Bundesliga Betting Tips

I think Dortmund will win quite comfortably here, they’ve won both of their home games in the Bundesliga to nil and beat Werder Bremen home and away last season - with Guirassy scoring in both games.

Guirassy has always been a bit disrespected when it comes to people discussing top level strikers, he’s never quite in that conversation but has shown remarkable consistency for Dortmund in his two seasons at the club.

Guirassy has come away with a 20+ haul in both of his seasons at Dortmund, also hitting 30 goals in his final season at Stuttgart. He’s already scored twice in the Bundesliga this season, and also netted a brace in the Champions League against Villarreal.

He also carried his strong form in the early stages of the season into the international break, netting what proved to be the winner against Kenya and taking the most shots of any player (4).

Guirassy’s underlying numbers are also positive with the striker taking 13 shots across his four starts in the Bundesliga (3.43 per 90), seeing seven of these attempts find the target (1.85 per 90). 

Only Harry Kane (62) has scored more goals in the Bundesliga over the last two seasons than Guirassy (41). Some bookies have Guirassy as short as 1.4 to score in this game, 1.72 is an appealing price with his record at the start of the season.

It’s going to be very tough for any side to visit the London Stadium and leave with anything of note this season, West Ham have grown into the season after a tough start and look well placed to pick up all three points as Championship action returns.

West Ham lost their opening home game of the campaign against Charlton, but have won their three games in front of their own fans since. They’ve scored 14 goals across these games, which is unsurprisingly one of the highest tallies at home in the Championship - only Southampton (15) have scored more goals at home than West Ham so far.

QPR are yet to lose on the road in the Championship this term, but this looks like a very uphill battle for Julien Stephan’s side - who only managed to win one of their last five games prior to the international break. This is easily QPR’s more difficult away assignment of the season so far, and I think we’ll see West Ham get back to winning ways following a lengthy international break.

Dortmund were in brilliant form before the international break, winning each of their last six games - notably winning three of these games to nil.

Dortmund have a perfect record at home so far this season too having won both of their games at the Signal Iduna against Paderborn and Hamburg, keeping clean sheets in both of these matches.

They take on a Werder Bremen side who were more relieved to see the international break having failed to win either of their two away games in the Bundesliga this term, conceding five goals across these games.

Werder Bremen also have a pretty poor record away at Dortmund, as most sides in the Bundesliga do, having won just two of the 16 meetings between the teams at the Signal Iduna. They lost 3-0 in this fixture last season, facing an xG of 2.42 while only producing 0.52 xG from six shots themselves.

Bayern Munich have started the season as you’d expect in the Bundesliga, winning three of their opening four matches and netting more goals than any other side in the process (14).

That scoring power jumps off the page straight away, but what is more impressive for Vincent Kompany’s side is the fact that they’ve only conceded two goals across these games. Schalke were the only side to hold them to a draw so far this season, which was a game that Bayern should have won when looking at the underlying numbers. 

Bayern Munich beat Augsburg 3-2 on the road last season, posting an xG of 4.24 as they outscored the home side - who did quite well to score twice with an xG of just 0.51 from three efforts on target. 

Bayern have actually managed to win on each of their last four trips to Augsburg, so it’s clearly a trip they enjoy and their current form makes it really hard to make a case for the home side despite their decent start to the campaign.

York have settled in really well to the EFL in front of their own fans, winning all four of their home games at the start of this season - netting 12 goals across these games and conceding just three.

York have scored more goals at home than any other side in League Two this season, with only four sides in the division boasting a better defensive record than the newly promoted side. 

They recorded a convincing home victory against Gillingham last time out, coming away 3-0 winners with an xG of 2.21 from 17 shots while the away side couldn’t even muster an effort on target from the six shots they had in the contest.

Northampton have lost each of their last three games ahead of this clash, and sit just one point above the drop zone in the early stages of the campaign - winning just one of their opening seven games. 

They haven’t won an away game this season, and have only scored one goal across their three assignments - making it hard to make a case for them to score here.

Lille have enjoyed a fairly strong start to the season having won three of their opening five games, netting eight goals in the process.

They’ve avoided defeat across their two home games, beating Troyes in a comfortable 2-0 victory after holding PSG to a 2-2 draw in a game that Lille could have got even more out of when looking over the underlying numbers.

Lille only lost four of their 17 home games in Ligue 1 last season, finishing third behind the two main title challengers in PSG and Lens. They found these sorts of games fairly routine last season, avoiding defeat against Le Havre both home and away.

Le Havre are yet to win a game in Ligue 1 this season having lost three of their opening five games. They’ve only scored four goals across these games, which is a real concern as that is the second lowest tally in the division across the opening five matches.

Furthermore, Le Havre will crucially be without starting goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi-Nzau who has had to make more saves than any other keeper so far (19), boasting a goals  prevented tally of 1.50.

Chelsea’s defensive issues are quite deep rooted, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 21 Premier League matches - stretching all the way back to a shut out against Brentford back in Liam Rosenior’s brief tenure.

Xabi Alonso’s side faced a sobering 3-0 defeat at Brentford just before the international break, which was a result that highlighted the lack of balance and defensive rigidity of the squad. They’ve seen BTTS in their other four Premier League games, conceding 12 goals across these matches: no side has conceded more goals in the Premier League than Chelsea this season.

Bournemouth are one of only three sides in the Premier League yet to register a win domestically, but they have drawn three of their five matches and have found the back of the net in all but one of their games - with that blank coming against Liverpool just before the international break.

This is usually a very entertaining game, each of the last three clashes between the sides at Stamford Bridge has seen BTTS with the meeting last year ending 2-2 with both sides posting healthy xG numbers (2.31-3.14).