Dover Athletic v Notts County
The shackles are off for Dover Athletic since their relegation from the National League.
Andy Hessenthaler’s side have scored in six of their last eight matches, including games against FC Halifax Town (one), Wrexham (five), Boreham Wood (two) and Chesterfield (two), all of whom sit in the top ten. They have scored in four of their last six home matches. They have also now scored in over half of their home matches this season. It means that if Notts County are going to beat them, it’s likely that they will have to score more than one goal to win the game.
That might not be a huge problem. Dover have conceded four and three goals in their last two matches. They have conceded two or more in five of nine home matches against top ten sides, conceded two or more in their last three home matches against top ten sides and conceded two or more in eight of their last ten matches against top ten sides home or away. Three or more goals have been scored in their last three matches, five of their last eight and each of their last six matches against top ten sides.
Notts County recently reverted to 4-2-3-1 with Callum Roberts, Aaron Nemane and Elisha Sam returning to the fold and immediately getting themselves on the scoresheet. Ian Burchnall’s side have scored three or more goals in each of their last three matches and two or more in six of their last seven against sides in the bottom half. There have been three or more goals in their last four matches and seven of their last nine.
Weymouth v Wrexham
If Weymouth lose on Tuesday night, they will officially be relegated to the National League South. If they could, they would probably request different opposition to Wrexham, a wounded beast following their defeat at Woking live on BT Sport.
Starting with Weymouth and to their credit, they have drawn three of their last four matches at home. However, they have conceded an average of 2.05 expected goals in their last four matches – meaning they have been outperforming their xG defensively, particularly in their 0-0 draws with Yeovil Town and Grimsby Town. They also conceded 2.04 and 2.81xG against Maidenhead United and Notts County away from home. They have generally found their games to be tight against the sides in the top ten, drawing three and losing three of eight home matches by one goal. However, they have conceded two or more goals in five of those matches and in eight of their 13 home matches against sides 15th or higher. Wrexham, meanwhile, score goals. They have scored 80 of them in their 39 matches this season. They are averaging 1.95 away from home. They have scored two or more in nine of their 11 away matches against sides 12th or lower. They also have a perfect record against sides 18th or lower in the league table, scoring two or more in nine of 11 matches. It feels like Weymouth are the perfect opposition to return to winning ways and do so in style.
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