Saturday’s 7/1 EFL Accumulator Tips

We head to St Andrew’s in this weekend’s acca, where Sheffield Wednesday will face off against Birmingham.

The Wayne Rooney era at Birmingham has not begun in the manner that he, or the ambitious ownership, would have wanted.

The former England captain and second-highest goalscorer for his country will, most likely, get time to imprint his philosophy at Blues. He surely deserves at least one transfer window, but one suspects that the international break will have given Rooney, Ashley Cole, and John O’Shea some good time with the majority of the squad to impose their desired style of play.

It is well documented, through the club’s own statements, that Rooney’s remit is to employ a ‘no-fear’ playing style. The owners expect, but the team haven’t yet been able to deliver. However, there have been some signs of improvement, at least in terms of going forwards, before the international break.

They scored twice against Ipswich at St Andrew’s, and created over 1 xG at the Stadium of Light directly before the break. Unfortunately, this also came with 5 goals conceded across the two matches, but this is no bad thing from a betting perspective.

Sheffield Wednesday have been another Championship early changer in the dugout. This time with a little more evidence to do so with Xisco Munoz instilling very little confidence in his short reign at Hillsborough.

Danny Rohl has talked the talk, and their has undoubtedly been an improvement in some aspects of performance, but there continues to be heavy doubts about the quality in the Sheffield Wednesday squad.

Anthony Musaba has been a real bright spark for Wednesday moving forwards, but, as yet, appears to have left his shooting boots in Monaco, or perhaps even in the Netherlands. Regardless, Wednesday have seen an upturn in their chance generation, but against Millwall last time out, they also showed that they continue to have a real weakness defensively again.

Birmingham’s home matches have averaged 2.625 goals per match, and Wednesday, though they have scored only 7 goals, have actually generated 14.3 xG so far this season, a massive underperformance. It should be expected that will begin to even itself out over the next few months.

The second game of our accumulator sees Preston hosting Cardiff at Deepdale.

Whilst Preston do continue to overperform their performance data with their results, the perfect example coming in their last gasp win over Blackburn just before the international break, they have maintained an excellent home record.

It is five wins in eight at Deepdale in the Championship, with only one defeat. Whilst one must expect this to drop off over a full campaign, as very few of the wins have been convincing, either in performance or outcome, it is difficult to envisage this coming against Cardiff.

The Welsh club are having a very strong start to the season as well, matching pace with Preston for the most part, and in the play-off race. Again, there is a slight indication of overperformance when it comes to the Bluebirds, having scored 25 goals from an xG of only 19.6. Despite the overperformance they have still managed only two victories on the road in the Championships from eight away games.

Therefore, the vast majority of matches where this scenario is in play, either a Preston home win or draw, or a Cardiff away defeat has happened in 15 from 18 cases.

Preston will be set up well as always, helped by the fact that they carry few internationals in their senior squad, only Alan Browne, Liam Millar, and youngster Kian Best, were missing from the squad over the international break. This will have definitely aided preparation for Ryan Lowe and his staff.

Cardiff, by contrast, had nine players away over the break. This is a small difference in the grand scheme of things, and players/staff are used to this, of course, but it can only be helpful to have a larger percentage of your squad available to do work with over the course of the break, whether that is tactical or for social cohesion.

Two sides whose recent form could not be more different meet at the Toughsheet Community Stadium this weekend. Just goal difference is keeping Bolton Wanderers out of the automatic promotion spots after a run of five wins in a row and three clean sheets on the bounce heading into the international break.

Carlos Mendes Gomes, Josh Sheehan, Eoin Toal, Dion Charles and Zac Ashworth were involved for their nations during the break, but the Trotters have the depth to cope if they are fatigued ahead of Saturday.

Exeter City have picked up one point from the last available 24 in League One (1D 7L in their last eight in the league). They have only scored two goals in those eight games and supporters are turning on Gary Caldwell having watched them average 0.25 GF per game in that run.

