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Value bets is an article where we tip selections earlier in advance of the event than we do otherwise on-site, to maximise our chances of spotting value by picking bets earlier in the week that we believe will shorten in odds by the time kick-off arrives, in aiming to beat the closing line.
What is a value bet?
A value bet is simply a bet where we believe the likelihood of the bet winning is greater than the implied probability of the odds. Odds of evens have an implied probability of 50% that the bet wins. This knowledge allows us to get ahead of the odds potentially shortening and, therefore, find value.
Enhance your punting potential ahead of the EFL weekend by equipping yourself with the best free betting offers to utilise on our expert football predictions. Our Betfair review is a shrewd visit to ensure you’re making the most of our EFL football tips in 2024/25.
⚽ Accrington Stanley v Port Vale
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Kick Off: Saturday 21st September at 12:30
🏆 Port Vale to win
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Odds: 2.10
Sadly, this is a mainly anti-Accrington stance.
Stanley were heavily supported for relegation in the pre-season markets. The reasoning for this was mainly managerial, budgetary, and recruitment-based, and all of these question marks have gotten larger rather than having been answered.
The loss of John Coleman and Jimmy Bell after so many years steering Accrington so successfully was always going to be a tough challenge. The appointment of John Doolan looked risky, and Doolan hasn’t had the good start that he needed to instil belief in his young and inexperienced squad.
Accrington have always had a tight budget, but it has always been well used in the past. At the moment, the non-league recruitment hasn’t worked for Stanley and they are struggling for goals. Their last home match against Crewe saw them generate only 0.29 xG.
On the other side of the coin, Darren Moore’s Port Vale were heavily supported for a Top 7 finish after their recruitment looked excellent over the summer.
The season didn’t start well, but back-to-back wins, including an important 1-0 over Chesterfield at the weekend should start to give the Valiants confidence that they can challenge for promotion as expected.
Vale are now top seven for xG created and xG against and their variety and quality in attack is coming to the fore with the likes of Jayden Stockley, Lorent Tolaj, and Ethan Chislett now off the mark, and with plenty of quality in reserve as well.
This price will end up being odds-on for a Vale win come Saturday, so getting an odds against price is a good bet.
⚽ Bolton v Reading
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Kick Off: Saturday 21st September at 15:00
🏆 Reading double chance
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Odds: 2.0
The Bolton Wanderers fan base is not a pleasant place at the moment.
Some have been describing the likely atmosphere at this match as a “snakepit” if Ian Evatt takes charge of Bolton on Saturday, a prospect that was doubtful off the back of a 0-4 humbling at home to Huddersfield last Saturday, but seems pretty certain since the announcement of changes to the backroom staff on Monday.
The Huddersfield defeat was not only shocking in its scoreline, but in the manner of defeat. Evatt’s Bolton have been known for their dominance, dynamism, and ability in possession, but they were totally outclassed on their home turf. Bolton were outshot five shots to 16, created zero big chances to Huddersfield’s five and created 0.13 xG and concede 2.92.
The result also means that Bolton have failed to win any of their three home matches in League One, losing 0-2 to Exeter and drawing 0-0 with Wrexham on opening weekend. This also means that the Whites have failed to score at all at the Toughsheet in the league.
Reading aren’t the most reliable away team to take Bolton on with, but they are a very competent outfit with one of the lower leagues’ most talented head coaches. They got a very creditable, and deserved, draw at Birmingham on opening day, the only points that Birmingham have dropped so far, and they are top six for goals against and xG against so far this season despite playing Birmingham, Wrexham, and Charlton in their fixtures.
Once people latch onto the discontent in the Bolton ranks, and the heaviness of their recent defeats, the price on the double chance will move steadily into odds on. Act now to get an even money or slightly odds against price.
Tips for Exchange Betting
Odds tend to move more on betting exchanges and the Betfair Exchange is a great place to make the most of that. If you’ve never used the exchange before, here is an explainer video to get you up to speed.
How to use The Betfair Exchange | Trading Football with Dimitar Berbatov.
18+ please gamble responsibly.
Written by an Andy verified content writer