Helsingborg v Vasteras
After being relegated from the Allsvenskan last season, Helsingborg would have expected to mount a serious and sustained title challenge, let alone flirt with the idea of promotion. The home team, have, though, began the 2023 Superettan campaign with back-to-back defeats and they now face a Vasteras side that have started with four points from their opening two matches, continuing on their good form from the end of last season.
Following relegation last season, Helsingborg have stuck by their co-management duo of Mattias Lindstrom and Alvaro Santos, but they will be getting a little twitchy with their start to the campaign.
A 1-0 loss at home to last season’s losing Allsvenskan/Superettan relegation/promotion side, Osters, could potentially be forgiven, given that Osters are expected to challenge for promotion once again this season, but following that up with a 1-0 defeat at newly-promoted Gefle is less easy to explain away and move on from.
After finishing last season ninth in the table with ten wins, ten draws and ten defeats in the 2022 Superettan season, a push towards the top three would not be out of the question for Vasteras. However, since gaining promotion from the Ettan Norra in 2018, they have finished between 12th and 7th in all four of their seasons.
They come into this on the back of a goalless draw with Orgryte IS last weekend, which followed on from beginning their season with a strong 2-1 win away at Brage on the opening weekend.
Helsingborg, with their home advantage, will be confident of finally putting together a victory but they face stiff opposition. This could become quite a tense and nervy affair and, therefore, a likely low-scoring encounter.
Osters v Eskilstuna
Last season, Osters missed out on promotion to the top-flight in the end of season Allsvenskan/Superettan relegation/promotion playoff, losing to Varberg after an impressive third-place finish. AFC Eskilstuna, on the other hand, began with four straight wins but quickly became one of the more frustrating yet entertaining sides in the 2022 Superettan.
Under the management of Srdjan Tufegdzic, Osters are seeking to go one step further than they did last year. Their start to the 2023 season has been a very impressive one with back-to-back victories.
The home team come into this on the back of a dramatic 1-0 win away at just relegated and likely to be fellow promotion contenders Helsingborg on the opening day of the season before a 5-2 hammering of Trelleborg in their most recent outing, last weekend.
After starting last season, as mentioned, with four wins, AFC Eskilstuna went on to win just eight of their remaining 26 matches. That run has now been extended to 28 games.
They have started this year with just one point collected in their opening two matches and come into this on the back of a 1-0 loss at home to just relegated GIF Sundsvall, following on from a 2-2 draw with last year’s second-tier/third-tier relegation/promotion playoff winners OIS in their opening match of the season.
Given the form of the two sides, the general quality of the hosts and, indeed, their home advantage, Osters come into this as firm favourites to continue their fine start to the season.
Bologna v AC Milan
Both of these teams are going to come into Saturday’s Serie A fixture in a pretty positive mindset, particularly the home team. The Rossoblu have been enjoying a really good second half of the season under Thiago Motta.
The team looks really well-balanced with some very good technical players and they will back themselves to get something at home against an inconsistent AC Milan team.
Bologna have scored seven times in their last three Serie A games and even though will be without Roberto Soriano, the likes of Musa Barrow, Riccardo Orsolini, and Nicola Sansone have all been in a good run of form.
Don’t be surprised if they look to pounce on any tiredness in the Milan ranks following their Champions League exploits with a really fast start at the Stadio Renato dall’Ara which yields a goal.
As for Milan, their recent form in games against teams that aren’t Napoli has been poor and left a lot to be desired but there is evidence of them finding their attacking feet again, especially through the likes of Rafael Leao and Brahim Diaz.
They know that they need a huge end to the season and Stefano Pioli has repeatedly said in recent press conferences that they are poised for a big finish to the season. They will be looking to kill this game early and that could mean there are goals at both ends.
Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
Even after a Klassiker defeat to Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund are somehow in the Bundesliga title race. They remain just two points behind the Rekordmeister following last weekend’s win against fellow challengers Union Berlin, with BVB responding well after Union’s Kevin Behrens equalised. Young prodigy Youssoufa Moukoko was the hero for Dortmund again with a winner in the 79th minute and with doubts over Sebastien Haller’s fitness, Moukoko could start against Stuttgart.
