Next stop, Brighton.

Our focus is on Chelsea here, the Blues are really struggling under Liam Rosenior at the moment having lost four of their last five matches - failing to score in all four of these defeats.

Only Bournemouth, Tottenham and Brighton have picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (75 - 2.27 per game). This card count really isn’t surprising, Chelsea’s recruitment model has made them stick to buying young talent which has a few drawbacks, one of which being a lack of composure and being quick to petulance:

23/24: 105 yellow cards (4 red cards) - 1st
24/25: 99 yellow cards (2 red cards) - 1st 
25/26: 75 yellow cards (7 red cards) - 4th*

*5 games remaining 

This game has become a bit of a grudge match too, the constant business between the sides since the new ownership took over has led to this being quite a competitive game. Chelsea picked up four yellow cards and a red card when these sides met earlier in the season - and have picked up 2+ cards in each of the last six head to head meetings between the sides, with three red cards also being shown across these games to the Blues.

Chelsea’s season is collapsing and the calibre of player they have will be frustrated with what is likely to be another tough afternoon for Rosenior’s side. Brighton have drawn at least one card from their opponents in 32 of their 33 Premier League matches this term, drawing 2+ cards in 22 of these games (66%) - including each of their last three games. 

The referee for this game is Craig Pawson, who has handed out 42 yellow cards across his 17 appointments in the Premier League this season (2.47 per game). This is quite a modest card count compared to other Premier League referees, but I think the wider context around the game will force Pawson into exceeding his usual card count. 

I think we’ll see more petulance and careless challenges from Chelsea, aided by the obvious frustration surrounding the club at the moment given how their season is unravelling. Brighton are the perfect side to antagonise them too, given the recent animosity between the sides.

The last two EFL BTTS & No Draw Doubles have won @ 6.5 and 7.5 ✅

This is a huge game at both ends of the Championship table. Oxford find themselves in the relegation zone, five points from safety but crucially holding a game in hand on the teams around them. 

They’ve only kept eight clean sheets across their 43 matches in the Championship this term (5.3%), with only Watford, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday keeping fewer clean sheets than Oxford in the Championship this season. 

They welcome a Wrexham side that sit just two points below the playoff spots, aiming to catch Hull - the other focus of our BTTS & No Draw angle here - as well as being closely pursued by Derby, who beat Oxford 1-0 last time out. 

Wrexham have seen 51 goals across their 21 away games in the Championship this term (2.42 per game), with there being a pretty equal split in the number of goals scored and conceded (26-25). They do tend to see more chaos at home, but the situation surrounding this game should bring that chaos to Oxford - who desperately need the points themselves. 

This is one of only two games that Oxford have remaining this season, with the next being a near guaranteed three points as they welcome Sheffield Wednesday. They travel to a high flying Millwall in the final game of the campaign, so this has the look of a game that will produce goals at both ends and result in a winner, a draw does nothing for both of these sides at this stage of the season.

The last two EFL BTTS & No Draw Doubles have won @ 6.5 and 7.5 ✅

This is a very similar situation to Oxford v Wrexham with these sides competing at opposite ends of the table, with the weaker side crucially being at home. 

I know it’s a bit bold to back Leicester to score at the moment, they’ve been pretty dire of late - but they probably should have scored at least once in each of their last two games, racking up an xG of 0.91 against Portsmouth last time out and an xG of 1.37 against Swansea in their most recent home game. 

They’ve taken 32 shots across those games without finding the back of the net, suggesting while the general criticism towards Leicester is more than warranted, they have been a little unlucky in recent matches. 

Only Sheffield Wednesday (4) have kept fewer clean sheets than Leicester (5) in the Championship this term. They’ve conceded 31 goals across their 21 home games, but also managed to score 28 goals in these matches, indicating that they can cause Hull plenty of problems.

Hull are under just as much pressure as Leicester at the opposite end of the table, clinging onto the final playoff spot with Wrexham and Derby in close pursuit. The good news for Hull is that they have been pretty strong on the road this season, notably only drawing four of their 21 matches (19%), and seeing 60 goals across these games (2.85 per game). 

The initial league meeting between these sides saw BTTS & No Draw as Hull came away 2-1 winners over Leicester with both sides registering an xG in excess of 1.0 (1.52-1.48).