In this article…
Chelsea v Luton
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Date: 25th August
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Competition: Premier League
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Kick off: 20:00
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Watch live: Sky Sports Main Event
The latest Friday Night Football sees newly promoted Mad Hatters Luton Town take a trip to Stamford Bridge to face big spenders Chelsea. The two clubs are worlds apart in terms of size, but in terms of passion and character, Luton have much more.
The gulf between the two sides is perfectly encapsulated by both teams’ last week. The Blues confirmed the signing of Moises Caicedo for a world record fee, whilst Hatters had their match against Burnley postponed due to their stadium not yet meeting Premier League requirements.
The Hatters’ squad is estimated to be worth around £30 million. The Blues have spent more than 30x that amount on their squad since the arrival of Todd Bohely. On paper, there should be only one winner, but football isn’t played with pens and notebooks.
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Chelsea off to a poor start
The Blues have been the talk of the Premier League for the last 18 months. They have been spending money and sacking managers and still are yet to have anything to show for it. There have been four men in the manager’s chair at the Bridge since last August, with the latest being Mauricio Pochettino.
The Argentine has struggled so far, picking up one point from his first two matches, including a 3-1 defeat to West Ham. Nothing more than a win will be acceptable for the Blues this Friday. New boy Moises Caicedo will likely start, he picked up two fouls in his 30-minute debut. He’s always one to look out for in the fouls/cards markets.
Raheem Sterling was a bright spark for the Blues, he’s produced 12 shots creating actions for the club this season. He’s looked like their best player so far this campaign.
Chelsea team news
All of the Blues’ squad that travelled to the London Stadium last Sunday should be available to play this Friday. They are still missing players such as new signing Christopher Nkunku, as well as Armand Broja, Trevoh Chalobah, Wesley Fofana, Benoit Badashile, and the captain Reece James.
Once the Blues get these key men back to full fitness they’ll be in a much better position. Nkunku in particular was the Bundesliga’s top scorer last season and will boost them hugely.
Hatters being halted by stadium issues
The Hatters being promoted came as a surprise to us all and by far the biggest talking point was how their stadium would fit in with Premier League regulations. Kenilworth Road is your typical EFL football ground, an old terrace adjoined by a housing estate. They are currently in the process of making upgrades to the ground and due to this they were unable to play their last PL fixture.
This can be seen as both a positive and a negative. It’s given them more time to recover but it’s also taken them off their stride a bit. Either way, they are huge underdogs going into this match and our bet builder predictions reflect this.
Luton team news
There are a couple of Hatters players who picked up knocks a couple of weeks back that could potentially return to the squad on Friday. Jordan Clarke and Dan Potts both suffered foot injuries and are currently being assessed.
However, it looks likely that Gabriel Osho and Reece Burke will miss the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea v Luton Cheat Sheet
Here is our Cheat Sheet for the game, which holds all of the key stats and data that you’ll need to make informed bet builder picks at Paddy Power. It includes all of the markets including new ones like Goalkeeper Saves and Fouls Won.
We have used it to help make our bet builder predictions. Have a read through and you’ll be able to make some well-informed bet builder predictions for yourself if you like other selections more.
To make the most of our bet builder tips you can sign up to Paddy Power below. Stake up to £10 on your preferred option, and get £50 in free bet builders no matter what the result.
ABC’s 11/4 Chelsea v Luton bet builder
⚽ Nicolas Jackson to score or assist
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Odds: 1.53
Nicolas Jackson has had no issues so far adjusting to the league’s physicality.
Jackson has taken six out of the Blues’ 26 shots in the two opening matches of the season and we are expecting him to open his Chelsea account against the Hatters, who faced 27 shots in their one Premier League match so far.
He is no stranger to a goal, finishing as Villarreal’s top scorer last season with 12 goals.
For some added safety measure we’ve added either to score or assist, as Jackson has been prone to run the ball on Chelsea counter attacks drawing the last man with him and laying it off for a teammate to have a crack at goal. He was the joint third top assister at Villarreal last season, with four assists.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Ruddock Mpanzu to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.67
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu committed on average 0.85 fouls last season. However, we are expecting to see this number rise this season.
Finishing third in the Championship last season, the Hatters players will have to adapt to a game style that no longer sits on the front foot in matches, to one where they sit deep waiting to exploit the counter. This will always mean committing more fouls as well.
Unsurprisingly then, Ruddock Mpanzu made three fouls in his last match against Brighton. We are expecting him to pick up some more against the Blues, as he’ll face the number one most fouled Chelsea player in Gallagher and number five, Enzo Fernandez. Both drawing an average of 1.94 and 1.28 fouls per 90′ respectively.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🟨 Over 3.5 cards
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Odds: 1.36
Since the start of Premier League season, there has been a crackdown on disciplining players by the referees, and boy do they mean business. Astonishingly, only three matches throughout matchday one AND two saw under 3.5 cards.
In fact, said three matches came from matchday one, and things have only escalated since, with five red cards dished out during matchday two.
The Blues’ matches have seen five and six cards ripped out of the referee’s pocket, picking up three themselves each match and the Hatters drawing two out of four cards in their match against Brighton.
Additionally, the referee, Robert Jones, carries an average 5.5 cards per match this season and 3.33 cards overall in his career. It all points to a cards fest at the Bridge.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
ABC’s 13/1 Chelsea v Luton bet builder
⚽ Nicolas Jackson to score anytime
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Odds: 1.91
Luton looked a shellshocked side on their opening matchday against Brighton, and adding Nicolas Jackson as a goalscorer at odds of just under evens is good value considering the positive start to life he has made in west London.
Villareal’s top scorer last season with 12, Jackson has been a constant menace in his two games this season, and we’re fully expecting him to open his Chelsea account here.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Ruddock Mpanzu to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 4.20
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu committed three fouls in Luton’s opener against Brighton. And we’re expecting more of the same here, as he’ll face the number one most fouled Blues player in Conor Gallagher and number five, Enzo Fernandez. Expect a big central midfield battle at the Bridge and for Ruddock Mpanzu to get fully stuck in.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🟨 Over 1.5 Chelsea cards
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Odds: 1.57
Chelsea’s lack of discipline so far this season is clear, having picked up three bookings in each of their two games. 1.57 for just two cards for Pochettino’s men here seems a generous price in our eyes.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing
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