Travis Kelce is the number 1 tight end in football and arguably the best skill position player and receiver in the sport and his over/under receiving yards number reflects this at 79.5. Kelce is arguably a hall of fame tight end already and comes into this game in fine form in the playoffs, the time of the season where Kelce has traditionally shown his dominance.

The Chiefs tight end has been electric in his past 8 play-off games from the 2021 divisional round onwards. Posting 109 yards against the Browns, Kelce’s play-off games since then have seen 118, 133, 108, 96, 95, 98 and 78 receiving yards with at least 5 receptions in each game and 9 touchdowns in total. One of these games was Super Bowl 55 where Kelce had 133 yards on 10 receptions despite losing.

Philadelphia pose a great matchup for Kelce. They have an excellent pass rush, but the Chiefs O Line have been solid this season and when the Eagles pass rush doesn’t dominate, teams have been able to target the Eagles line-backers who struggle in coverage and are better pass rushers. Mahomes has targeted Kelce with a third of his passes in the playoffs and with the Eagles having lockdown corners in Slay and Bradberry who have allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards to WR’s this year, Kelce is the obvious target over the middle.

There were question marks surrounding Jalen Hurts going into this season, but he has thrived as a dual threat quarterback in this Eagles offence. In his 15 games this season, Hurts has had 3700 passing yards with 22 touchdowns but also boasted 760 rushing yards and a new record for rushing touchdowns from a quarterback.

Hurts is a phenomenal rusher and comes up against a defence that has allowed 40+ yards to the likes of Russell Wilson, Jarrett Stidham and Bryce Perkins. Since week 8, KC have allowed the 31st most rushing yards to quarterbacks at 34 per game. Furthermore the Chiefs defence operate a lot of man coverage which should allow their DC, Steve Spagnuolo to dial up some double teams on A.J. Brown to limit his threat. Focusing on their man coverage to cope with the receivers, should allow Hurts to be able to rush over a weak rush defence.

The Chiefs dial up a lot of their pressure via interior D lineman Chris Jones which should force Hurts outside the pocket to pick up yards scrambling. That, and being able to rush behind star right tackle Lane Johnson should mean Hurts has high yards per attempt. According to my cheat sheet, Hurts average 50.7 rushing yards per game, enough to cash this leg.

Due to Kelce, Dallas Goedert isn’t the top tight end in this game, but he is an extremely underrated piece in this Eagles offence. Goedert ranks 7th in receiving yards at the tight end position with 702 yards in just 12 games, less than anyone else in the top 20.

Goedert has some of the best hands in the league as a tight end with 55 receptions on 68 targets. Per the Cheat Sheet he averages 58.5 yards per game and on Sunday, he has an excellent matchup as tight ends operate over the middle and against line-backers in coverage. Over the past 6 weeks, the Chiefs line-backer core has allowed a 90% catch rate and as we know Dallas has a secure pair of hands to take advantage of this. Furthermore, and most importantly, Goedert averages 35 yards after the catch per game, only trailing Kelce.

Only going under 40 yards 4 times this season, I like Goedert’s over prop on yards. He had 5 receptions last week for just 23 yards against the best tackling unit of line-backers in the 49ers. The Chiefs rank 4th in PFF coverage grade but 16th against tight ends, further emphasising their struggles over the middle.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for the most passing touchdowns in the league and wrapped up his second MVP comprehensively on Thursday night. Only 3 quarterbacks in the league threw more than 30 regular season touchdowns and Mahomes had 41.

With Alex Smith at the helm and a complete roster, eyebrows were raised when the Chiefs traded their future picks to trade up for Mahomes but it’s their best decision in franchise history. Two MVP’s, one Super Bowl and five AFC Conference Championship appearances in five seasons. He has dominated the league this season despite losing star receiver Tyreek Hill.

An average of 2.41 Passing TD’s per game according to my cheat sheet, Mahomes to throw 2+ is exceptionally priced. Opening up the season with 5 touchdowns against the Cardinals, Mahomes has thrown 2+ in 14 of 19 games, including both postseason matchups despite being bugged by an injury. He shows up on the big stage with 32 touchdowns in 13 career playoff games.

The Eagles are a force at home but allow a 66% increase on passing touchdowns when playing away. Aside from a week 18 blow out over the Raiders, Mahomes has gone over 1.5 in six of his last seven games. With experience on the biggest stage, Mahomes should settle any nerves by starting fast and cashing this one fairly early.