But with a trip to Stuttgart, Borussia Dortmund do have a difficult game ahead of themselves. Stuttgart dismissed Bruno Labbadia with the club bottom of the Bundesliga following a 3-0 defeat against Union Berlin at the start of the month. But Sebastian Hoeness has come in and secured VfB a place in the German Cup semi-final after beating Nurnberg, whilst picking up an important 3-2 win against relegation rivals Bochum last weekend, their first away win since December 2021, and thus moving Stuttgart off the bottom of the table.
Hoeness has switched to a back three, something that Edin Terzic noted in his press conference on Thursday – against Donyell Malen, Julian Brandt, Marco Reus and Co, expect the Stuttgart defence to be in for a busy afternoon.
If Borussia Dortmund are to win the Bundesliga title, they must win their next seven games, starting against Stuttgart and hope that Bayern Munich slip up, which is a real possibility following their German Cup exit whilst they need a miracle against Manchester City in the Champions League.
Speaking prior to Dortmund’s trip south, Edin Terzic stated that Nico Schlotterbeck is unavailable whilst Nikas Sule has a hamstring problem and may not feature. That doesn’t leave Dortmund with many options centrally. Mats Hummels will retain his place whilst we could see Emre Can move into a back four, with Marius Wolf and Raphael Guerreiro at full-back.
Borussia Dortmund haven’t won any of their last four away games across all competitions but have the quality within their squad to do so against a revitalised Stuttgart. Their mentality will certainly come into question and trailing two points to Bayern Munich, Saturday’s game against VfB is an excellent opportunity to show that they’re still in this title fight.
Motherwell v Dundee United
Outside of Rangers and Celtic, Motherwell are perhaps the form team in the Scottish Premiership currently, having found themselves rejuvenated under the management of Stuart Kettlewell. Five wins in their last seven have powered them away from any lingering relegation worries and they will expect another three points on Saturday against Dundee United, which would effectively ensure survival.
Motherwell’s home record overall this season has been poor, with just four wins from 15 matches, but in recent weeks it has been strong. Wins have come against St Mirren, Hearts and Livingston, while the exception was a competitive loss against Rangers.
Dundee United, meanwhile, have been in dreadful form. Although they won 2-1 against Hibs last weekend, a scalp that should not be underestimated, they had picked up only three points in 11 previous matches. Moreover, their record on their travels has been woeful, with just one win coming in 15 games, in which they have scored only 12 goals.
The head-to-head record between the clubs this season offers the Terrors only mild comfort. They picked up a 0-0 draw against the Steelmen on their last visit to Motherwell in September, but as demonstrated, the Well’s home form has been transformed in recent weeks. When the clubs last met, United went down to a 1-0 defeat.
Look for Motherwell to continue their hot streak in this match to potentially give them an outside chance of reaching the top six before visiting Celtic next weekend.
Raith Rovers v Arbroath
Raith Rovers manager Iain Murray may be putting a brave face on things, but the reality is that his side’s season is over and they limp into a home match against Arbroath on Saturday simply seeking to get a team on the park – a challenge that looks easier said than done for the Kirkcaldy club.
Raith are battling terrific injury problems, which were summed up in midweek as they went down 2-0 against Dundee, when they had just two outfield substitutes on the bench after Brad Spencer picked up an injury in the warm up. Earlier in the day, goalkeeper Jamie MacDonald had pulled out because of a bad back and he is just one of a host of players struggling to make it for Saturday’s match.
Unsurprisingly, these problems are reflected in recent results. Raith have lost six of their last eight – including two defeats against second bottom Hamilton – while they have won just two of their last 10, one of which was against Cove Rangers.
Arbroath may be mired in relegation danger, meanwhile, but their form is competitive. A midweek loss at Inverness was their first defeat in seven, while they were much the better side in the Highlands for the best part of an hour.
Unlike the home side, meanwhile, Dick Campbell’s men still have motivation at this late stage of the season, sitting only three points clear of the relegation playoff spot. Arbroath should be considered good value at 2.3 on the draw no bet market, but they are well overpriced at 1.73 to avoid defeat, particularly as they drew 1-1 at Stark’s Park in December and have only lost five road matches this season.
