Genk vs Kortrijk

The first game after the winter break in Belgium sees fifth-placed Gent taking on eighth-placed Kortrijk. Gent sit just three points outside the top four, which in Belgian football’s unique system, following the end of the season splits from the rest of the division and has a mini-league to decide the final positions. Gent will be keen to start strongly and remain in touch with those currently occupying these spots, and having lost just one of their last six games at the Ghelamco Arena, they will be hoping to keep up this impressive home record.

They have scored in all but one home game this season, and only two of these fixtures have seen the home side score less than twice. However, Gent are undergoing something of a crisis, with a number of key players out, most notably top scorer Tarik Tissoudali (10 goals) who is in action at the African Cup of Nations with Morocco, but also five players who have played in more than 75% of their games this season. Fellow forward Laurent Depoitre is also missing, having played 17 times this season and scored 6 times. Goals will not flow as easily for The Buffalos until their squad returns to near full strength.

Kortrijk meanwhile have seen under 2.5 goals land in eight of their 11 away matches in the First Division this season. Despite the potential for Kortrijk to put the pressure on their understrength opponents, it seems unlikely they will put Gent to the sword. Both teams rank have seen under 2.5 goals land in over half of their last 15 fixtures, something of an outlier in a high-scoring league. Kortrijk have not scored more than twice in any league fixture this season, while they have also not conceded more than two in a single game.

OH Leuven vs Mechelen

OH Leuven welcome Mechelen to Den Dreef on Saturday afternoon. Marc Brys side sit firmly midtable, while Mechelen are in sixth-spot, in the Europa Conference League play-offs. Despite their lofty position, De Kakkers have the fifth-worst defence in the league, conceding 37 goals already, although they have also scored the fifth-most goals, also 37. Leuven also have one of the leakier defences in the league, conceding 34 goals, but their attack is solidly midtable.

Neither team is nursing any serious injury or COVID-related concerns, and thus there are few extra factors to consider with this game. Leuven have seen both teams scoring in eight of 11 fixtures. Nine of these games have seen them score, with their opposition notching at least one goal in nine games also. Mechelen have scored at least once on the road in seven of 10 matches, conceding in eight of 10.

Mechelen have also seen three defeats in their last three games on the road and they will really want to turn this around, whereas Leuven will be conscious of the fact that they are on the verge of becoming trapped in midtable, with no chance of European football next season, and little to play for. In the return fixture, Leuven were beaten 2-0, but they are one of only three teams to restrict Mechelen to 40% or less possession, and the scoreline is not particularly reflective of the flow of the game. The home side will be hoping to be more clinical this time around.

RFC Seraing vs Union Saint-Gilloise

Union Saint-Gilloise’s season has gone under the radar this year but it has been one of the more remarkable stories in European football. Despite being one of Belgian football’s most historically successful sides, winning 11 First Division titles, they had not featured in the top-flight since 1973. After promotion last season, Union now see themselves quite incredibly top of the table by seven points, no mean feat in a competitive league with a classy Club Brugge side who have given top European teams tough games in the Champions League this year.

Seraing are another side unaccustomed to life in the top-flight, having been promoted alongside Union last season. Unfortunately they have not found the First Division to be quite as welcoming, and languish in 17th position, likely safe from automatic relegation simply because Beerschot have been so far off the pace, winning four games less than Seraing. Up against the league leaders and the division’s top scorers, it’s hard to see anything other than a reasonably comfortable Union victory.

Union St-Gilloise have scored twice or more in eight of 10 away games this season, an impressive record for any side. Seraing’s home record is by no means the worst in the league, but they have had a favourable set of fixtures in the first half of the season. Only one of the top four has visited the Stade du Pairay, and it seems inevitable that Union will follow in the footsteps of Anderlecht in securing a comfortable victory.

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Zulte Waregem vs Oostende

An interesting clash between two teams treading water just outside the relegation play-off spot comes on Saturday evening. Both sides have 23 points from 21 games, and both have key players who have scored a large percentage of all their goals this season. These sides have the two worst defences in the division, 45 and 43 goals conceded each, but they have been saved by each having some of the league’s top scorers in their side.

These weak defences will lend themselves to goals. Waregem have, remarkably for a side in 16th position, scored two or more goals in seven of their 11 home games this season, while over 3.5 goals have landed in six of these games, and over 2.5 would’ve been successful in nine. They have also only kept one clean sheet in these 11 matches, with nine games seeing them concede two or more. If they can get their opponents to open up, this has potential to be the game of the weekend in Belgium.

Oostende’s games’ tend to be less free-scoring, but they have still managed to score in seven of the 10 away games they have played this season, while they have conceded in nine of the 10. Oostende will try and keep this game tight, but they will surely be able to exploit the spaces Waregem leave when searching for goals, while a defence as porous as Oostende’s will struggle to keep a clean sheet against their hosts.

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