed-finish in a Lingfield novice event. I much prefer the chance of July Flower, who not only has a higher hurdle rating, but crucially has proven winning form on deep ground – twice a winner on very soft and once on heavy ground in France. She is also in receipt of 7lb from Be Aware, so has to be the logical choice. 

This 3m1f Handicap Chase is likely to develop into a war of attrition – especially if any of the amateur jockeys set a mindless, quick pace. With that in focus, I’m drawn to KELCE (no, not Travis of NFL and Taylor Swift-fame).

His stable (and owner) won this event last season, with thorough stayer Transmission, and Kelce has a similar profile. He ran a huge race to finish fourth on his seasonal debut, over track and trip. I’m confident that he will come on for that outing and be able to compete for the placings.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is often a springboard for top chasers, and the race has become a prestigious event in its own right. Let’s quickly discuss something I loathe in racing, when selecting my runners. As much as this may be psychological, I hate it when numerous other tipsters and folk tip my horse.

You could argue that it’s a positive – considering I may have spotted something others agree with – but that often means that the price contracts too much. I prefer to go ‘against the grain’ and select a unique runner, when applicable of course. Step forward HOE JOLY SMOKE, who frustratingly, has been well supported, but it will have been obvious to see why. I tipped him when a fine third at this venue last time, where he seemed to find little when asked to go and win his race.

I’m going to give him another chance to prove me wrong there, and this drop in trip could work perfectly. I expect him to travel well into the contest and strike at the final fence. A placing would also be a decent enough result, considering how strong the race may prove to be.

Come 2.55pm, the ground at Prestbury Park could be akin to an otter’s pocket. One horse, who should relish these deep conditions, is KIKIJO. The son of German sire Estejo is certainly bred for a stamina test.

His dam is an unraced half-sister to a 3m hurdle winner, and has the smart 3m-winning chaser, Ungaro, in his family line. Kikijo’s two career victories have come under soft conditions, and he is a lightly-raced five-year-old with scope for improvement. I hope he can show that potential progress this afternoon.

Jurancon and Kap Bay are obvious contenders, but I’m going to take them on. The former is an ultra-consistent individual, and could find further improvement this campaign, but may not be at his best after a lengthy absence. The latter scored impressively on handicap debut at Perth, but has been raised 9lb and is up in distance.

ROYAL INFANTRY is the more likely, I feel, of the three to run his race and be involved when it matters. The Soldier Of Fortune gelding was a fine third in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on reappearance, and may prove fitter for that run. He is a progressive type, who ran fairly in a Graded and Listed race last term, too.

He handles deep ground and is likely to appreciate the deteriorating conditions better than most, for a trainer who arrives in excellent form.