Friday & Saturday’s La Liga Predictions & Best Bets

Levante v Elche

Bottom-placed Levante are hoping to pull off a great escape and they come into this matchday in what is, for them, relatively good form. Having won away at Atlético Madrid and drawn away at Celta Vigo in their past two matches, four of Levante’s 15 points this season have been collected in the past 10 days. 

However, this is still a very poor Levante team and it’s quite startling to see them favoured so heavily by the bookies against an Elche side that is on a good run. Since Francisco took over as Elche coach at the start of December, they have had the seventh-best record in all of LaLiga, winning five, drawing two and losing three of their 10 fixtures. 

Their most recent win came last Friday night against Rayo Vallecano, when they were once again underdogs in the view of the bookies. Elche will now make the short 130-kilometre trip to face Levante and they’ll be confident of taking at least a draw against the worst team in the league, especially with star striker Lucas Boyé back from an injury. 

Levante are at home and they are desperate, but Elche have been a far better team over recent months and are worth backing here, especially when there is so much value in doing so.

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Real Mallorca v Valencia

Real Mallorca vs Valencia is the first of Saturday’s matches and this is an interesting one, with Valencia still seeking their first league victory of the calendar year and with Real Mallorca having won each of their past three home matches across all competitions. This has the home side as the favourites, but the true value might be in the score betting markets. 

This could be a game with many goals, looking at what has happened in recent Real Mallorca home games and Valencia away games. In those three home Real Mallorca victories in a row, both teams scored each time and there were over 2.5 goals each time, as they won 2-1 vs Espanyol, 2-1 vs Cádiz and 3-2 vs Athletic Club. Looking at Valencia’s past three away games in LaLiga Santander, the same is true as they lost 4-1 at Real Madrid, lost 3-2 at Atlético Madrid and lost 2-1 at Alavés. 

There is no reason why these patterns should change this weekend, with Real Mallorca’s games as end-to-end as ever because of the injuries to Iddrisu Baba and Íñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, the two starting defensive midfielders in their 4-2-3-1 system. Valencia, meanwhile, are still expected to be porous at the back as they have defensive injuries and are missing starting goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen. 

This could be a fun game to start off Saturday’s action, with many goals expected. That makes either a both teams to score bet (1.85) or an over 2.5 goals bet (2.20) worth looking at.

Getafe v Alavés

Getafe will set out to keep up their impressive home form on Saturday when they host Alavés at the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. Geta have won six and drawn one of their past seven games there, including four wins in a row against Osasuna, Real Madrid, Granada and Levante. 

It makes sense, therefore, that Getafe are heavily favoured against this Alavés side that have the very worst away form in the division. They have had three away games since José Luis Mendilibar took over as coach and haven’t fared any better, losing 4-0 at Real Betis, 3-1 at Elche and 3-0 at Real Madrid. 

Alavés’ performances are improving little by little, though, even if results haven’t always followed. They also have their entire squad available for the first time in a long time, with no injuries or suspensions. Even if Getafe make this a physical game, this is an area where Alavés thrive too and they won’t be fazed by the prospect of a slugfest. 

It shouldn’t, therefore, be easy for Getafe to make it five home victories in a row. But, they are still the clear favourites for a reason.

Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid

On Saturday evening, league leaders Real Madrid will make the short trip across Spain’s capital to take on Rayo Vallecano. A few weeks ago, that would have been a very daunting prospect, as Rayo Vallecano boasted the best home form in all of Europe’s top five leagues. 

That’s in the past tense, though. Rayo’s home form has dropped off dramatically, partly because of off-the-pitch conflict between ownership and fans. In their previous home game, the main section of supporters refused to take their seats right behind one of the goals because of restrictions that had been imposed on then, leaving that whole section empty and meaning there was virtually no atmosphere. That set the stage for Osasuna to thrash Rayo 3-0 on their own turf. This conflict hasn’t yet been resolved and, even if the visit of Real Madrid is an exciting one, the famous Vallecas roar isn’t expected to be quite as fierce as usual. 

Another factor in Rayo’s poor league form, with no victory in LaLiga Santander in 2022, is the fact that they have been on a good Copa del Rey run. The semi-final second leg away at Real Betis will take place in the midweek after this Saturday’s game, so they might be distracted and looking ahead to that game as they meet Real Madrid in the league.

Real Madrid are in a perfect position, therefore, to take advantage of Rayo’s problems and distractions. Carlo Ancelotti has all his players available and comes into this fixture after one free midweek and ahead of another free midweek, a rare situation for Los Blancos. They should go out there and do the business.

Atlético Madrid v Celta Vigo

Atlético Madrid played a really good game against Manchester United in midweek and were unlucky not to win that first leg in the Champions League last 16. Diego Simeone’s side can take a lot of positives from that performance, though, and they’ll know that if they can play against Celta Vigo like they did against the English side then the three points are there to be won.

The motivation is certainly there for Atlético Madrid as they need every point they can muster in LaLiga Santander in order to ensure they qualify for next season’s Champions League, while they can give all they’ve got when they host Celta Vigo since they’ll have a rare free midweek afterwards. 

Celta Vigo are an awkward team that can make life difficult for opponents, even on the road, and the Galician outfit don’t have any injuries or suspensions. But, Atlético Madrid are getting healthier too as Antoine Griezmann has returned and they’ve overcome their mini COVID-19 outbreak. 

Backed by their home fans, Atleti should go out there under the Saturday night lights and take these three points.

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