Both teams post impressive recent results coming into this match, but Roma are up against a tougher level of opposition on a regular basis meaning that it is easier to read more into their recent games.

The home team have not conceded at home in Europe this season and have scored at least two goals in each of their fixtures at Stadio Olimpico. Expect the home side to get on the scoresheet here, particularly with Lukaku being lethal in this competition; he already has six goals to his credit.

Indeed, the home and away record of these teams in Europe are contrasting. Roma have won all three home matches easily whereas Feyenoord have lost three from three on the road, albeit in the Champions League.

Feyenoord should not be discounted either, with the Cheat Sheet showing they average around twice as many shots on target per match as their hosts. With Gimenez back fit, their scoring power gives them a puncher’s chance in this fixture, although they have bad memories of the Stadio Olimpico from November when they lost 1-0 against Lazio. That is one of only four games this season they have failed to score in.

The Dutch side should, therefore, be favoured to break Roma’s defensive invincibility at home, but the momentum of the hosts is likely to prove just too much for them.

Roma stats show that they have three players in particular who are likely to find the target with shots: Romelu Lukaku, Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini. All three shoot on target a little over 0.8 times per 90.

Of this trio, Lukaku and Dybala are the likeliest to score, reflected in the odds on them netting at 2.2 and 2.8 respectively. Lukaku has scored in six of his seven Europa League matches this season and has played virtually every minute.

Pellegrini, though, is an interesting case. He is one of the players whose playing time has most significantly increased under De Rossi. He had started five successive games under the former midfielder until he was preserved at the weekend after playing 90 in the first leg, suggesting that he has a significant role to play in this match. Odds of him simply having one shot on target at 1.67 are tempting while 4.5 to score anytime is decent value given he has three in his last six.

From a Feyenoord perspective, the return of Gimenez will have a transformative effect on the team. A scorer of 21 goals this season, he had three shots plus one on target in a 27-minute cameo last week, suggesting that he will pose issues here. The Feyenoord stats show he averages nearly 2 shots on target per 90, available at 2.3.

Simply backing the Mexico international to match his tally of 3 shots from last week at 1.5 looks strong value given he will have an hour or more more to achieve it and that he averages nearly 4 per 90.

Roma defender Gianluca Mancini is one player who offers excellent value when it comes to the fouls market. The centre-back lies second in the Roma stats list when it comes to fouls per 90 and is still priced at 1.2 to commit one infringement.

In this encounter, he will go up against Feyenoord’s Igor Paixao and Gimenez, two of the visitors’ three top foul winners. Paixao wins nearly 2 fouls on average per game, suggesting backing Mancini to commit two crimes is very plausible, and at evens he looks excellent value.

Pellegrini is another player worth considering. With Roma appearing to prime him to play the whole match if required, he committed 3 fouls in last week’s game. He is priced at 1.5 to even commit 1 in this match and can be backed at 9.0 to be as prolific in terms of giving away free kicks as he was seven days ago.

Pellegrini is liable to go up against Calvin Stengs, who he had a battle with last time out, with both players committing three fouls.

Quilindschy Hartman offers the best value for fouls on the Feyenoord side. He averages upwards of 1 per 90 and will go up against Paulo Dybala, who wins 2.36 per 90 on average. The Argentine may be given licence to wander, but it will be the left back who is primarily tasked with policing him. Hartman to commit one foul or more at 1.44 or three at 3.25 both look good value.