The FA Cup, The League Cup, and international breaks are a love them or hate them distraction to regular league football for fans. I fall into the first category without a shadow of a doubt, there is a refreshing quality about seeing teams that might only meet once every 5 years go head-to-head instead of a scheduled home and away fixture in the league. The occasion, playing styles and the lack of direct exposure to the other team create huge unpredictability when creating bet builders, even for sides meeting from divisions apart. Commentators love to harp on about the “magic of the cup”, where we’ve seen plenty of David vs Goliath moments in recent years and I am inclined to agree with this sentiment. Although maybe related to my agreement is my love for the infamous Marmite.
Looking to create some magic on Sunday are Nottingham Forest who play host to Arsenal at the City Ground. The last time these 2 sides met here was in 2018 in the same competition. Forest managed to put 4 goals past Arsenal compared to just 2 in an infamous victory that Arsenal fans will no doubt forget heading into this tie. Danny Welbeck and Per Mertesacker were on the scoresheet for Arsenal 4 years ago, they harp back to an Arsenal squad that has been largely replaced by Mikel Arteta highlighting that this Sunday’s match could be very different. In fact, the following game after the Forest victory and the most recent meeting, saw Arsenal dish out a 5-0 thrashing at the Emirates.
Arsenal are facing a few notable omissions from their squad due to AFCON. Aubameyang, Partey, Pepe, and Elneny will be unavailable for this game which could mean a chance for young Charlie Patino to start following his debut goal against Sunderland the month before. This is a competition that Arteta takes seriously having won the 2020 edition and represents the club with the highest number of FA Cup wins (15), so I’m expecting a strong squad to line up. Forest also have a few injury concerns which will likely force veteran defender Steve Cook into the line-up, however top scorer Lewis Grabban will likely be able to feature so they should be able to pose a solid threat to the Arsenal defence. I’ve selected three tips for Sunday’s final game and a Cheat Sheet to help you in your own selection, good luck!
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Bet Builder Tips
Over 1.5 Goals
Arsenal’s goals have been more evenly dispersed this season than previous years that saw them relying on their Gabon striker Aubameyang. Topping their scoring charts is the young English midfielder Emile Smith Rowe with 9 goals followed by Saka with 7. Their strikers Lacazette and Aubameyang follow closely behind, but this is indicative of a shift in the spread of Arsenal goals. Coming into Sunday’s match without Aubameyang will be less of a problem in recent years and considering Nketiah’s impressive return of 5 goals in 6 games there is an adequate replacement in the squad.
Forest have a runaway top scorer in Lewis Grabban with 10 goals followed by Brennan Johnson with 5. Both these two will likely play on Sunday and have been a key part of their surge up the table following on from Steve Cooper’s appointment in late September. Their shocking start to the Championship season seems like a distant memory and it Cooper has pushed Forest into real playoff contention. Before they suffered back-to-back defeats at the end of 2021, they were on an unbeaten streak of 9 games which has placed them at a respectable 9th position in the league.
The reason I have selected this pick is that both teams will have players capable of scoring goals on Sunday in the line-up and the stats show that both teams are likely to see over 1.5 goals at either end. Forest have the highest instance of over 1.5 goals in the Championship, with 21 of 25 games seeing over 1.5 goals (84%). Similarly, Arsenal have seen 16 of their 20 games this season feature 2 or more goals (80%). The last 3 fixtures between these 2 teams have seen 15 goals which equals an incredible 5 goal per game average! I think these two historic teams will deliver a similar goal fest on Sunday and this selection is available for odds of 1.22 on Paddy Power.
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Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals
Steve Cook to Be Carded
As mentioned earlier, Steve Cook will likely feature in Sunday’s clash against Arsenal due to injury problems at the back for Forest. Cook had only managed 3 league appearances this season at his ex-club Bournemouth before jumping ship in January. For long stretches this and last season he was not included in the Bournemouth matchday squad and in his meagre 3 appearances he managed to find himself in the referee’s book once. His long spell at his old club saw him recognised for his gung-ho defending style which is synonymous for one of the most obvious handballs ever seen vs Norwich in January 2020. In his defence, it was a great save, but at 30 years old he seems way past his best and I think he will be rusty when called upon by his manager.
In 399 professional games he’s managed 55 yellow cards and 2 red cards which is a reasonable amount for a tough-tackling centre back. However, he will be up against a mobile Arsenal attack that will see him placed on the back foot throughout the game. Saka (2.67), Lacazette (1.88), Smith Rowe (1.19), and Martinelli (1.15), consistently draw fouls and as mentioned previously they all possess a similar threat in front of goal. Cook will be having to protect his goalkeeper from Arsenal’s young attack while his fullbacks will be dragged wide by either Tierney or Tavares and Tomiyasu, leaving him exposed. The referee in charge on Sunday is C. Pawson, who has averaged 3.83 yellows per game this season in the Premier League. I would expect most of the cards to go Forest’s way as they look to put on a show in front of their home fans against a Premier League club. I expect he’s going to be in for a long night on his debut for Forest if he features and he’s good odds at 5.0 on Paddy Power for a booking.
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Prediction: Steve Cook to Be Carded
Emile Smith Rowe to Score Anytime
Smith Rowe has Arsenal fans dreaming about the potential this youngster could achieve. Along with Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard and more, this Arsenals teams youngsters have made a convincing case that they will be serious contenders in the near future. It feels like a real turning point from their endless stream of double-barrelled name academy graduates spending years out on loan without cracking the first team. For Smith Rowe especially, this season has been a revelation seeing him top the scoring charts with 9 goals and racking up 2 assists along the way. His impressive form has seen him become a regular player this season under Mikel Arteta and he looks set to line up against Forest on Sunday.
Diving into his stats makes his return all the more impressive. Among the regular starters he has the lowest mins per goal at 154 which equals 0.58 goals per 90 minutes. He’s had a total of 23 shots this season and similarly has the highest shot accuracy with 78% hitting the target. Most importantly, he tops the goal conversion rate too with and significant 39% of his shots turning into goals. Following the international break the young talent has seen himself starting from the bench because of a fitness worry and consequently strong performances from players like Martinelli which have affected his playing time. With the absences in the squad, he will be almost guaranteed to start, and I expect him to be playing with the intention of impressing the manager as a starter. The man with the point to prove looks great value to score at odds of 3.75.
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Prediction: Emile Smith Rowe to Score Anytime
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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How to watch Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal in the FA Cup
📅 When is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal ? / Sunday, 9th January 2022, 17:10
🏟 Where is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal ? / City Ground (Nottingham)
📺 What TV Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal n on? / ITV 1
🟨 …And who is the referee for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal ? / Craig Pawson 🏴
