Southend United v Barnet (National League)

Both Southend United and Barnet have reaped the rewards of change this season. 

There was a lot of change in the month following Phil Brown’s sacking at Southend United. Club legend Kevin Maher was brought in as manager and is now supported by former Blue Mark Bentley, ex-Barnet manager Darren Currie with the vastly experienced John Still and well-known Stan Collymore above him upstairs. There has been a clear change in tact in recruitment with four new signings added from the level below and three loan additions giving this side a much younger look. The bolder approach to recruitment is working with the Essex side having lost once in their last nine matches and won four of their last five. 

As for Barnet, there was only one major change on the football side of things but an important one with Head of Football Dean Brennan taking over from Harry Kewell in the dugout. Following his appointment, The Bees went on a run of seven wins in 11 matches and conceded more than one goal just once in his first 14 matches. However, their last two fixtures have been 4-1 and 5-0 defeats against Chesterfield and Stockport County, they have endured a postponement due to COVID cases and are without victory in five. A lack of pre-season and games over the last two months (six in all competitions) have been picked up as reasons by Brennan for the recent dip in form. 

Both sides are pretty strong against the sides in and around them in the table and that provides a little bit of doubt as to whether Southend will pick up all three points here. However, they are definitely the stronger side at the moment and their unbeaten run should continue.

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Kidderminster Harriers v Leamington (National League North)

The obvious bet here would be for Kidderminster Harriers to beat Leamington. After all, the numbers certainly stack up in their favour. 

Kidderminster have won 10 of their last 14 matches, losing just once, and their home record is almost perfect against the sides below them in the table – seven victories and one draw. Also, their record overall against sides in 10^th or below reads 12 wins and two draws from 14 matches. Meanwhile, Leamington have really struggled on the road. The Warwickshire outfit have won one of 11 games on their travels – a victory against then-struggling Blyth Spartans. 

However, Kidderminster Harriers’ sole home draw came at the weekend against a Gloucester City side that had lost their previous three and had been similarly poor on the road. This will also be Kiddy’s eighth match in 25 days. Russell Penn made four changes for their last midweek fixture, a hard-fought 1-0 win at Kettering Town in which they struggled to dominate, and it is likely that he will do similar for this one – especially with an FA Cup Fourth Round tie against West Ham United coming at the weekend.

Five of Kidderminster’s last seven games have seen under 2.5 goals while Leamington’s games have been similarly tight with four of their last six seeing less than three goals, as well as eight of their 11 away games overall.

Dorking Wanderers v Oxford City (National League South)

An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. 

Dorking Wanderers have won nine and lost one of their 10 home matches this season, that sole defeat coming early in the campaign when the Surrey outfit were struggling to find their rhythm. Oxford City, meanwhile, are undefeated on the road, having won five and drawn four of their away matches. Something is going to have to give and I think it will be that unbeaten away form. 

Dorking are in incredible form right now. They have won each of their last eight matches at home and won their last nine overall, scoring at least three goals in seven of those matches. Their last two victories have been 5-1 against fourth place Ebbsfleet United and 5-0 against a Billericay Town side that had conceded four goals in their previous six. There appears to be no stopping the Surrey outfit at the moment. 

Oxford City, in fairness, have won their last two, beating Welling United 1-0 and Havant and Waterlooville 3-1. However, they have recently seen manager David Oldfield move to Weymouth with Andy Ballard and Ross Jenkins as joint-caretakers. Looking closer at their unbeaten away record, they have drawn two and won one of their three away matches against teams in the top 10 and are yet to play any of the top four on the road. They also lost their home matches against Dorking and Maidstone. 

The concern in backing a side on a long unbeaten run is knowing that that run will end at some point. However, it’s hard not to back league leaders Dorking Wanderers for this one. 

Hampton and Richmond Borough v Eastbourne Borough (National League South)

The mid-table clashes in the National League South can be difficult to predict in terms of who wins and loses. Form is often inconsistent, as expected, and there is a sense of anybody beating anybody in this division. Hampton and Richmond, for example, are better against the sides below them but have also beaten Ebbsfleet United and Tuesday’s opponents Eastbourne Borough 3-0 and 5-0, respectively. Eastbourne, meanwhile, have beaten second and third place Maidstone United and Oxford City on the road – those games actually account for two of Eastbourne’s three clean sheets on the road. 

Goals are usually the guarantee. Games at Hampton and Richmond Borough’s Cleo Sault Beveree Stadium have seen an average of 3.1 goals per game with the hosts scoring an average of 1.8 goals. They have scored in eight of their ten home matches and conceded in seven with both teams scoring in six. Eastbourne Borough, meanwhile, are averaging 3.55 goals per game on the road, scoring in 11 and conceding in eight of their 11 away fixtures. 

More recently, Hampton have scored in each of their last four home matches and both teams have scored in five of their last eight. Their two most recent results didn’t follow that trend but it can be accounted for with Bath City struggling for goals recently and promotion chasing Ebbsfleet United always likely to tighten up amid heavy defeats. Eastbourne, meanwhile, have scored in each of their last 12 matches and conceded in 11 of their last 14. Notably, if you exclude games against sides in the top and bottom four of the league, both teams have scored in all but one of Eastbourne’s matches.

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