Key man Demetri Mitchell is out for the season with an ACL injury while Dion Rankine, Tom Carroll and Reece Cole are not 100% fit, four players who were crucial in the Grecians’ positive start to the season. They are now just one point above the relegation zone and were beaten 3-0 by 21st-placed Fleetwood Town just before the break.

If it was not for Bolton’s international excursions, particularly that of striker Dion Charles, Bolton would be a lot shorter than 1.40 to win the game. This feels the closest to a home banker on the League One card this weekend.

Carlisle United are in for a long and hard season in League One. Paul Simpson worked absolute wonders to take them from League Two relegation battlers to play-off winners in just over 12 months, but they are facing the reality of that sensational overperformance in their third tier ineptitude this term.

The Cumbrians have kept just one clean sheet in their 17 League One games so far and have scored two or more goals just four times in that run. It is very hard to consistently pick up points with records like that.

James Garner is suspended for this one due to an accumulation of yellow cards and Simpson has hinted towards it being more of a damage limitation job, in referring to keeping Carlisle in touching distance of the dotted line until they get the opportunity to strengthen in January. Despite, having one of the smaller budgets in the division.

Charlton have lost just two of 14 in all competitions and have produced a run of 5W 4D 2L in the league since sacking Dean Holden after five games. They average 1.69 GF per game compared to Carlisle’s 0.76 and will have been delighted to welcome Tayo Edun back into the squad in recent weeks.

Edun completely enhances their attacking capabilities because he is the only senior left back at the club. An enormous upgrade on Terell Thomas, through no fault of his own as a right footed centre back, in the final third.

League leaders Stockport County are looking for a 13th consecutive victory when they travel to Newport County this weekend.

It’s been a phenomenal run and one that has eclipsed their 8 and 9-match winning runs during their run to promotion from the National League in 2021-22 under Challinor. It hasn’t been fortunate either with The Hatters proving themselves to be the best team in the division both through results and performances.

The Hatters have scored 2 or more in 11 of those 12 victories and each of their last 6, and are averaging 0.7 xG more than their opposition per game during that period. What is even more impressive is that Antoni Sarcevic’s unavailability for the last outing led to them changing shape with no issues. They are now 8 points clear of 4th-placed Wrexham as they sprint to promotion.

It would be a surprise if Newport were to halt the run. While they have only lost two of their nine home matches, they have only played two of the current top 12, drawing against both Barrow and AFC Wimbledon during a more positive run of form back in September.

County have since lost seven of their last 12 with a small squad hampered by injuries, leading to Graham Coughlan having to change shape and play players out of position, often unable to select a full 18. They are now winless at home in six and their only victories have come against lowly Doncaster Rovers, Sutton United and Colchester United early on in the season.

Wrexham are looking to continue their excellent form at the Racecourse Stadium when they host Morecambe on Saturday.

The Welsh club have lost only twice at home under the stewardship of Phil Parkinson, the second of those coming against MK Dons on opening day. They have responded positively to that defeat, winning 6 and drawing 2 of their last 8 on home turf. Their excellent form has come because of their attacking play, Wrexham have scored 27 goals in their 9 home games and have scored at least 2 in each match.

They did lose last time out at Accrington Stanley but enter this one stronger, with James McClean returning to his left-wing-back role while Ollie Palmer could return to partner Paul Mullin in attack.

They take on a Morecambe side that have been excellent despite their ongoing financial issues, but they were dealt a huge blow this week with the departure of Derek Adams to Ross County. He’s been responsible for their epic rise from regular League Two survival specialists to a run in League One despite their budgetary limitations.

Even with Adams, their away form has been poor. They have won 3 and lost 5 but lost all 4 matches away from home against teams 14th or higher in the league table, scoring just once in those games. And despite sitting in the top half, they are overachieving against their underlying numbers, something that is likely to change under new management amid off-field issues. That should start at Wrexham.