I like a good narrative, and there are quite a few across the pitch here, but my focus is on former Arsenal centre back Konstantinos Mavropanos - who has already bruised the Gunners before. Mavropanos scored against Arsenal at the Emirates back in 2023, with that 2-0 win for West Ham being one of the key reasons as to why Arsenal’s title charge was derailed that year.

He’s pretty average as a centre back in all honesty, he’s been better towards the end of the season, but I think that’s more due to the changes around him with Axel Disasi and Mads Hermansen stepping into the fold. Mavropanos has scored three goals in the Premier League this season, and has taken 21 shots across these games (0.84 per 90) - so he’s posted pretty similar numbers to Gabriel this term. 

He’s had a shot in each of his last two home games for West Ham, notably scoring twice against Wolves from corners a few weeks ago. West Ham’s main route to goal could be through set pieces here, and Mavropanos is an excellent candidate to make the most of what could be a healthy corner count for the Hammers. 

Set pieces have been decisive in the Premier League all season. This campaign has seen more goals from set pieces than each of the last 10 Premier League campaigns, and I think they will play a part in sealing the relegation and title battles, which could go all the way to the end of the season.

Gabriel is always a threat from corners and set pieces, I’d say he’s probably the best centre back in the Premier League when it comes to attacking corners and also making space for himself in the box. His movement is really clever and allows him to lose his marker and get shots off. Arsenal racked up eight corners when they faced West Ham earlier in the season, so we can expect Gabriel to have chances from corners here.

Gabriel has registered seven goal contributions across his 28 starts in the Premier League, which is a respectable total for a centre back, and has scored 4+ goals across each of his last three seasons. He’s averaging 0.86 shots per 90 in the Premier League, and the prominence that set pieces should have here should give Gabriel a good chance of finding the target. 

I love Mateus Fernandes, I think he’s so talented and will develop into a top Premier League midfielder. I’ve had my eye on him all season due to his impressive performances for a side battling at the bottom of the table, and he has the ability to really control games, which is a standout trait of the 21-year-old.

The slight drawback for Fernandes is his disciplinary record; he’s picked up seven yellow cards across his 32 starts for West Ham in the Premier League this season - more than any other West Ham player, while averaging 1.47 fouls committed per 90. He’ll have to be tenacious again here if West Ham want to combat the control that Arsenal are often able to establish in midfield.

He’s picked up four cards across his last 10 Premier League starts for West Ham, showing how his frustration is starting to peak towards the end of the campaign. I can see him lunging into tackles against Eberechi Eze, but also getting frustrated if things start to go against West Ham and they are unable to get a feel of the ball.

Arsenal Most Shots on Target in Each Half

Arsenal average the third-most Shots on Target per game in the league (4.91), comfortably clear of West Ham (3.49).
But what really stands out here is what both sides allow defensively.

Arsenal concede fewer Shots on Target than anyone in the league, a full shot per game fewer than the next-best side, whilst West Ham concede the second-most. That’s a huge gap.

This selection landed in the reverse fixture too, when Arsenal totalled five Shots on Target to West Ham's zero.

Arsenal Most Corners in Each Half

You don't need me to tell you how much Arsenal love a corner. They average 5.89 per game whilst only conceding 3.31.

West Ham have had a lot of success from set pieces since Nuno joined, so I'm sure Arteta will have told his team to limit the amount of corners they concede.

Again, this landed at the Emirates earlier this season. Arsenal finished on six corners, West Ham on two.

West Ham 2+ Cards

This is crunch time for West Ham now, they need results or they'll be going to the Championship. This sort of pressure usually results in cards whether it be through frustration or desperation.

Looking at West Ham's last five matches they've covered this line in four, being awarded 3+ cards in a couple of these games too. They also covered it in the reverse fixture.