Brentford suffered their heaviest Premier League defeat in their last match against Newcastle, however they will be buoyed by the fact that they are yet to lose back-to-back Premier League matches. Despite some suggestions that second season syndrome could be their downfall, Brentford have continued to outperform teams spending far more money than them. Ivan Toney has pushed himself into contention for a spot in Gareth Southgate’s World Cup squad with 6 goals and 2 assists in the league so far this season. Brentford do have a somewhat favourable run of games before the World Cup, they will play Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Aston Villa but also will face Chelsea and Manchester City away.
A win here then will set up Brighton for a good run going into these final 5 matches before the World Cup. New Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi is still searching for his first win as Brighton manager however a good 3-3 draw against Liverpool and a very tight 1-0 loss to Spurs will give him hope of better results to come. Leandro Trossard’s form for Brighton has seen him score 5 goals in the league this season and these goals have helped the team to a very good current league position. If Brighton win tonight, they will go 4th. While all the other teams around them would have a game in hand, this shows quite how high up Brighton are punching this season.
Brentford v Brighton Bet Builder Tips
Leandro Trossard to have 1+ Shot on Target
With the form Trossard is in it seems inevitable that he will cause problems for that Brentford defence in this match. He has averaged 1.08 shots on target per 90 so far this season and has averaged 2.56 shots per 90. His link up play with Welbeck will be key for Brighton in this match. Welbeck was brilliant in Brighton’s last match, he dropped deep really well to bring in Trossard and Trossard then had room to run at the opposition defence. Trossard plays in a role Brentford have struggled against, he will move wide and occupy central areas throughout the match. This constant movement means he can often find pockets of space behind opposition midfielders. De Zerbi makes Brighton play out the back to encourage an opposition press, leaving space for opposition teams to play the ball into. Against Liverpool, Liverpool pressed up and Brighton found those spaces. Against Spurs, Spurs dropped off and Brighton struggled to find that space as easily. Brentford like to press up and this plays into Brighton’s hands. Brentford will need to be very careful of when they press up or Trossard will be allowed the room he had when he scored that hat-trick at Anfield.
Even if Brentford are more conservative with their pressing, Brighton will still have opportunities to create chances for Trossard, so I expect him to have a shot on target in this match.
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Prediction: Leandro Trossard to have 1+ Shot on Target
Danny Welbeck to have 3+ Shots
Danny Welbeck has been rejuvenated under de Zerbi, he has had 5 shots in total over their last 2 matches, while this is not loads, when you consider the quality of opposition Brighton have played against, these numbers are impressive. He is already a much more significant part of Brighton’s attack under Zerbi, for context, he had only had 3 shots over his last 5 matches before De Zerbi took over. Welbeck will be a key player yet again here. Brentford allow opposition strikers plenty of shots, in their last match Callum Wilson had 3 shots, against Arsenal Jesus had 4 shots and even Joe Gelhardt of Leeds managed 4 shots against them. With the increase in Welbeck’s shots per match since De Zerbi took over as manager and the amount of shots Brentford allow opposition strikers to have, it is logical to suggest that Welbeck will manage at least 3 shots in this match.
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Prediction: Danny Welbeck to have 3+ Shots
Bryan Mbuemo to have 1+ Shots on Target
As already mentioned, De Zerbi’s philosophy centres around drawing an opposition press to create spaces for attacking. While this is very good when it works, it is a very risky strategy. Liverpool and Spurs were both able to capitalise on this style of play with interceptions from poor passes out from the back by Brighton players. When this goes wrong quick inter-play created chances for both Liverpool and Spurs. Bryan Mbeumo has pressing as one of his strongest assets. He is capable of pressing throughout a match and this means he can be dangerous for Brentford in this game. Mbeumo makes 0.84 interceptions per 90, this puts him in the top 5% of any attacker in the top 5 European Leagues. When he does intercept, he is one of the best dribblers in the league and will be able to create his own chances. Alternatively, if he presses up and a different player wins the ball, he will be in a great position to receive the ball in an attacking and shooting position.
As a forward that is so good defensively, Mbeumo’s defensive ability will be vital for Brentford to create chances in this match, so I am backing him to have a shot on target here.
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Prediction: Bryan Mbuemo to have 1+ Shots on Target
Adam Webster to have 1+ Shot
Brentford have conceded a league high 6 headed goals so far this season and while Brighton are one of the few teams yet to score one this season, they will still see this as an opportunity. Only 3 teams have conceded more shots from set pieces than Brentford and no team has conceded more goals from set pieces. The key man for Brighton from set pieces will be Adam Webster. Webster has averaged 0.87 shots per 90 this season, although he is yet to find the target with any of these shots. Adam Webster has won a huge 80.6% of aerial duels so far this season and this is the perfect skillset to give Brentford problems from set pieces.
I think Webster is very good value for a shot considering he has had 7 shots in 8 matches, so I am backing him to have at least 1 shot in this match.
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Prediction: Adam Webster to have 1+ Shot
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How to watch Brentford v Brighton in the Premier League?
📅 When is Brentford v Brighton? / Friday, 14th October 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is Brentford v Brighton? / Brentford Community Stadium (London)
📺 What TV channel is Brentford v Brighton on? / Sky Sports Main Event & Sky Sports PL
🟨 …And who is the referee for Brentford v Brighton? / M. Salisbury 🏴
