AC Milan v Lazio
Matchday 34 in Serie A could prove to be the crucial weekend when it comes to the Champions League qualification race. Whilst the title has already been wrapped up and the relegation battle is almost over, it is anyone’s guess as to which teams will be representing Italy in which European competition next season.
AC Milan and Lazio are in two different mindsets when it comes to securing a place in the top four. The Rossoneri dropped points at home to relegation-threatened Cremonese in midweek and are down to sixth, so they know that they simply must win this game at San Siro against the Biancocelesti.
As for Lazio, they arrested their mini-wobble by beating Sassuolo and moving six points clear of those trying to get into the top four. It is Milan who must seize the initiative at home and do all they can to take the lead.
They are capable of doing that, too. Stefano Pioli made wholesale changes to his team for the Cremonese match and there will be lots of fresh legs on the pitch against Lazio. Maurizio Sarri will not be content to just sit back, though.
He will know that his Lazio team can do serious damage to Milan on the break and with the Rossoneri committing bodies forward, Lazio are sure to get some joy when they break down the other end, making this a potentially thrilling contest.
Ostersunds v Jonkoping Sodra
This could be one of the earliest potential season defining matches in the Swedish second-tier. After five games of the 2023 Superettan season, there are just two sides that remain unbeaten so far and they both meet this weekend as Ostersund take on Jonkopings Sodra.
Off-field financial issues have significantly contributed to the on-field decline of the home team. Last season, they seemed destined for back-to-back relegations but managed to string a few results and performances together in the second-half of the campaign before eventually winning their two-legged relegation playoff.
This time around, though, still under the management of Magnus Powell, they are seeking a return to the Swedish top-flight. They come into this on the back of defeating league leaders, Osters, continuing their fine start to the campaign. They began the season with back-to-back draws against newly-promoted GAIS and then Orebro but have now enjoyed three successive victories, against tough opposition such as the aforementioned Osters and just relegated GIF Sundsvall.
The visitors come into this on the back of an impressive 2-1 win at home to Vasteras, in their most recent outing, last weekend. Jonkopings Sodra have begun this season with two victories and three draws in their opening five matches.
J-Sodra’s games have been of good entertainment value with 16 goals coming in their five matches. Only the current league leaders, Osters, have managed more than their nine goals scored so far this season.
With home advantage, their strong start to the season and an opponent that might be slightly overperforming expectation, Ostersund are favourites to continue their strong start in this one, so feel free to take them at 2.15 to win if you like their chances and want to boost your odds, but I’ll be backing double chance to guard against the draw.
Freiburg v RB Leipzig
The race for European football and the fight against relegation is every bit as exciting as the battle for the Bundesliga title this season and this weekend, Freiburg host RB Leipzig on Saturday with just two points separating the two teams. Sitting fourth, Freiburg occupy the final Champions League place.
Freiburg’s incredible story continues. After qualifying for the Europa League last season, they challenged Bayern Munich for the Meisterschale up until around a month ago but given their minimal budget, qualifying for the Champions League would be the step in their meteoric rise. In Christian Streich, they have one of Europe’s most clued up, and respected coaches – he’s been in his position since 2011 and is key behind their success.
As for RB Leipzig, they booked their place in the DFB Pokal final against Eintracht Frankfurt after beating Saturday’s opponents, Freiburg, 5-1 on Tuesday night. It’s Leipzig’s fourth German Cup final in the last five seasons and after a couple of difficult seasons under Jesse Marsch and Domenico Tedesco, it looks like Marco Rose is the coach to take the club to that next step.
Freiburg have lost just two games at home this season and will make it difficult for Leipzig. They’ve won their last three consecutive games in the Bundesliga and have conceded just 12 goals at home – only Union Berlin have conceded fewer (9). But, Leipzig have won five of their last six games and are improving with each passing game. If they’re able to keep most of the squad together, they could well be in contention for their first Bundesliga title next season.
One player Leipzig will have to keep an eye on is Dani Olmo. The Spaniard registered three assists and found the net in the opening 45 minutes against Freiburg on Tuesday night. Together with Christopher Nkunku and Dominik Szoboszlai, the trio behind Timo Werner is arguably one of the most exciting attacks in the Bundesliga. Only Borussia Dortmund (67) and Bayern Munich (81) have scored more than Leipzig (54) after 30 games.
Freiburg haven’t beaten Leipzig in their last six games and lost heavily in their two previous meetings this season. Nkunku has returned from injury and is scoring again and it’s difficult to see Freiburg’s defence, as excellent as it is at home, containing Leipzig this weekend. For that, I think Leipzig will win quite comfortably and move into the final Champions League place.
Manchester City v Leeds United
The games just keep on coming and we’re off to the Etihad Stadium for this selection. It’s a 5 star rated bet too so I’ve high hopes for another winner. City were in action on Tuesday night and they won at a canter, brushing aside West Ham in a 3-0 win. Erling Haaland struck home his 35th goal of the season in the Premier League to break Alan Shearer and Andy Cole’s record of 34. It’s been a record breaking campaign for the Norwegian as the unstoppable machine just keeps on scoring!
