Manchester City and Crystal Palace face off in the 153rd edition of the FA Cup final at Wembley. Palace are playing in their third final in the competition, losing the previous two against Manchester United on both occasions.

Manchester City have a more positive experience of finals in the competition, having lifted this trophy seven times. They’ll be hoping to end what has been a disappointing season with silverware. 

This tactical preview will break down the systems and shape of the two sides, as well as identifying betting angles from their previous meetings.

🧠 Shape and System

🦅 Crystal Palace

• Oliver Glasner has been using the 3-4-3 shape all season. Palace have the perfect personnel for this system, especially in the back three and front three which are incredibly effective for the Eagles. 

• There isn’t much change from their shape when in or out of possession. Palace like to defend with their front three quite high, it’s not really an active press but it stops Palace from falling into the trap of sitting in a low block.

• The midfield two could end up being an area of the pitch that Pep Guardiola looks to target. Wharton and Hughes have been strong for Palace with Kamada also improving as the season has gone on but City could outnumber Palace in central areas with Pep playing as many as five midfielders in recent matches.

🔵 Man City

• Pep Guardiola’s shape is a little more complex than Glasner’s. He’s got a real decision to make here with a crucial game against Bournemouth in the race for the Champions League to come after this final which could see the City boss prioritising the league campaign over this cup competition.

• Guardiola’s side lined up in what was basically a 4-2-4 shape in their semi final against Nottingham Forest, this is unlikely to be the shape that Guardiola goes with here as that aggressive structure was to unlock the Forest low block which they managed to do after just two minutes.

• Guardiola’s flexibility in tactical setup was shown against Southampton where he deployed five midfielders in what may have been a test for the final in trying to outnumber Palace in central areas. This test wasn’t very successful as Southampton ended up holding City to a 0-0 draw. 

• The most common shape for City when they have had the ball this season is a 3-2-4-1.

📊 Previous Meetings

Man City 5-2 Crystal Palace (April 2025)

• This is the more relevant game to infer from, seeing as it was only a month ago. City fell 2-0 behind in this game and could have been 3-0 down if Eze’s third goal was not ruled out for offside.

• Palace got their joy down the right-hand side with the pairing of Ismailia Sarr and Daniel Munoz causing real problems down Manchester City’s left-hand side, where Nico O’Reilly has been playing. It’s the weakest side of the Manchester City defence, and Glasner was effective in exposing this early on.

• Manchester City settled quickly after the disallowed goal and had the game level by halftime before going on to unlock the Palace defence on three other occasions. It should be noted that Palace were without their captain and their best defender, Marc Guehi, and the context of a final at Wembley makes a one-sided result like this quite unlikely.

Key Stats from the Fixture:

• 26 total fouls committed (Man City - 10; Crystal Palace - 16)

• 12 total shots on target (Man City - 9; Crystal Palace - 3)

Crystal Palace 2-2 Man City (December 2024)

• Palace held Manchester City to a draw but more impressively, only allowed Guardiola’s side one big chance in the game and matched them for shots (12-12) despite only having 32% of the ball.

• City played with their 3-2-4-1 shape referenced above but struggled to get Haaland into the game. Palace were happy to sit in their shape and take their opportunities on the break but it should be noted that this version of Palace was much more passive to the one we see today.

Key Stats from the Fixture:

• 14 total corners (Crystal Palace - 6; Man City - 8)

• 5 total offsides (Crystal Palace - 3; Man City - 2)

🗒️ Potential Betting Angles

Both Teams to Score

BTTS has landed in both head-to-head meetings between these sides this season. Palace have shown that they can identify and successfully exploit the weaknesses that Manchester City have been struggling with, as the three goals they’ve already scored against the Cityzens this season demonstrates.

Both sides enter the final in good form, Palace have avoided defeat in their last five matches, while City enter the final having not lost in 10 games. This suggests that there won’t be too much to split the sides, and we should get quite an evenly pitched final despite the league position disparity between the two sides.

Daniel Munoz and Ismaila Sarr Shots

This is a side of the pitch that could be really problematic for City. Palace tend to look down this side when looking to attack quickly with Munoz being more forward thinking than Tyrick Mitchell on the opposite side. 

Munoz has provided 12 goal contributions across his 43 appearances in all competitions this season which shows his attacking nature as a wingback. He caused City all kinds of problems in the first half of the recent head to head meeting and can be tracked for efforts on goal here. Munoz is averaging 1.06 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season. 

Sarr can also be watched for shots and shots on target, the winger picked up man of the match for his performance against Aston Villa in the semi final which saw Sarr score two goals and provide an assist in Crystal Palace’s 3-0 win over Unai Emery’s side. Sarr is averaging 1.90 shots per 90 this season as well as 0.88 shots on target per 90.

Midfield Fouls

If Pep Guardiola does try to outnumber the Eagles in central areas, then the duo that line up in the middle of the park for both sides should be watched for fouls. 

City are likely to control the game, they had the majority of the ball in both meetings between the sides and really frustrated Palace in the game at the Etihad - shown by the 16 fouls Oliver Glasner’s side committed which is 12 more than they committed at the game in Selhurst Park indicating that Guardiola’s shift in strategy was effective.

Both Kamada and Wharton committed a foul in the 5-2 defeat in Manchester with Will Hughes also coming on to commit a foul. This scenario is likely to affect Manchester City as well, Palace will pick their moments and look to attack swiftly when they do get the ball. This should lead to the City midfield also having to commit tactical fouls to stop the likes of Eze, Sarr and Mateta getting on the ball in dangerous forward areas.

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