PSG have been very unlucky with the timing of injuries, Mbappe and Messi showed just how good they are in the World Cup but PSG will mainly have to go without them in the first leg. Hugo Ekitike has come in for Mbappe but has only managed 3 goals in 8 starts, for PSG a top striker would expect a much better goal scoring rate. Without Messi things get even worse, in the match against Monaco at the weekend PSG created one of the lowest amounts of xG of any of their matches this season, without Messi’s creativity PSG struggle to create chances.

Bayern Munich may have injuries but they haven’t suffered too much from it, they have lost 1 match in all competitions this season and that was back in September. According to Opta’s Power Rankings (a system which ranks every team in the world by a rating of between 0 and 100) Bayern are ranked as the best team in the world right now whereas PSG are ranked in 9th. In the group stages, Bayern won every match in a tough group that included Barcelona and Inter whereas PSG came in 2nd to Benfica in their group.

While it will be difficult to travel to the Parc des Princes, the number of key PSG injuries and the form of Bayern Munich means they should be good enough to avoid defeat in this match.

PSG are top of Ligue 1 and have only failed to score in 2 matches in all competitions this season. Furthermore, PSG have scored in all but 1 of their last 32 home Champions League matches and even without Mbappe and Messi starting, they still have Neymar to create and score goals. Defensively PSG are still not at their best, they are the only team in the Champions League knockouts yet to keep a clean sheet and they don’t even have the best defensive record in Ligue 1.

Bayern Munich have scored 59 goals in 20 league games so far this season, averaging around 3 per match and they scored in all their Champions League group matches. Defensively they are not the strongest either, in the Bundesliga they have conceded 18 goals in 20. Away at PSG, who are much better than your average Bundesliga team, Bayern Munich will struggle to keep PSG out.

Joshua Kimmich averages 0.96 fouls per 90 for Bayern this season but against bigger teams where he has more defensive duties the foul count is often higher. Against Inter Milan in the groups, he committed a foul in both games and against Barcelona he committed a foul in one match and 2 fouls in the other. In the Bundesliga it is a similar pattern, in his 10 matches against top 8 opposition he has committed at least 1 foul in 8 of them.

Kimmich’s job will be made even harder in this match as he will have to stop Neymar. Neymar draws 3.80 fouls per 90 on average, one of the highest of any player in Europe and plays a more central role for PSG which will see him dribbling at Kimmich often in this match. Neymar draws fouls all the time and Kimmich won’t be afraid to bring him down, so I expect at least 1 foul from Kimmich in this game.

Achraf Hakimi is lucky he is pacey going into this match as he will be facing some of the quickest players in Europe’s major leagues. Musiala, Sane or Coman could start on the left wing for Bayern Munich and average 1.52, 1.57 and 1.18 fouls drawn per 90 respectively. Hakimi makes 1.31 fouls per 90 on average and will be very busy in this match. Another trait of Hakimi is he loves to push out of defence and press the opposition full back.

For Bayern Munich this is likely to be their new signing Joao Cancelo, the Portuguese left back has drawn 1.33 fouls per 90 in minimal minutes for Bayern but drew 1.27 fouls per 90 in the first half of the season with Manchester City. In Bayern’s last 5 league matches, the opposition’s right back committed at least 1 foul every time and committed 2 fouls 3 of the times. Bayern are so strong down the left and Hakimi commits a fair few fouls so I expect Hakimi to commit at least 1 foul in this match.