Recently we have seen low-block and low-possession tactics work against Leicester by Millwall and Plymouth. Leicester had 70% or more possession in each game but failed to score. While both matches were away from home, it is more than likely that West Brom will copy some elements of those tactics.

The Baggies have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. They have conceded the third-least goals in the Championship, alongside the fifth-best expected goals against (xGA) record and the second-highest number of clean sheets.

Leicester continue to have good attacking data, though they have dropped off from their peak expected goals for (xGF) per match totals. They are a narrow second to Leeds in xGF with 76 xGF from 42 matches, now short of 2 xGF per match, when they were over this mark during the season.

The Foxes have won seven of their last ten at the King Power Stadium, but West Brom are unbeaten in seven away Championship matches as well, albeit they have won only two of those seven.

The way that this match should pan out is that Leicester will have more possession, more shots, and probably a greater xGF, they are running at +1.2 xGF per match better than their opponents at home over the last ten matches. It is just a case of whether Leicester can take those chances, at the moment, and at the odds that they are still being priced up, it is hard to be confident of that.

Only Brandon Thomas-Asante averages over one shot on target per 90 for West Brom this season. The forward is unavailable for this match following his red card last time out, so there are slim pickings for the visitors in this market.

With Leicester’s depth in the forward area, it should pay to pick players who are most likely to start and play the vast majority of the match.

Stephy Mavididi and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall were the Foxes’ most frequent shooters in the Plymouth match, and both landed a shot on target as well.

Mavididi has played the full match in all of his last eight, bar one minute v Norwich, and he plays on the opposite wing to his stronger foot, which means he can dip in and shoot on any occasion.

Dewsbury-Hall is the leader of the attacking unit, coming with runs from deep and carrying the ball. He had four shots last week, to add to his 6 from the previous 3 matches. The midfielder is the one trying to provide the spark to get Leicester back into the Premier League and is a decent price to get another one on target here.

West Brom’s tactical style and discipline makes them a difficult team to assess when looking for players to foul. Almost all of their players average less than a foul per 90, which, when the odds being offered are generally odds-on, feels difficult to accept in terms of likelihood and value.

For this section, we will be sticking to Leicester suggestions, where the options are plentiful.

Abdul Fatawu has played a lot of minutes of late as a result of his improvement in contribution going forwards, but he also supplies some good, hard running in defence, which has produced a stream of fouls committed. He committed four in his last match.

In West Brom’s 4-3-3 formation, the wide forwards are key threats, especially in transition. Leicester’s full backs can both invert, which could potentially leave their flanks light on defensive cover in these situations and leave them chasing, and, potentially, fouling.

Callum Doyle is averaging well over a foul per 90 and he is a value option in this market.

On the other side, Ricardo Pereira would’ve been a winner in this market against Plymouth last Friday, as he made it ten matches in 12 that he has fouled in.