Luke Humphries is priced as the second favourite to win the World Matchplay after bowing out in the first round last year to Gian Van Veen.

He’s got a much kinder start to the tournament this time around, with his first clash being against Cameron Menzies, who has repeatedly struggled with the pressure of playing on a stage like this.

Humphries has a really kind quarter here; he’ll take on Kevin Doets or Ross Smith in the next round if he gets past Menzies, which is another test you’d expect him to come through.

The key thing with backing Humphries is always looking at where Littler sits in the draw; he’s on the opposite side here, so the two would only meet in the final if they both battled through to that point. 

I can’t see many players living with Humphries in this format on his side of the draw, setting up another very likely meeting between the two Lukes in another major final. 

Humphries should also have plenty of personal motivation here, aside from the World Cup of Darts; he hasn’t had much success in the major tournaments since his dominance back in 2024 - when he won the World Matchplay, impressively beating James Wade and Michael van Gerwen in the final stages.

This section of the draw looks really open with Michael van Gerwen, Jonny Clayton and Gary Anderson all possible contenders to emerge.

I really like backing Clayton at this price point as I always think he’s underestimated. It was the same for the Premier League campaign earlier this year, he’s shown he can compete - and even beat - some of the best players in the field, and I think he’s got a kind start here against Damon Heta.

He battled to the semi-finals of the World Matchplay last year, losing out to James Wade, who went on to lose to Luke Littler in the final. Wade and Clayton are probably the two players I’d back the most to cause either of the two Lukes real problems, just from their experience and how comfortable they can be in these longer format matches.

Clayton doesn’t quite get the advantage of avoiding Littler until the final, but I think he can emerge as the strongest player from this quarter of the draw and hold his own against the very elite players.

I’m very fascinated by how this quarter has been priced, Wessel Nijman is the favourite to emerge from this section of the draw - and is actually the third favourite to win the whole thing, only behind Luke Humphries and Luke Littler.

Nijman has been impressive on the Euro Tours, but the Matchplay is a completely different experience, and we’ve seen him struggle with the pressure of the big stage before. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing him at 10/1, even given his performances so far this year.

It’s also worth noting that many of the big hitters, including the two Lukes, haven’t been playing on the Euro Tours so Nijman’s successes do come with a bit of an asterisk.

James Wade is capable of going deep at this tournament; he reached the final last year and the semi-finals the year prior - only the two Lukes were able to beat him during those campaigns, so it’s clearly a competition that Wade enjoys.

Wade finds himself in a nice part of the draw; I don’t agree with the pricing of Nijman as the favourite to come out of this section, and van Veen’s inconsistency means that Wade should feel optimistic about his chances of going deep.

Wade won the Matchplay all the way back in 2007, highlighting his longevity in the game. He’s still probably the only player that can actually challenge the two Lukes on this sort of stage, and crucially he'd avoid Littler until the final.