Despite starting the season slowly, Liverpool are growing in confidence and were comfortable winning at Villa Park on boxing day, winning 3.19-1.70 on expected goals. At home, they have won three of their last four, including a 1-0 win over Man City – a game where they won 2.44-1.14 on expected goals. The reds have racked up at least two expected goals for in their last five, and whilst Darwin Nunez is yet to hit the heights that he had at Benfica, if you keep giving him chances he will score. The striker has had 0.76 expected goals per 90 in the league this season and continues to get into good positions, even if he has only scored five goals. When these two faced off here in February, Liverpool were very comfortable in a 2-0 victory where they managed 22 shots on goal, whilst Leicester had just one on target and 35% possession.

Leicester have won their last four on the road in all competition without conceding a goal but here they’re facing a completely different side. Those wins have come against Wolves, Everton, West Ham and MK Dons and Liverpool, especially at home, is a much sterner test. Leicester lost their first five away from home this season, conceding 15 to Arsenal, Brighton and Spurs and Liverpool will be hoping for a similar result here despite missing some key attacking talent. The foxes have conceded plenty of chances to their opponents in recent games even if they have started keeping more clean sheets. In their last fifteen games in the league, their opponents have had at least one expected goal in thirteen of them, including Newcastle’s 2.13 xGF last time out.

Leicester have been very fortunate not to concede in the last three in the league on the road as they conceded 1.16 xG at West Ham, 1.51 xG at Goodison Park and a massive 2.01 xG in Birmingham when they lost to Wolves. They’ll need to improve massively if they want any hope of getting a result here.

Mohamed Salah has been overshadowed by Erling Haaland so far this season and despite not reaching the heights that he himself has hit in his first few years at Anfield, he has still put together good numbers – with seven goals and four assists. The Egyptian was given the World Cup off after his nation’s failure to qualify and has hit three goal contributions in the two games since the break.

In his last eight for club and country in all competitions he has seven goals and three assists, with this selection landing eight times. In the past two seasons, he has not started both of the home games against Leicester due to injury, but has managed one at the King Power Stadium. He also scored three against the Foxes in his first season on Merseyside. The Egyptian is also on penalties for the Reds.

Harvey Barnes is growing in confidence and has become an integral part of this Leicester City attack this season alongside James Maddison. The winger has averaged 2.49 shots per game, scoring six goals from 32 shots, and has averaged at least two per ninety in each of his six seasons in professional football. This selection landed in each of the last four before games before the break, including against Manchester City and the Englishman has started getting himself into more promising positions. This selection has landed against each of the Big Six teams that he has played this season – managing four at Chelsea and three at Spurs and hitting two at home to Manchester City and Manchester United. With James Maddison out, the Foxes will be even more reliant on Harvey Barnes to get forward and attack Trent Alexander-Arnold if they hope to score here.

Mohamed Salah has committed the same number of fouls this season (12) as he did all of last season in just 15 games. This may be in part due to frustration at both the results that his team are getting on the pitch and his performances which have dipped at times this season. He has committed at least one in each of his last four in the league, including two on the weekend at Aston Villa. At home in the league so far this season, he has been penalised eight times and this selection has landed six times, including in three of the last four in the league. Leicester are likely to sit back and try and counter, and this is ideal for this bet, and it is likely that Salah may be caught out of position when running towards his own goal. A price above evens is generous considering he has committed the second most fouls of any Liverpool player in the league this season, only behind Fabinho.