Liverpool v Leicester City Cheat Sheet
Liverpool v Leicester
Friday night sees Leicester travel to Anfield to face Liverpool in the middle of a busy Christmas schedule in the Premier League. Liverpool come into this one on the back of a comfortable 3-1 victory at Villa Park after a slow start to the season has left them chasing the pack in the race for the top four. After just one point in their first seven games, a small Leicester resurgence in October and November has left them in 13th but they returned with the worst possible start – being 3-0 down at home to Newcastle by half time on Monday.
Liverpool started the season winless in three, picking up just one point and with just two wins in their first eight before two home wins against Manchester City and West Ham reignited confidence within the fans again. However, this was sharply shut down with back to back defeats to Nottingham Forest and Leeds, although three wins on the bounce since will show give Liverpool fans a new sense of optimism.
They will be able to take confidence from the fact that they have won five of their eight home games, only losing one and scoring 21 – plenty of which were in a 9-0 drubbing of Bournemouth. Teams like Arsenal, Newcastle and Manchester United have got a lot better this season for differing reasons, so the race for the top four has become much harder and Liverpool have left themselves a challenge as they hope to compete at the top end of the table. They have a lengthy injury list however and will be without Arthur, Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino as well as James Milner and Curtis Jones here. However, they have been able to welcome back Ibrahima Konate to training after international duty and he could come straight into the starting lineup here.
Leicester fans were concerned about their chances of survival at the start of the season after not signing many players in the summer transfer window and then only picking up one point in seven games but they have since been on a resurgence, led by Danny Ward in goal who seems to have found a new level of confidence. However, he himself conceded five goals in just 94 minutes in the World Cup with Wales and then backed this up by conceding three in the first half to Newcastle. They will be hoping that he does not revert to his form at the start of the season and that he can build on his four clean sheets in a row away from the King Power Stadium.
Despite being in 13th, the Foxes will still have an eye over their shoulder as they stand just four points above the drop zone and will need to show plenty of improvement from their performance against Newcastle here. Brendan Rodgers will have been gutted to lose Dennis Praet just 17 minutes into that game against Newcastle having only returned recently and he will be out here. Ryan Bertrand, Ricardo Pereira, James Justin, Jonny Evans and James Maddison are all going to miss out here too.
Despite starting the season slowly, Liverpool are growing in confidence and were comfortable winning at Villa Park on boxing day, winning 3.19-1.70 on expected goals. At home, they have won three of their last four, including a 1-0 win over Man City – a game where they won 2.44-1.14 on expected goals. The reds have racked up at least two expected goals for in their last five, and whilst Darwin Nunez is yet to hit the heights that he had at Benfica, if you keep giving him chances he will score. The striker has had 0.76 expected goals per 90 in the league this season and continues to get into good positions, even if he has only scored five goals. When these two faced off here in February, Liverpool were very comfortable in a 2-0 victory where they managed 22 shots on goal, whilst Leicester had just one on target and 35% possession.
Leicester have won their last four on the road in all competition without conceding a goal but here they’re facing a completely different side. Those wins have come against Wolves, Everton, West Ham and MK Dons and Liverpool, especially at home, is a much sterner test. Leicester lost their first five away from home this season, conceding 15 to Arsenal, Brighton and Spurs and Liverpool will be hoping for a similar result here despite missing some key attacking talent. The foxes have conceded plenty of chances to their opponents in recent games even if they have started keeping more clean sheets. In their last fifteen games in the league, their opponents have had at least one expected goal in thirteen of them, including Newcastle’s 2.13 xGF last time out.
Leicester have been very fortunate not to concede in the last three in the league on the road as they conceded 1.16 xG at West Ham, 1.51 xG at Goodison Park and a massive 2.01 xG in Birmingham when they lost to Wolves. They’ll need to improve massively if they want any hope of getting a result here.
Mohamed Salah has been overshadowed by Erling Haaland so far this season and despite not reaching the heights that he himself has hit in his first few years at Anfield, he has still put together good numbers – with seven goals and four assists. The Egyptian was given the World Cup off after his nation’s failure to qualify and has hit three goal contributions in the two games since the break.
In his last eight for club and country in all competitions he has seven goals and three assists, with this selection landing eight times. In the past two seasons, he has not started both of the home games against Leicester due to injury, but has managed one at the King Power Stadium. He also scored three against the Foxes in his first season on Merseyside. The Egyptian is also on penalties for the Reds.
Harvey Barnes is growing in confidence and has become an integral part of this Leicester City attack this season alongside James Maddison. The winger has averaged 2.49 shots per game, scoring six goals from 32 shots, and has averaged at least two per ninety in each of his six seasons in professional football. This selection landed in each of the last four before games before the break, including against Manchester City and the Englishman has started getting himself into more promising positions. This selection has landed against each of the Big Six teams that he has played this season – managing four at Chelsea and three at Spurs and hitting two at home to Manchester City and Manchester United. With James Maddison out, the Foxes will be even more reliant on Harvey Barnes to get forward and attack Trent Alexander-Arnold if they hope to score here.
Mohamed Salah has committed the same number of fouls this season (12) as he did all of last season in just 15 games. This may be in part due to frustration at both the results that his team are getting on the pitch and his performances which have dipped at times this season. He has committed at least one in each of his last four in the league, including two on the weekend at Aston Villa. At home in the league so far this season, he has been penalised eight times and this selection has landed six times, including in three of the last four in the league. Leicester are likely to sit back and try and counter, and this is ideal for this bet, and it is likely that Salah may be caught out of position when running towards his own goal. A price above evens is generous considering he has committed the second most fouls of any Liverpool player in the league this season, only behind Fabinho.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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