AZ are priced at 1.11 to win this game which seems unfair to IIves when looking at their first leg performance and general performances in the Veikkausliiga this term. IIves recorded a shock 4-3 victory over AZ in the first leg, leaving this tie pretty open which is why I’m surprised that AZ are such heavy favourites for this game. 

AZ were the better side in the first leg but didn’t manage to quell the efforts of IIves who had 14 shots in the first leg, seven of which managed to find the target. They managed to return this tally with only 35% of the ball which would suggest that they are more than comfortable with being without the ball and still having the ability to create chances. AZ needed a 91st minute goal to reduce the deficit to just one goal which aids our selection here as it should be a pretty open game, as the first leg was. 

IIves have managed to avoid defeat in six of their nine away games in the Finnish top flight this season. They’ve scored 19 goals across these away fixtures so they have the firepower to cause AZ problems, especially when assessing their underlying attacking metrics from the first leg. AZ should score with the volume of shots they had in the first leg (23) but their defensive vulnerability could be their undoing here if they underestimate the determination of this IIves side.

AIK should be able to get the job done from this position. They recorded a 2-0 win away from home against Paide in the first leg which was always going to be the most awkward part of the assignment. Now that they have that lead to protect, pressing home that advantage at home should be a formality. 

The 2-0 lead is not a guarantee for progression to the next round which actually aids this selection as it means that AIK don’t have much room for complacency and should be faced by a side that is forced to leave gaps at the back as they search for a goal to reignite the tie. AIK dominated the attacking metrics in the first leg and unsettled Paide by scoring early on, taking the lead after just seven minutes. 

AIK should look for another fast start here which would fully shut down any hopes of a Paide revival. AIK are progressing steadily domestically in the Allsvenskan in which they currently sit fourth, 10 points off league leaders Mjallby. Their home form is particularly impressive with the Swedish side yet to lose a game from their eight fixtures at home in the Allsvenskan (5 wins, 3 draws).

AEK Athens still have work to do in this second leg after claiming a 1-0 victory over Hapoel in the first leg meeting which took place in Greece. AEK Athens are looking to return to European football after a one season absence from Europe, they have also regularly competed as part of these qualifying rounds over the last few seasons and this experience will be really valuable in a tight tie like this. 

Hapoel only managed four shots in the first leg with just one of these attempts finding the target. AEK registered 11 shots in the first leg with five of these attempts finding the target. These numbers suggest that Hapoel went with quite a conservative approach in the first leg to ensure that they were not out of the tie before their home leg. 

That being said, Hapoel now find themselves in a position where they may be forced to break out of their shell to find a way back into the tie. This is where AEK Athens can fully press home their advantage over Hapoel in exposing the home side on the break where there are sure to be more gaps than there were in the first leg clash.

It’s really difficult to pick out a winner from this tie. The first leg ended in a 3-2 victory for Belarussian side Neman Grodno who were the away side in the first leg which gives them a slight advantage coming into this second leg tie. It was a very even game, both sides registered similar shot totals (10-9) as well as possession numbers (51%-49%) which would suggest that this game should follow the pattern of the first leg. 

Neman have a pretty black and white home record in the Belarussian Premier League. They’ve won four and lost four of their eight home games, scoring 10 goals across these fixtures and conceding seven. This record suggests that this tie is far from over and that Neman can be vulnerable at home, despite their strong away performance in the first leg. FC Kosice saw 35 goals across their 16 away games in the Slovakian 1. Liga last season (2.18 per game) which indicates that we could get similar fireworks to the five goals that were produced in the first leg of this Conference League playoff tie.