The visitors, Leeds, have brought in Sam Allardyce as their new manager in a last ditch attempt to avoid relegation. They’ve been in woeful form and there’s no worse place to start than Man City away from home. In their previous fixture they were thumped by Bournemouth by four goals to one and they’re leaking goals at a seriously alarming rate!
City are in supreme form right now and this fixture provides another ideal opportunity of three more points. The Sky Blues have won their last nine PL games in a row, scoring a huge 27 times in the process. This averages out at exactly three GpG within this time and they’ll be all guns blazing once more. Kevin De Bruyne seems to be their only potential injury doubt but there’s a plethora of talent who can step up.
Julian Alvarez has stepped up in the last week or so and may be given the nod once more. The Argentinian notched in the win at Fulham last weekend and has racked up 4 shots on target in his last 2 appearances.
The selection of City win and over 2.5 goals has now returned a winner in six games in a row! I’m fully expecting we will have an excellent run for our money with the home side in such fine form. Leeds arrive here on the back of four defeats in their last five and face a mammoth task.
Only one clean sheet has been attained all season long on the road and their defensive woes are set to continue! Something they could well do is to score one themselves, which may go a long way in guiding our pick to victory. Interestingly the Whites have bagged in each of their last five PL games, despite picking up a single point in the process!
Goals have been the theme for both teams in recent games but this one is set to be one way traffic. The home side will hope to be out of the blocks and have the game done and dusted early due to their Champions League Semi Final next week.
The formbook points to a comfortable home win here as City make their final push to secure the title. Back this one with confidence and I fancy us to have another winner.
Bournemouth v Chelsea
Bournemouth welcome Chelsea to the Vitality Stadium and it’s a team in form up against one that cannot stop losing! The Cherries have steered clear of the relegation zone in recent weeks and at least one point here will all but confirm their survival. They were last in action against Leeds, beating them by four goals to one courtesy of goals from Solanke, Semenyo and a rare brace from Lerma! They’ve picked up four wins in their last five in the PL and they’ll fancy their chances again here.
In opposition are Chelsea who are simply ready for their season to end! It’s been a shocking campaign and they’ve put in some toothless performances of late. It was always going to be a tough ask away to Arsenal during the midweek but again they were second best by a mile! It was a three goals to one loss at the Emirates but at least they did manage to get on the scoresheet. Something they have only managed to do in two of their previous six in the PL.
This seems to be a fantastic value play at the price as it enables us to get the draw on-side as well as a Bournemouth win. The Cherries have had a reasonable home campaign securing 22 points in process (W6, D4 & L7). This means they’ve avoided defeat in 58.82% of their fixtures on home soil. Now, taking into account their opposition who’ve lost five of their last six in the PL, this is undoubtedly the percentage play.
Another stat worth noting is that Chelsea have only four wins on the road all season, equating to a 25% win rate. This is way below their expected standard but the numbers don’t lie! What’s even more appealing about our pick is the fact the away side’s good form has been over a sustained period of time. This boosts my confidence and I believe the home side have every chance of coming away from this game with at least a point.
Phillip Billing and Dominic Solanke have been the men doing the business in front of goal for Bournemouth this season. The Danish international is the clubs leading scorer on seven goals and the English striker has six to his name. Both will fancy their chances against an opponent that have kept just two clean sheets in twelve. Chelsea have plenty of talent in their ranks but something they certainly don’t appear to be is a ‘team’.
Since the arrival of Frank Lampard as manager, the club have lost every single fixture! The starting eleven has been tinkered with severely in the hope of a change of form but nothing seems to be working for the London outfit. As I touched on earlier, they’ve been in shocking form and its now nine games without a win in all competitions. They’ve only found the back of the net on four occasions in this time, giving them a 0.44 GpG record.
This value play is well worth a punt at these odds, so, back Bournemouth Double Chance in the hope we’ll see Chelsea drop even more points!
Alloa v Dunfermline
There is not a single game in League One that has anything tangible to play for on Saturday, yet one of the reasons that Dunfermline have gone strong towards the end of the season has been the ability of manager James McPake to motivate his side. Targets have been set internally and pasted around the changing room, and with the club-record undefeated run still going, expect the Pars to treat Saturday’s trip to Alloa with at least some degree of severity.
Changes may well be made in the visitors’ team to allow some fringe players the opportunity to impress at the end of the season, but alterations were made last weekend, too, and they were able to get the better of a motivated Clyde team. Dunfermline showcased the depth in their squad and will expect to do so again at the home of the Wasps.
Alloa, meanwhile, will have their focus on the playoff in midweek. Indeed, it is entirely arguable that finishing fourth in the league will actually provide an easier post-season route than overtaking Airdrie to go third. Brian Rice’s side will likely be up against full-time opponents if they go into the playoffs, and in this scenario a part-time team will find it difficult to last four games. As a result, expect them to rotate heavily for this match and leave out any players carrying niggles.
The Wasps have struggled at home of late in any case, losing all of their last three, so it would be a big surprise if they were to add to their 10 home league wins in this clash.
