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UEFA Champions League Final: Man City v Inter Milan
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Competition: UEFA Champions League Final
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch live: BT Sport 1
Despite clumsy attempts from FIFA to try and build up World Club Football, there can be little doubt that the UEFA Champions League final is the pinnacle of club football every season.
This is the reason why the Manchester City owners have been so keen over the last decade to continue to back Pep Guardiola and the whole City Group operation, to try and get themselves to the very top of the club game. Now, only Internazionale stand in their way of ultimate triumph.
It is the Italian club that actually have the weight of history on their side in this tie. It is Inter that are the club that have won the Champions League before, in 2010 under Jose Mourinho, Inter’s own treble triumph. This added to their European Cup titles in the 1960s. Inter also have three UEFA Cups in their trophy cabinet, as well as the aforementioned Club World Cup from 2010 as well. Manchester City are mere whippersnappers on the European top table in comparison.
And yet. It is City who are undoubted favourites heading into the final. They are the shortest-priced favourites for a European final for some time and punters must decide whether they are with or against them. Value can be found in the market either way, and research has pointed towards some key areas to attack even if one wants to be with Manchester City.
City’s previous final appearance in the Champions League came two years ago. Thomas Tuchel’s Chelsea side did a number of Guardiola’s troops that night and emerged 1-0 victors. Simone Inzaghi and his coaching staff may look to some key principles from that performance, but Guardiola has evolved his model still further from 2021 so it will be fascinating to see how the tactical battle is fought at the Ataturk Stadium in Istanbul.
Using research from previous Champions League finals and the two teams themselves, we have a couple of value bets with our partners Paddy Power and their excellent bet builder function. The more daring can chance the 50/1+ beast but there is also a more modest option for other punters listed below.
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ABC’s 50/1 bet builder
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ABC’s 3/1 bet builder
We’re backing our 50/1 bet builder on Paddy Power to take advantage of the sign up offer below. Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the Champions League Final Bet Builder to maximise the value for this offer available ONLY to new customers.
UEFA Champions League Final Cheat Sheet
The above Cheat Sheet breaks down easily all of the stats ahead of Saturday’s clash in Istanbul. However, readers can find an even more comprehensive breakdown over in our Cheat Sheet & Stats Breakdown article here.
Form of past Champions League Finals
Looking over the past ten Champions League finals there are some really interesting trends that come out of the showpiece.
The last three finals have all ended 1-0 after 90 minutes. These 1-0’s have taken different forms, Real Madrid won last year with only three shots and one on target versus 23 shots of Liverpool, whereas Bayern took more shots and landed more on target against PSG in 2020.
Liverpool won 2-0 in 2019 with two early goals against Tottenham, making it the last four finals under 2,5 goals and BTTS No. However, just to confuse matters, the previous six finals, from 2013-2018 saw all of the teams scoring.
Extra time has been something of a rarity of late. Only two of the last ten finals have finished tied after 90 minutes, and both of those were all Madrid affairs.
Overall, the mean number of goals per final has been a mere 2.08 over the last decade. With over 2.5 landing only four times and Both Teams To Score landed six out of ten, though as discussed, not in the last four.
In terms of cards it has been something of a feast or famine coming from the referee’s pocket in the Champions League finals. Four of the last five finals have seen under 3.5 total cards land, including the 2019 final that saw no cards given whatsoever.
The common theme of all of those four finals with few cards is that at least one English team was involved in the final. The 2020 PSG v Bayern final saw four cards on each side and was a complete contrast from a disciplinary perspective.
The only other Italian team to reach a final in the last decade was Juventus, they received four cards in 2017 and two in 2015.
Another interesting point to make is that, similar to the Europa League finals in the last decade, is that when the total number of cards goes over 3.5, as it has in four of the last ten, it has also gone over 4.5. It is perhaps worthwhile going big if cards are a fancy in this tie, this was also the case in Wednesday’s Conference League final with six given out between Fiorentina and West Ham.
The referee for the final is Poland’s Szymon Marciniak. He has refereed eight Champions League ties this season and averaged 3.86 yellows per match. Extending this to his all-time Champions League and the average drops, only slightly, to 3.79.