Cove Rangers v Inverness CT
Back Inverness to continue their recent strong spell of form by overcoming Cove Rangers in Aberdeen on Saturday, with these two sides going into the match in completely contrasting manners.
Paul Hartley’s Cove Rangers side have found themselves out of their depth in recent weeks. In their last 15 matches in all competitions, they have suffered 11 defeats, with their sole victory an out-of-character success over Partick Thistle away from home.
Until they drew 1-1 with second-bottom Hamilton last weekend, they had been on a run of six successive losses, while they have been beaten in four of their last five home games. What has been particularly worrying for Cove is that they have not just ben losing games, they have been getting well beaten. Since March 18, they have lost 6-1 to Raith Rovers, 3-0 to Ayr and 5-0 at home to Partick.
Inverness, meanwhile, have been making steady progress in recent weeks. Their last six games have produced seven victories, including a 2-0 midweek success over a stuffy Arbroath side at home. They now have the carrot of a playoff place dangling just two points beyond them, meaning they have ample motivation going into the final weeks of the season.
Cove, meanwhile, have numerous injury doubts prior to this match while ICT boast a reasonably clean bill of health.
The final factor worth consideration approaching this game is the head-to-head record. Inverness have won all three between the clubs this season by an aggregate score of 11-2. Although they only won 1-0 when the sides last met in Aberdeen, ICT at 3.75 on a -1 handicap looks a tempter, with 1.9 on them getting the victory very good indeed.
Kelty Hearts v Alloa
Alloa find their playoff position threatened going into the final four matches of the season, and if they want to feature in the post-season, they will have to find a way to overcome Kelty on Saturday. The Wasps should have it in their wheelhouse to do so.
Previous results certainly suggest that Alloa should at least pick something up from this fixture. After beating Kelty 3-1 in August, they have since recorded successive draws with the Fife club, whose form has gone sharply downhill since the teams played out a scoreless draw on the final day of 2022.
Indeed, Kelty have nothing to play for in the final weeks of the season. They are well clear of relegation trouble but are unlikely to improve on seventh place. Their form, meanwhile, is not great. From their last 12 matches, John Potter’s side have picked up just a single victory, although they have drawn six times.
The hosts are also hampered with injury problems. They are liable to be deprived of two regular starting defenders because of injury for this game, while there are also doubts over Nathan Austin, their best forward, albeit a figure who has spent more time on the sidelines than on the field this term.
Alloa, meanwhile, do approach this match after successive home losses against Airdrie and Queen of the South, but both of these teams are in excellent form presently – unlike Kelty. With a strong squad available for this match, Alloa should be backed on a draw no bet basis to maximise any return, although supporting them outright would be understandable given they have drawn only one of their last 14 games.
Bonnyrigg v Dumbarton
Expect Bonnyrigg to take something from out-of-form Dumbarton when they play host to the Sons on Saturday at New Dundas Park.
Although they lie eighth in the table and in the teeth of the relegation dogfight, Rose find themselves in good form in the closing weeks of the campaign. They have lost only one of their last seven matches, which was a hard-fought defeat away to league leaders Stirling Albion. Since then, they have recorded two wins and two draws. Indeed, they have not conceded a goal in their last three matches.
Dumbarton, conversely, have seen their title aspirations falter in recent weeks. Stevie Farrell’s men have lost four of their last five matches, including a comfortable defeat away against Annan last weekend.
Crucially, the Sons have a miserable injury record at present. A midweek match against Stirling was postponed just minutes before kick off because of a waterlogged park and the feeling is that Dumbarton got a little lucky given that they only had two outfield substitutes named on their bench, one of which was a 16-year-old. It is not expected that their issues will have eased significantly before this game.
With just two wins in their last nine, morale is low in the Dumbarton camp and the mounting injury issues mean that the prospect of them winning at the weekend is limited. After all, they struggled to two 1-0 home wins against Bonnyrigg when in much better form, while their previous trip to Midlothian finished in a 1-1 draw.
This promises to be similarly tight.
Maritimo v Pacos de Ferreira
The 28th matchday of the 2022/23 Primeira Liga matchday season gets underway on Friday as Famalicão hosts Vitória de Guimarães, whilst Saturday’s action will kick off with a double header that will see Portimonense travel to Estoril Praia and Paços de Ferreira pay a visit to Marítimo.