Bonnyrigg Rose v Elgin
This clash between ninth and eighth in League Two means far more to the home side than it does to their guests, yet a share of the points would be enough to satisfy both as it would equate to Bonnyrigg’s survival in what has been a competitive first season in the SPFL for the Rose. Defeat would leave them open to the mercy of Albion Rovers’ result – a scenario they will wish to avoid.
Robbie Horn’s home side have finished the season well. In their last 13 matches, they have only suffered four defeats, and three of these were at the hands of the leading two sides. They have achieved this largely thanks to their solid defensive work, which has seen them concede more than a single goal in a game only of three occasions in this run (all against the top two).
Elgin, meanwhile, will be in a relaxed mood after securing their survival last weekend thanks to a 1-0 home win over a Dumbarton side with nothing to play for. A change of management has done the trick but has not improved their woeful away form, which has seen them lose six of their last seven road trips – including twice against struggling Albion Rovers.
Given the home side will be ultra-motivated to take something from this game, and Bonnyrigg also picked up a 1-0 win when the sides last met in early March, the New Dundas Park side should be favoured. With a draw suiting both teams, hedge your bets by backing Bonnyrigg to avoid defeat.
Santa Clara v Gil Vicente
Three matchdays remain in the 2022/23 Primeira Liga season, and it’s safe to say that no team has improved more than Arouca – having narrowly avoided relegation on the penultimate day of the season, Arouca currently sit fifth in the Primeira and look set to return to European competition. On the other hand, the two teams who have declined the most are Gil Vicente and Santa Clara.
Santa Clara would finish sixth in 2020/21 to secure a first-ever European qualification, before following that up with a seventh-place finish. Today, they sit bottom of the table with 16 points, four behind Pacos de Ferreira, six behind Maritimo, and 12 away from automatic safety.
They snapped a nine-game losing streak by drawing 1-1 to Chaves, only to follow that up with a 3-0 defeat at Estoril Praia, and they are all but guaranteed to return to the second division for the first time since 2017/18. Gil Vicente finished fifth last season to secure a first-ever European qualification, but like Santa Clara, they fell in the European Conference League play-offs.
Both teams suffered major departures in the summer, Santa Clara selling Lincoln and Hidemasa Morita to Fenerbahce and Sporting, whilst Gil lost midfield metronome Pedrinho to Ankaragucu and Brazilian winger Samuel Lino to Atletico Madrid (loaned to Valencia) and manager Ricardo Soares.
Their replacement manager Ivo Vieira lasted until November 2 before getting the boot, with Daniel Sousa taking charge and leading them to an impressive run of form that allowed them to have considerable breathing room above the relegation zone heading into the home stretch of the season.
Gil opened March with a 2-0 win against Maritimo before losing 2-1 to Rio Ave, 1-0 at Estoril Praia, drawing 0-0 to Sporting and Chaves, losing 1-0 at Braga and Portimonense before suffering a 2-0 defeat at home against Benfica.
Apart from their 2-1 defeat in Vila de Conde, which would see Gil pull one back in the 61st minute via an own goal from Fabio Ronaldo shortly after Amine Oudrhiri was sent off for the hosts, all of Gil’s fixtures since the start of March have featured less than 2.5 goals.
That match on March 12 was also the last time that the Gillistas found the back of the net. Santa Clara, on the other hand, have scored just twice in that same timespan, and they are the only Primeira side who have not reached 20 points or 20 goals thus far.
I’m expecting a fairly low-scoring fixture in the Azores between one side who is all but relegated and another that is going to avoid the drop by a comfortable margin.
Austria Lustenau v SV Ried
It’s top versus bottom in the Austrian Bundesliga Relegation Round, but despite Lustenau leading the way, their form against strugglers Ried leaves an outright result looking more hopeful than likely.
The hosts have won 5 of their last 7 games to rocket up the table, and in the likes of Anderson and Lukas Fridrikas they can finally say they have some reliable goal scorers. Their form in front of goal has improved drastically since dropping into the lower half of the league, and against the weaker defences in Austria they are having fun, with even defenders like Adriel and Darijo Grujcic getting themselves on the scoresheet.
After scoring freely in last week’s 4-4 thriller against the same opponents, we can’t see Lustenau drawing a blank this time, yet they haven’t managed an outright win against Ried in three attempts this season, hence the 2.3 odds on what might seem to be an expected victory.
Ried exploited the occasional issues in Lustenau’s defence last week, and bagged themselves some much-needed confidence in the attacking department. Despite sitting bottom of the pile and having won just once in 15 games, the Upper Austrians have found the net in their last 5 matches, chalking up 3 draws from their last 3.
Loanee Christoph Lang is having a useful influence in the team’s attacks, Seifeddin Chabbi is pulling his weight in the absence of Stefan Nutz, and the tall defender Tin Plavotic is getting forward for goals here and there, too. Ried also have more penalties in the league this season than any other team bar Klagenfurt, so we expect them to challenge Lustenau by scoring at least once again on Saturday.
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