Only Ollie Watkins (11) has scored more goals in the Premier League for Aston Villa this season than Morgan Rogers (9). He’s bettered his goal tally from last season by one goal, while also improving his general shot output - making him a more reliable player to back to find the target than he was last season.

Rogers had four shots during the week as Villa fell to a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest, seeing one of these attempts find the target. He’s taken 79 shots across his 34 starts in the Premier League this campaign (2.36 per 90), seeing 31 of these efforts find the target (0.93 per 90). 

Rogers also has an impressive record against Tottenham, having scored against the Lilywhites in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides from two shots on target, as Villa came away 2-1 winners over Tottenham in the FA Cup. He also scored in the league meeting between these sides in North London earlier in the season, and has scored against Tottenham in four of his last five games against the relegation-threatened side.

Richarlison came off the bench in Tottenham’s 1-0 win over Wolves last time out, managing two shots - one of which led to Palhinha’s scrappy goal as De Zerbi’s side secured a crucial three points to keep their chances of survival in the Premier League alive.

Dominic Solanke went down injured in that game and is unlikely to feature again this season, leaving Richarlison as Tottenham’s main forward for the run-in. Richarlison has been in a relegation battle before, ensuring Everton’s safety a few seasons ago, so he’s got the perfect experience to lead this Tottenham side to safety following a disastrous campaign in which the Lilywhites have burned through two coaches.

Richarlison has netted nine goals across his 16 starts in the Premier League this season, achieving this tally from 50 shots overall (2.79 per 90), seeing 22 of these attempts find the target (1.23 per 90).

Tottenham have one of the most aggressive midfield set-ups in the Premier League. Without even looking at the underlying numbers, the likes of Gallagher, Bentancur, Palhinha, and Bissouma are all incredibly combative and will get sucked into challenges against the most fouled side in the Premier League over the last two seasons.

Those players also hint at where Tottenham have fallen short in their recruitment over recent seasons, partially explaining why they find themselves in their current predicament. All of those players are better at breaking up play than they are when in possession. They are all pretty good when out of possession, but Tottenham desperately lack a profile that can progress the play through the thirds.

Tielemans has won 33 fouls across his 18 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.88 fouls won per 90. I’d expect this to rise given the aggressive nature of Tottenham’s midfield set-up - Tottenham committed 17 fouls in the most recent head-to-head clash between the sides in the FA Cup, and committed 11 fouls when the sides met in the Premier League earlier on in the campaign.

Tottenham find themselves battling at the bottom of the table to survive in the Premier League, a position that naturally creates a bit of frustration, but even more so when the players don’t believe that they should be in this position.

This entitlement is one of the main reasons why Tottenham find themselves at risk of the drop; many of the players have long been checked out of the club, and this has resulted in Tottenham having a pretty healthy card and foul record in the Premier League.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side have collected 85 yellow cards in the Premier League this season (2.5 per game) - more than any other side in the division. Only Chelsea have picked up more red cards (7) than Tottenham (4) in the Premier League this season, too, so this is clearly a side that is struggling to manage the emotions of a relegation battle.

Tottenham have picked up 2+ cards in each of their last six head-to-head meetings against Aston Villa across all competitions, most recently committing 17 fouls and picking up three yellow cards in an FA Cup defeat at home to Unai Emery’s side.

Tielemans has drawn 2+ fouls in each of his last three Premier League games, and faces up against a Tottenham side that have committed the third most fouls in the Premier League this season (11.9 per game). 

Tielemans came off the bench in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, winning one foul, and will face up against an aggressive trio on paper of Gallagher, Bissouma and Bentancur who combine to commit 3.88 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Across the season as a whole, Tielemans has drawn 33 fouls across his 18 starts in the Premier League (1.88 per 90). I’m confident that we’ll see a slight rise in these numbers here given the combative nature of Tottenham’s midfield, which should be further exaggerated with where they find themselves in the table.

Conor Gallagher has committed a foul in each of his last four Premier League appearances, committing 2+ fouls in one of these games. He’s priced as short as 1.12 to commit a single foul here, so i’m happy to take him for 2+ fouls here against a Villa side that has won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season.

Villa drew 17 fouls from Tottenham in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, with both Archie Gray and Joao Palhinha picking up cautions in that game and combining to commit five fouls - suggesting that the midfield will be an active battleground for foul exchanges again here.

We’re pitting Gallagher up against Tielemans, but he’ll also have to contest duels against Lamar Bogarde who is filling in with Onana and Kamara both expected to miss this clash due to injury. Bogarde is averaging 1.75 fouls won per 90 across his nine starts in the Premier League this season and his impressive mobility may prove an issue for a player in Gallagher who struggles with reigning in his challenges.

Casemiro has picked up more yellow cards than any other Manchester United player this season (8), as well as one red card.

Casemiro has collected two yellow cards across his last five Premier League appearances.

Casemiro is averaging 1.64 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this season.

Casemiro committed two fouls and was shown a yellow card when these sides met earlier in the season.

Only Dominik Szoboszlai (8) has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season for Liverpool than Konate (6).

Konate has been cautioned in two of his last five domestic appearances for Liverpool. 

32 of Liverpool’s 50 yellow cards in the Premier League this season have come away from home (64%).

The referee for this game is Darren England who averages over 4.0 cards per game in the Premier League.

Matty Cash has picked up the most yellow cards of any Aston Villa player in the Premier League this season (8).

Cash has been cautioned in two of his last five Premier League appearances.

Cash has a history with Tottenham, having antagonised the club in a meeting between the sides a few seasons ago - Tottenham players still haven’t forgotten about this.

Cash’s main opponent here is likely to be Mathys Tel (1.70 fouls won per 90).

Conor Gallagher has committed a foul in each of his last four Premier League appearances, committing 2+ fouls in one of these games. He’s priced as short as 1.12 to commit a single foul here, so i’m happy to take him for 2+ fouls here against a Villa side that has won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season.

Villa drew 17 fouls from Tottenham in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, with both Archie Gray and Joao Palhinha picking up cautions in that game and combining to commit five fouls - suggesting that the midfield will be an active battleground for foul exchanges again here.

We’re pitting Gallagher up against Tielemans, but he’ll also have to contest duels against Lamar Bogarde who is filling in with Onana and Kamara both expected to miss this clash due to injury. Bogarde is averaging 1.75 fouls won per 90 across his nine starts in the Premier League this season and his impressive mobility may prove an issue for a player in Gallagher who struggles with reigning in his challenges.