Monaco v Troyes

Monaco and Troyes is a game that is liable to produce goals in Ligue 1. It’s been a disappointing start to the campaign for Monaco, who have won only one of their six fixtures to date this season, racking up four 1-1 draws along the way, but Sunday’s point against PSG was a highly impressive display and one that might mark a turning point in their campaign.

Certainly, renewed questions will be asked of head coach Philippe Clement if he cannot get a talented attacking unit to threaten a Troyes side that has been miserable defensively this season. ESTAC have conceded 11 goals in their four league fixtures to date and until a 3-1 win over Angers on Sunday had conceded at least three times in each game.

Troyes, though, have the capacity to hurt Monaco. They have looked increasingly strong going forward this season and the addition of Rony Lopes from Sevilla made an instant impact at the weekend as he gained an assist. Similarly, new signing from Metz Papa Ndiaga Yade created a goal off the bench, while former PSG youngster Wilson Odobert has made a huge impression in his two outings. For all Troyes are weak at the back, there’s plenty to get excited about going the other way.

Equally, there is a history of this fixture being a high-scoring affair. Each of the last five games between these clubs has yielded over 2.5 goals, and Monaco have won each one. The hosts’ price in this game is too short to back them with confidence, but another high-scoring affair looks on the cards nevertheless.

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Montpellier v Ajaccio

It’s clear where the value in this game is: goals. Having backed Montpellier to be involved in high-scoring games every round so far, there is little reason to stop for this midweek game, particularly with the hosts coming into the round following a smashing 7-0 win over Brest at the weekend. Their matches this season are averaging more than 5 goals per game and only PSG have found the net more in Ligue 1 this season.

Ajaccio, meanwhile, won promotion off the back of their reputation as being a stingy defensive team. They conceded only 19 goals in Ligue 2 last term but have found that form hard to translate in Ligue 1. Indeed, they have already conceded seven times in four matches, earning just a single point to leave them propping up the league standings. Quite simply, they have not been good enough to play in this style again.

This has meant that the Corsicans’ matches have been higher-scoring affairs than they might have wished. Indeed, three of their four matches have produced more than 2.5 goals, while the other was a 0-0 home draw. They will find it harder to keep clean sheets on the road, though.

Montpellier, meanwhile, will approach the midweek game in high spirits after their weekend victory, which was doubly vital as it allowed the coach to make some early changes to preserve the team’s energy during a run of three matches in a week. Given Ajaccio played almost 48 hours earlier, this is precious.

The absence of Montpellier playmaker Teji Savanier because of suspension knocks this down from a five-star bet to a four-star one, but there is value here.

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Lens v Lorient

Lens have made their customary strong start to the season, picking up 10 points from their opening four matches. Indeed, after an impressive 2-1 win over Rennes on Saturday, they spent close to 24 hours at the top of the table. Although PSG and Marseille subsequently leapfrogged them, this is only on goal difference.

Franck Haise’s side will be confident of overcoming Lorient at home on Wednesday. They have enjoyed nearly 24 hours rest more than their opponents prior to this encounter and will be feeling confident after wins over Monaco and Rennes – opponents who finished in the top four last season.

Lens do have some lingering doubts over the future of Seko Fofana heading into this match, but otherwise they should have everyone fit and focused on the task at hand. Playing back-to-back home matches amidst such a quick turnaround is also a bonus.

Lorient have also made a strong start to the campaign but have had a considerably easier fixture list than their hosts. The Bretons are notoriously poor travellers, though they have started well away from home, beating Rennes and earning a 2-2 draw with Toulouse. In that match with Rennes, though, they rode their luck and had an xG almost 1 smaller than their hosts – they are unlikely to get so lucky again. 

While the odds of Lens are a little short on the match result market, throw in over 1.5 goals to effectively take out the possibility of a 1-0 home success. Lens rarely win by such a margin; only two of their last 29 Ligue 1 victories have been by that scoreline.

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Toulouse v PSG

Toulouse have impressed since earning their spot back in Ligue 1 but on Wednesday face a challenge that they are not accustomed to. For over two years now, Toulouse have grown used to dominating games and being able to control them with their technical abilities. That will not happen when they host the champions in the Pink City in midweek. It will require them to show a different face.

TFC have picked up five points this season already but aside from out-of-sorts Nice, against who they drew 1-1, have had a relatively kind fixture list. On Sunday, they suffered their first defeat of the campaign 3-1 in Nantes. 

Philippe Montanier’s side certainly have a soft underbelly. That has been highlighted by the fact they have conceded five times in two matches against Lorient and Nantes, sides that have nothing like the arsenal of attacking weapons that PSG boast.

Indeed, PSG have already scored 18 times this season, while their net xG in three of their four fixtures is greater than two – meaning that on average, they would expect to win these games by at least two goals. They have also been formidable away from home so far this term, overcoming Clermont 5-0 and Lille 7-1. Both of these opponents are teams that try to impose their technical abilities onto games – much like Toulouse do.

It’s certainly true that the Parisians could rotate their side because of their busy September, but they still possess formidable strength in depth on their bench so it would be a significant shock if they did not win this match with some to spare.

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