Leeds were in encouraging form in the weeks leading up to their FA Cup disappointment, with a seven match unbeaten streak. They pulled off some notable victories in that stretch, including a 2-1 win against Man United at Old Trafford. That surge in form has seen them establish daylight over the bottom three, and they will fancy their chances against a Burnley side who have already had their relegation confirmed. 

The Clarets have very little to play for this weekend, and their recent results reflect that. Scott Parker's side have won just once since October, and their away record this season has been dreadful. They have lost 12 of their 17 away matches this term - no side has suffered more defeats on their travels in the Premier League this season. 

Leeds haven’t been much better on the road, but their performances at Elland Road has made up for that - they have only lost five of their 17 home games this season. 

That includes a convincing 3.0 win against basement-dwellers Wolves in their last home outing, and this upcoming clash against Burnley promises to be a similar matchup. Despite going 2-0 after just 20 minutes against Rob Edwards’ men, Leeds kept pushing for goals - they racked up 17 shots and seven big chances worth 2.82 xG, and they managed five corners. 

Leeds have been effective at generating corners at Elland Road throughout the season, and they are averaging 5.67 corners per game at home this campaign. Given the context of the fixture, they will have to play with a progressive mindset once again, so that corner figure could rise further. 

Meanwhile, Burnley are averaging 5.97 corners conceded per game in the league this season, rising to 6.24 when playing away. They have been quite passive on their travels, so Leeds should be able to dominate. 

Bashir Humphreys is averaging just 0.83 fouls per 90 across all competitions this season, which is nothing to write home about, but the nature of his infringements is what makes this market stand out. The 23-year-old has only committed 13 fouls this season for Burnley, but five of those have been worthy of a yellow card, which is an impressive rate. Humphreys tends to make cynical, last-ditch challenges when he finds himself out of position, which makes this card price stand out. 

Humphreys will be given a test this weekend against a Leeds side who will have to be front-footed. His main matchup will be against Calvert-Lewin, who is a physical presence up top for Leeds, while Okafor is always looking to beat his marker, bringing a different dynamic to the Leeds front line. Humphreys should have plenty of defensive work to get through this weekend. 

Zian Flemming has been one of Burnley's more active players when it comes to fouls, and his numbers when playing away are particularly notable. The Dutchman is averaging 2.49 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, and that figure jumps to 3.31 when playing on the road, where he has landed this selection in each of his last six successive away appearances. He has been fortunate to escape with just one booking in that stretch, which shows how his fouls tend to be quite soft, rather than cynical. 

Fleming draws an excellent matchup to keep improving those numbers against Leeds here, as they tend to be much better at controlling possession when playing at home. Leeds were fouled 17 times by Wolves in their last home outing, and Flemming recorded two infringements in the reverse fixture.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a straight shootout for a spot in the Champions League next season with Hoffenheim sitting below Stuttgart in the Bundesliga table on goal difference alone. Hoffenheim have seen 3+ goals in each of their last four matches across all competitions, most recently registering 2-1 victories over the likes of Hamburg and Dortmund to keep their Champions League qualification hopes alive.

Stuttgart have seen 3+ goals in three of their last five matches in the Bundesliga, and have notably seen 64 goals across their 15 away games in the Bundesliga top flight this term (4.26 per game). Hoffenheim have seen 49 goals across their 15 home games in the German top flight this season (3.26 per game), so this clash is set up to produce goals given the records of these sides across the season as a whole and the direct fight that they find themselves in. 

There are only four goals between these sides when it comes to goal difference as well, with Stuttgart having the advantage in that particular metric, so Hoffenheim may need to get a convincing win here to ensure that they don’t miss out on a spot in the Champions League next season from goal difference alone.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

The initial league meeting between these sides finished 2-2, which is a bit of a snapshot of how entertaining Nijmegen’s games have been in the Eredivisie this season. Nijmegen have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches in the Dutch top flight, and have notably only kept five clean sheets across their 31 matches (16%), which is a very low figure for a side competing for a spot in the Champions League next season.

Nijmegen can play like this due to how forward thinking they are, they don’t mind giving up goals as they often feel as though they can outscore the opposition - which is a tactic that has worked for them so far this campaign. Their 15 home games have produced 61 goals (4.06 per game), and they’ve conceded 23 goals across these games - suggesting that there is a vulnerability about them that Telstar can look to exploit.

Telstar are battling at the bottom of the Eredivisie, giving them all the motivation they need to get on the scoresheet in this encounter. They scored twice when the sides last met, and have scored at least once in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides. They’ve also scored 15 goals across their 15 away matches, which is a steady record for a relegation threatened side.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

PSV don’t keep many clean sheets for a side that has dominated the Eredivisie (again), sitting 19 points clear at the top of the table but only keeping seven clean sheets across their 31 matches in the Dutch top flight this campaign (22%).

They’ve seen BTTS in four of their last five matches, and have also seen 53 goals across their 15 away games in the Eredivisie (3.53 per game) - impressively winning 13 of these matches. 

They take on an Ajax side who are chasing down Nijmegen and Feyenoord for a spot in the Champions League next season, Ajax managed to earn a 2-2 draw when these sides met earlier in the campaign and have seen 42 goals across their 15 horn games in the Eredivisie this term (2.8 per game). 

BTTS has landed in five of the last six head to head meetings between these sides, and Ajax’s desperation to break into the Champions League spots partnered with PSV’s slight complacency having already secured the title should see both sides be able to get on the scoresheet here.

Last week's Saturday Acca won @ 4.04 ✅

This is a game that Arsenal simply have to win, Manchester City travel to face Everton on Monday, which is no easy assignment, so this could be the weekend for Arsenal to open up a convincing gap at the top of the table given that they take on an easier opponent in Fulham at home.

Arsenal played pretty well in Madrid during the week, but only came away with a 1-1 draw from the game - leaving the tie in the balance until the sides meet at the Emirates next week, complicating matters further for Mikel Arteta as he can’t really afford to rotate his side for either crucial game. Arsenal have won 13 of their 17 home matches in the Premier League this season, collecting more points than any other side at home (41) and conceding fewer goals than any other side (11). 

Fulham have been really poor on the road this campaign, winning just four of their 17 away games in the Premier League. Only Leeds (14), Burnley (9) and Wolves (5) have picked up fewer points on the road than Fulham in the top flight this campaign, so Arsenal really should be collecting all three points in this game given the situation with the title race and factoring in Fulham’s poor record away from home in the Premier League this season.