Our EFL experts have picked out 6 selections from Saturday’s Championship, League One, and League Two fixtures, producing acca odds of 10.22 – a £10 bet returns £102 if it lands.
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Saturday’s EFL Accumulator Tips
Whilst this is obviously a fairly short win price for the Black Cats, in some ways it could be even shorter given the disparity in quality and form between the 2 teams here.
Sunderland are fresh off a great display at the Riverside where they oozed quality against another very good team. The fact that their 3rd, and winning, goal was an own goal should not detract from the attacking quality that was on display. The winter window has been good to Sunderland, with Enzo Le Fee showing signs of acclimatising to the league, Wilson Isidor making his move permanent should also give him more security and confidence, and with Jayden Danns coming in as competition, Sunderland look to be in a strong place going forward.
Sunderland remain unbeaten at home, but they have a warning sign from their last home match which should help them avoid complacency. The 2-2 draw with Plymouth could be costly long term and no doubt Regis Le Bris will have drilled that into the team ahead of Watford’s visit.
The Hornets have lost 9 of their 15 away matches in the league, 60%. In their other visits to the top 4 they lost 2-1 at Leeds, 2-1 at Burnley, and 1-0 at Sheffield United. On each occasion they failed to create 1 xG in terms of chances, which, when that side of the game has been a strength for them this season, is a major concern.
Tom Cleverley’s position as manager has been called into question on a number of occasions in recent weeks, and the speculation cannot help the current form.
Seven defeats in 9 matches in all competitions is a sign of the malaise at Vicarage Road, and they may have to rely on good fortune to get a result at the Stadium of Light.
1 of the more eye-catching League One games on the Saturday card involves 2 teams currently in the promotion picture. Stockport sit comfortably inside a play-off place for now, but a 9-point gap to the top 2 has emerged. As for Barnsley, they’re only a point behind the top 6, sitting amongst a cluster of clubs realistically fighting it out for 6th place. County are on a 4-game winning streak and The Tykes are winless in 4, but the away side should still make their presence felt at Edgeley Park.
Darrell Clarke’s side have only failed to score in 3 away league encounters this season. Their away record itself is amongst the best in the division, even despite losing 2 in succession on their travels. They at least scored in both of those contests, meaning they’ve netted in 9 of their previous 10 away in all competitions.
Those of a Stockport persuasion will be correct to point out they have 1 of the best home records in League One, with only Wrexham and Birmingham managing more home points. There has been a slight vulnerability that has crept into their game when playing in front of their own supporters. Dave Challinor’s men have conceded in 13 of their 21 home fixtures in league and cup, including in 4 of the last 6. Although they’ve won their past 2 at home to nil, they came against clubs in the relegation zone.
It was quite surprising to see the price of a home win here when compared to some of the other prices this week.
Derby have attempted to recruit their way out of trouble, mainly by buying Vikings from Viking in Norway. Lars-Jørgen Salvesen looks like an archetypal Paul Warne forward and if they can supply him, then it is a plan that could easily work. A remodelled defence of Sondre Langås and Matt Clarke also shows promise, but the problem is that the Canaries are also looking very strong post-window.
Part of Norwich’s strength comes in the form of players returning from injury, the major 1 being Josh Sargent, who has 3 goals in his first 2 starts back from injury. However, this is also the first match that Matej Jurasek is available for selection since his transfer earlier in the window, so there is a lot more depth in attacking areas for Johannes Hoff Thorup all of a sudden.
Norwich have scored 36 goals in 14 home matches, with a goal difference of +17, so Thorup’s brand of attacking football looks to be paying dividends at Carrow Road.
Derby, on the other hand, couldn’t be in worse form. 7 defeats in a row is a historically bad run for the Rams, and whilst that sort of record is almost a concern because of the dreaded variance, the quality of players on the pitch and conditions of the match have to favour a Norwich win here.
Just to add to the evidence in Norwich’s favour, they have won the xG battle in 7 successive home Championship matches. This run goes back to 9th November and a 2-0 defeat to Bristol City. If this holds and Norwich dominate the xG count again then they look to have the firepower to finish those chances at the moment.
Lincoln thought they had turned a corner after achieving back-to-back wins following a 6-match winless run, of which 5 ended in defeat.
However, they’ve since lost at home to Blackpool and drew away at Wigan, both opponents being in the bottom half of the table. Although a home match with bottom of the table Cambridge may appear the perfect bounce back spot, the U’s have picked up recently. Garry Monk’s outfit have lost only once in 4, taking points and scoring against Wycombe, Bolton and Mansfield in the process.
United have also found the back of the net in 5 of their previous 6 away matches in league and cup. During that run, they recorded 2 goals in an away draw at Wrexham, and only 3 clubs have scored 2 or more at that ground all season in league action. Wins continue to be hard to come by for Cambridge, however there is no doubt they are picking up. The 1-1 home draw with Wycombe, who are 2nd, on Saturday demonstrates this. They also won the xG on the day, 1.33-0.70.
Lincoln have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 in all competitions, so Cambridge certainly won’t be too fearful of their opponents in that respect. City have also claimed just 4 out of a possible 17 clean sheets versus current bottom half clubs this season. They may well still end up winning this game but it is more likely to be heavier work than the league table might suggest.
Since Nathan Lowe was recalled by Stoke, Walsall have stuttered in League Two – but a stumble is all it is, they haven’t fallen. The Saddlers have won once, drawn once and lost twice in the 4 matches post-Lowe but they continue to create chances in matches and are still top of the league, 7 points clear of Doncaster having played a game less.
In their last 4 games Walsall’s goals scored read 4-0-0-2 with an xG of 3.69 –1.27-0.68-2.69. In the middle 2 matches where they blanked, versus Bradford and Fleetwood, Walsall were off the boil but last weekend they came from 2 down to draw with Salford with a great second half display.
Even with Lowe departed and Jamille Matt injured, Walsall have options in Danny Johnson, Josh Gordon and new signings Ellis Harrison, Levi Amantchi and Ethan Wheatley to play upfront – they are more than capable of carrying a threat to Colchester on Saturday.
Walsall average 1.93 goals per game in League Two this season, they have the highest xG in the league, have had the most shots on target and the 2nd most touches in the opponents’ penalty area. They have scored in 23/28 league games this season.
Colchester have great defensive numbers and have only conceded 10 goals in 14 home games but Walsall have enough quality to break their resolve here.
Despite their endeavours, Morecambe still find themselves inside the League Two relegation zone. They are 3 points behind Tranmere who have won only 2 of their last 15 matches. Morecambe simply don’t have the quality to string a run of wins together to close the gap sufficiently to see them rise above the dotted line.
The Shrimps have claimed just 3 points from the last possible 15 and are placed 18th in the 5-game form table. They are 23rd in the xG table, matching their league position. On Saturday they travel to a Notts County side in good form and well placed for an end-of-season promotion challenge.
Fans of Notts County watched-on on transfer deadline day to see if the club could hold onto top scorer Alassana Jatta. Not only did they keep hold of the striker but they added another talent in Mai Traore who they signed from Fredrikstad in Norway.
It’s an exciting time for the Magpies who are 2nd in the 5-game form table with 13 points from their last possible 15. They have won 7 of their last 9 matches and the good form has taken them to 3rd in the table, into the automatic promotion spots.
Notts County and Morecambe are at different ends of the league table and different ends of the quality scale. Whereas Notts County average 1.61 goals per game, Morecambe average 0.93. Notts County concede 1 goal per game, where Morecambe average 1.59. Morecambe have lost 10 of their 16 away matches this season – Notts County can make that 11 of 17.
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