The final point to make is that the average number of shots taken per team in the 90 minutes of the final is 10.5, with 3.96 on target. Four of the last six finalists haven’t managed 10 shots, but Liverpool hit the highest number of shots on record last year as well at 23.
Taking all of the trends and research into account there is a really interesting value bet with Paddy Power.
🏆 ABC’s 50/1 UEFA Champions League Final bet builder
We’ll be backing this high-odds Man City v Inter Milan bet builder on Paddy Power, where all of you can take advantage of this 50/1 bet builder our Scout has put together ahead of kick-off at 8pm Saturday night.
🎯 Man City to have 6+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.73
Though this line is bigger than the average for a team in a Champions League final, it is actually lower than the average that Manchester City have managed across their last 30 games in all competitions.
City hit 6 and 7 in their two-legged semifinal against Real Madrid, and 9 in the home leg of their quarter-final against Bayern. If Inter sit back and soak up the pressure, or especially if Inter score first, it is easy to see City piling up the shot count here.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Nicolo Barella to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 2.50
The Italian international is a key Inter player in the midfield. Though Barella is most well-known for his forward runs he will have an important job to stay in and around the City midfield here.
Inter are likely to want to block off central routes to goal, and also if they do go behind, then Barella will be a key man to produce the intensity to bring the Italian side back into the game.
Barella has gone over the line required here in 5 of his last 6 starts, committing 2, 0, 3, 2, 3 and 4 in those matches. The price looks very generous for this player.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🟨 Under 3.5 cards
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Odds: 2.40
As mentioned above, both sides are amongst the lowest offenders for yellow cards in their domestic leagues.
The pattern established in recent finals, especially with English representation is that they have been low card finals.
The referee’s average number of yellows given out isn’t particularly high either so there is quite a lot going for this bet.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Ilkay Gundogan to have 2+ shots on target
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Odds: 5.00
Gundogan has become a really key element to Manchester City in their big matches towards the end of the season. The German already has a Champions League final goal in his locker from 2013 for Borussia Dortmund as well, so he can hold his nerve on the biggest of stages,
There is a chance that he could take a free-kick, and also there is a variety of shots that Gundogan can take. He proved in the FA Cup final that he can shoot accurately from range but he can also hit the box at the right time to get on the end of something from wide.
He has had two shots on target in three of his last six starts, and has the third highest average number of shots on target in the City squad behind Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🏆 ABC’s 3/1 UEFA Champions League Final bet builder
For those wanting to have a more cautious approach, we also are supplying readers with this 3/1 UEFA Champions League Final bet builder which will increase your chances of leaving the day in profit.
✅ Man City to win
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Odds: 1.44
The treble is, of course, on the line, and Guardiola has failed to deliver the Champions League for Manchester City on so many occasions now, but surely the time has come for this manager and this group of players.
Inter have found some excellent form in Serie A to confirm their top three status and Champions League football again next season, but even their form cannot live with Manchester City’s march to the Premier League crown.
The majesty and totality of their performances and results in 2023 mean that the players are so comfortable and complete in their roles on the pitch that Guardiola’s on-pitch management has been reduced to small tweaks. Whilst this may be challenged by Inter, there has to be confidence that City will be the ones in control of the match and generating a higher xG, as they have done in 21 of their last 22 domestic matches.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Kyle Walker to commit 1+ foul
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Odds: 1.60
Walker is likely to play on the right of the defence in that hybrid right-back/right central defence role that has become a fixture in the Guardiola set-up this season. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last four starts.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🟨 Inter Milan to receive the most cards
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Odds: 1.67
Both teams were actually second in their respective leagues for fair play. Man City averaged 1.18 yellow cards per match and Inter 1.61 respectively. The difference in officiating in the two leagues probably takes into account that difference, but City’s dominance of possession and territorial advantage often means that opponents foul them in more dangerous positions, therefore picking up more yellow cards.
The stats suggest that the losers of the final are often the ones who also gather the most yellows, 6 out of the last 10 times. Given that City are fancied here, this bet could go along with that statistic.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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Sign up to Paddy Power and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £30 on the 50/1 UEFA Champions League Final bet builder. Here are the two possible outcomes:
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
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