Despite falling to a 3-1 home defeat to Famalicão at the weekend, Paços sit two points above last-place Santa Clara, two points behind Marítimo, and eight behind Estoril, and they’ll be looking to move into the relegation play-off spot with a a fifth win of the season.
Each of Marítimo’s last four fixtures against Paços have produced less than 2.5 goals, with Marítimo grabbing a 1-0 victory in October via an early goal from Jesús Ramírez, and I’m expecting this one to be similar. It has been a rocky campaign for both sides – Marítimo sacked manager Vasco Seabra after five losses in five matches, with João Henriques lasting until December before being replaced by José Gomes.
Paços would sack César Peixoto following a defeat after losing 2-0 to third-tier Vitória F.C. in the Taça de Portugal, only to bring him back 11 weeks later after his replacement, the legendary manager José Mota who led them to Europe for the first time in club history, took five defeats and two draws in seven.
Paços secured a vital relegation six-pointer win on March 11, beating Santa Clara 1-0 via a penalty goal from captain and Portugal international Vitorino Antunes, before securing a 1-1 draw at Arouca with Nicolás Gaitán scoring the equalizer. They would draw 0-0 at Vitória despite falling to 10 men in the 77th minute after goalkeeper Marafona was sent off, but despite taking the lead early on, they would concede the equalizer before the break and fall to a 3-1 defeat via a second-half Iván Jaime brace for Famalicão.
Marítimo began March with a 2-0 loss to Gil Vicente before losing 3-0 to Benfica, 2-0 to Casa Pia, and returning from the international break with a 4-2 victory against Boavista, only to fall to a 1-0 loss to Arouca at the weekend.
Neither team is finding the back of the net on a consistent basis at the moment, and both managers will be looking to keep their cards close to their chest and compensate for their lack of goals up top with an disciplined, conservative approach in defence. I’m expecting a fairly low-scoring affair in what should be an entertaining relegation six-pointer in Madeira.
Athletic Club v Real Sociedad
The Basque Derby takes place this Saturday afternoon, and it’s an especially important one given that both teams are fighting for European qualification. Athletic Club are holding on to seventh, which should become a European berth if Real Madrid win the cup, while Real Sociedad are currently clinging on to the final Champions League spot.
Neither is in especially good form as they approach this derby, with both the Bilbao side and the San Sebastián club having taken just eight points from their past six matches, based on two wins, two draws and two defeats. Both earned victory last weekend, though, so confidence will be high in both cities.
The bookies have Athletic Club as the favourites for this one and, given how even both teams’ recent form has been, the main reason for this is home advantage. And that could end up being the difference.
Real Sociedad coach Imanol Alguacil has a good derby record of eight wins, two draws and two defeats, but he has only twice coached away in front of the Athletic fans at San Mamés and those games were his two defeats, a 2-0 in 2019 and last year’s 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Los Leones. His only other visit to Bilbao was behind closed doors during Covid times, while every other positive result he has secured has been at a neutral venue or in San Sebastián.
In front of a boisterous home crowd that craves derby success and a return to Europe, Athletic Club might just edge this Saturday’s derby duel.
VPS v HJK
A tough road trip for HJK this Saturday follows a professional but sluggish win over Honka last week. The champions looked very comfortable to begin with, despite the early injury to Anthony Olusanya. Goals from Tanaka and Radulovic settled nerves but Honka did create dangerous opportunities. Topi Keskinen stepped in and impressed but isn’t yet ready to fill the numerous gaps in the HJK line-up. Olysanya was excellent in the league last year and may be out for a few weeks. The return of Lucas Lingman will provide craft in midfield, if a quality striker can be brought in.
VPS hosted Lahti on the opening day and it was the drabbest of 0-0 draws between two poor sides. They were very much a team of two faces in 2022 and the dangerous attacking one failed to show in a game that they would have looked at for an early boost. Russian midfielder Evgeniy Bashkirov was man of the match and has made a big impression in the dressing room in his short time at the club, but is the combative style that may save them points but won’t win them.
HJK are used to being the favourites to win these fixtures, but their successes in Europe are yet to turn money into scintillating domestic performances. This should be a formality and the champions should continue their winning start.
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