Ollie Watkins has had 40 shots on target across his 37 Premier League appearances this season (1.43 per 90). This record has returned 16 Premier League goals for the 29 year old which is a record only bettered by six players in the Premier League. No Aston Villa player has scored more goals in the Premier League this season than Ollie Watkins. 

Watkins has found the target in each of his last three Premier League appearances, recording a goal and an assist across these fixtures. He had two shots in the initial meeting between the sides back in October and Villa have plenty to fight for with only all three points guaranteeing them a place in the Champions League next season depending on the result between Chelsea and Nottingham Forest which is also taking place on the final day. 

Aston Villa are averaging 4.6 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, they’ve improved on this record since their influx of January signings. Watkins is the most likely player in the Villa squad to find the target and the back of the net, he’s also likely to be on penalties for Unai Emery’s side but Villa have rotated that role between players this season.

In Aston Villa's goalless draw against Manchester United back in October, Morgan Rogers was fouled twice, highlighting his ability to draw challenges from defenders. Villa have been one of the most fouled teams in the Premier League this season, with no side winning more fouls than Unai Emery’s men. In that same match, they forced United into committing 11 fouls, underlining their effectiveness in drawing contact from opponents.

Rogers has been a consistent threat, winning 51 fouls in 36 league appearances this season (1.51 per 90). With Manuel Ugarte likely tasked with marking him this time, after being surprisingly left out of the Europa League final lineup, Rogers could see an even higher foul count. Ugarte has a tendency to dive into tackles, committing 41 fouls in just 29 league games (2.06 per 90), making him vulnerable against a player like Rogers.

Given these numbers, Rogers is well positioned to continue his knack for drawing fouls. Ugarte’s aggressive style, combined with Villa’s ability to provoke defensive mistakes, suggests Rogers could be fouled multiple times once again in this matchup.

Aston Villa head into the final day of the season with Champions League qualification still within reach, and they are surprisingly well priced to secure a crucial victory at Old Trafford. Unai Emery’s side have been in outstanding form, winning eight of their last nine Premier League matches - their only defeat coming against Manchester City. With everything on the line, Villa will approach this game with full belief that three points could seal their place among Europe’s elite next season.

Villa’s recent defensive solidity has been particularly impressive, keeping clean sheets in each of their last three victories over Tottenham, Bournemouth, and Fulham. They now face a Manchester United side in complete disarray, winless in their last eight league games (losing six of these) after prioritising the Europa League final, a gamble that backfired. Following their draining defeat to Tottenham, United have little left to play for, raising serious questions about their motivation and energy levels for this final fixture.

While Villa’s away form has been inconsistent this season, Old Trafford has been far from a fortress for United. Ruben Amorim’s side have managed just six home wins all campaign, their worst return in Premier League history, while losing nine of their 18 matches. Their results at home have been stark, with only three draws, meaning games tend to swing decisively one way or the other. Given United’s vulnerability and Villa’s high stakes, an away win is a compelling proposition.

Ugarte has picked up 11 cards across his 29 Premier League appearances this season, more than any other player in the Manchester United squad with the next most booked player being Harry Maguire (7). Ugarte can be very reckless with his challenges, something that is backed up by his foul record in the Premier League this season (2.06 fouls committed per 90).

Manchester United were shown five yellow cards in the initial meeting between the sides back in October, there is likely to be some frustration and a sour atmosphere at Old Trafford following their Europa League final defeat against Tottenham. This could seep onto the pitch if Aston Villa manage to get control of this game which seems likely given the contrasting form of these two sides heading into this game. 

Ugarte will be up against Morgan Rogers who was fouled twice in the initial meeting between the sides and is averaging 1.51 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season. Aston Villa are among the top sides in the division when it comes to fouls won.

Bruno Fernandes looked devastated at the end of the Europa League final during the week which saw Manchester United miss out to Tottenham which means that there will be no European football at Old Trafford next season. Fernandes has been United’s only shining light this season, registering 17 goal contributions across his 35 Premier League appearances while averaging 0.86 shots on target per 90. 

Bruno Fernandes was unlucky not to find the target in the initial meeting between the sides, striking the crossbar with an excellent free kick in the second half. The game ended in a 0-0 draw but Manchester United still managed to register four shots on target, roughly in line for their average when it comes to shots on target for the season.

Aston Villa have hit their defensive stride at the perfect time, securing three consecutive Premier League clean sheets after struggling for consistency at the back for much of the season. This newfound solidity could prove decisive as they push for Champions League qualification on the final day.

Meanwhile, Manchester United come into this game in dismal form, having lost six of their last eight league matches. Their struggles at Old Trafford have been particularly alarming, with just six wins in 18 home games this campaign—their worst Premier League home record ever. Even more telling is that nine of those matches ended in defeat, highlighting their vulnerability in front of their own fans.

With Villa defensively resurgent and United in disarray, the stage is set for a potentially decisive away performance. United's lack of home fortitude, combined with Villa's timely defensive improvement, makes this a compelling matchup for Emery's side to capitalise on.