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Blackburn v Leicester
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Date: Sunday 1st October
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Competition: Championship
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Kick off: 12:00
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
Goals should be on the agenda at Ewood Park as Blackburn welcome the league leaders. Despite Leicester being top of the pile and possessing some outstanding attacking talent, it is actually Blackburn who may provide most of the attacking thrust in this match.
Rovers sit top of the Championship for big chances created, however, unfortunately for Jon Dahl Tomasson, they also sit top for big chances missed. This does demonstrate what type of team Blackburn Rovers have become under the Dane though, an attacking force that builds through the thirds and creates good opportunities. The fact that so many are missed perhaps points to the other major theme of Rovers, a lack of genuine goalscorers, perhaps from a lack of funds to compete with other top Championship clubs.
Budget is not a concern at the King Power Stadium, not in this league anyway. There have been some signs that Leicester are beginning to work the Championship out and that Enzo Maresca is perfecting his approach. Impressive recent victories over Southampton and Norwich would certainly support that theory, a victory at Ewood Park would cement their position as title and promotion favourites.
With both sides favouring unusual tactical approaches, but both favouring control of possession and building from the back, there are plenty of opportunities for clashes. There is also a high likelihood of shots, chances, and goals to consider in the markets.
This preview profiles a Blackburn v Leicester Bet Builder at around 3/1 and a 29/1 alternative.
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Entertainment to continue at Ewood Park
The 5-2 win against Cardiff in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday perfectly encapsulated what has been happening in Blackburn matches this season.
They are the team in the Championship with the highest total xG in their matches, sitting at 28.3 after eight matches, an average of just over 3.5 total. Tomasson has been in the press this week acknowledging that that number is too high but refuting the suggestion that his team is too open or imbalanced, instead that the chances and goals are too often conceded through individual errors that can be cut out.
If this is the case, and Blackburn can control more games, then their impressive passing and movement will see them challenge for the play-offs again this season. Solving the problem of getting goalscorers in the team is likely to be a more difficult one with a lack of budget and a long injury list to contend with.
Rovers’ reliance on youth, both through their own excellent academy, and also their recruitment strategy, means that they have no squad members over the age of 30. Could this mean that there is a lack of leadership, experience, and maturity in the group that prevents them from getting over the line into the Premier League this season? It is certainly something that Tomasson and the club’s hierarchy are aware of.
Blackburn team news
There is a long list of injuries, especially in the forward areas of Blackburn’s squad. Sam Gallagher, Niall Ennis, and Harry Leonard, Rovers’ three main central forwards are all out. Ryan Hedges will be out for months, Tyrhys Dolan has been ill this week, and Arnor Sigurdsson is not yet fully fit, though is likely to start.
The goalkeeper has been confirmed to be Aynsley Pears, albeit he is under increasing pressure to perform after some ropey recent displays. Callum Brittain looks likely to continue at right-back, though Joe Rankin-Costello completed his comeback from injury with a start in midweek.
Harry Pickering, Dom Hyam, and Hayden Carter are likely to continue in an unchanged back four. Adam Wharton should start alongside Lewis Travis in midfield, with Andrew Moran, Sammie Szmodics, and Arnor Sigurdsson ahead of them.
Semir Telalovic played the forward role in midweek, but is still not up to speed having signed on deadline day. If the German doesn’t start then Szmodics or Dolan could play in a false 9 role, possibly with Jake Garrett coming into the midfield.
Maresca’s Leicester beginning to click into gear
Leicester’s plethora of attacking players are starting to make their mark on the season. One of the least heralded, youngster Kasey McAteer, has been leading the charge, scoring again in midweek, but it is the sheer number of options that is almost the biggest threat in itself.
The fact that Maresca could start with Jamie Vardy, Stephy Mavididi, and McAteer, then as the match progresses, turn to Kelechi Iheanacho, Patson Daka, Tom Cannon, Yunus Akgun, Wanya Marcal-Madivadua, and Issahaku Fatawu is ridiculous depth.
All this talent is backed up by the highly influential Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Wilfried Ndidi, and Harry Winks. Winks has become the fulcrum for the side, and the former England man has revelled in the role. This has allowed Ndidi to roam and support attacks, which has unlocked a whole new side to his game that has been a real threat against Championship sides. His attacking markets are ones to continue to watch.
Only one team has ever had more than the amount of points Leicester, and Ipswich, have picked up at this stage of the season, and that was Veljko Paunovic’s Reading. That team faded badly, Leicester will not, but can they retain this level of consistency of results?
Leicester team news
Leicester will set up in a 4-3-3, which switches to a 3-2-5 in possession, with Mads Hermansen in goal.
The back four will be Ricardo Pereira, Wout Faes, Jannik Vestergaard, and James Justin, this is because Callum Doyle has been ruled out for a couple of months. The midfield will probably be the one discussed above with Winks, Ndidi, and Dewsbury-Hall being fit to play.
McAteer and Mavididi will probably support Jamie Vardy in attack, though any of the plethora of attackers in the squad could fill in.
Blackburn v Leicester Cheat Sheet
Here it is. The Blackburn v Leicester Cheat Sheet. All the previously mentioned stats can be found on the Cheat Sheet, as well as many more. From referee team corners to player foul stats, everything you could want to help pick out your bets is included.
The two levels of bet builder below have also been carefully selected from the Cheat Sheet. They have been chosen from a combination of player form, historical averages, and the perceived value of the selection.
For more extensive bet builder info, make sure to head over to our Bet Builder Stats page, where we have Opta-powered statistical breakdowns of major leagues across the UK and Europe, including the Blackburn v Leicester game.
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ABC’s 3/1 Blackburn v Leicester bet builder
✅ Leicester to win
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Odds: 1.91
Leicester are the better side of the two, data, personnel, and defensive record would suggest this, and, on current evidence, the Foxes have so far been a good away side.
They carry pace on the break, experience making the right runs, and have plenty of facilitators to play the right pass.
Maresca knows that there are many tactics and plans that he can use throughout the match to adapt to the situation on the pitch, but Plan A of building through the thirds, creating wide overloads and therefore making central space, is a very dangerous one to begin with.
Blackburn will struggle to contain them on current form.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Lewis Travis to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 1.50
The tactics discussed above will be a nightmare for Rovers’ midfield two.
Defending against a skillful Dewsbury-Hall and a powerful, marauding Ndidi is going to lead to desperate tactics at some stage and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both of Blackburn’s central midfielders in the referee’s bad books.
Travis is a consistent source of fouls, a very big tactical fouler, and this looks like a safe addition to the bet builder.
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🚀 Wilfried Ndidi to have 1+ shots
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Odds: 1.40
The reasons for this bet have been slightly covered above, but Ndidi is a much greater attacking threat in the Championship.
He is averaging 2.15 shots per 90 so far in the Championship, so this is a good value price for him to let fly once.
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ABC’s 29/1 Blackburn v Leicester bet builder
👑 Leicester (-1 handicap)
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Odds: 3.50
Leicester covered this handicap at Southampton and Norwich recently.
Blackburn have conceded plenty of goals and plenty of chances, if they are behind then they will chase the game, opening up the possibility of this copping for Leicester.
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🟨 Lewis Travis to be shown a card
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Odds: 2.50
Travis is certainly no stranger to a yellow card and has conceded the most fouls for Blackburn this season.
The referee is averaging over 3.5 yellow cards per match as well, so is not averse to dishing them out.
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🚀 Wilfried Ndidi to have 2+ shots
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Odds: 3.20
This has happened in five of eight Championship matches already, and if the game is as open as the data suggests, this is a great price.
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