Today's Bet Builder Tips

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been a reliable source of shots on target for Leeds this season, and this leg backs him to find one again against Tottenham.

He faces a Spurs defence that has been breached regularly in recent weeks, and Calvert-Lewin remains Leeds' focal point in attack.

Mohammed Kudus draws plenty of fouls for Tottenham and has won more fouls than any other Spurs player this season.

Leeds have been undisciplined in recent games, and Kudus' direct running should see him fouled again here.

Mateus Fernandes has been getting forward regularly for Tottenham and has been a consistent shot-taker from midfield this season.

Leeds have shown they can be opened up through the middle, which should give Fernandes the platform to get an effort away.

Both sides have been involved in corner-heavy games this season, and this fixture looks set to follow that pattern.

With Tottenham likely to see plenty of the ball and Leeds committed going forward, 8.5 corners should be beaten comfortably.

This has landed in all four of Hull’s away games in the Premier League so far this season:

4 cards v Coventry

5 cards v Chelsea

5 cards v Newcastle

2 cards v Fulham

No side has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League than Hull (2.78 per game), only failing to pick up a card in one of their nine games - which was against a Brentford side who rank in the bottom half of the table for cards against.

Arsenal have drawn the joint most cards of any side in the Premier League, alongside Aston Villa and Chelsea (3.22 per game).

Mikel Arteta’s side have also drawn more fouls than any other side in the Premier League (15.78 per game), so this looks like the perfect matchup for the away side to pick up at least two cards.

Arsenal are averaging 5.4 corners per game in the Premier League this season, with that figure rising steeply to 6.8 when playing at home. They are one of the best teams in the league at dominating possession and sustaining pressure on their opponents, and Hull don’t quite have the personnel to break that press consistently.

The Tigers have been no stranger to a low block this season, and they are averaging just 37% possession in the league. Because of that, Hull have conceded an average of 6.1 corners per game. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that figure rise even more after the weekend.

Martin Odegaard has started this season in excellent form, and he has emerged as a crucial player for the Gunners in the final third, as they will be missing some regular starters this weekend. Bukayo Saka is the most notable absentee, while Eberechi Eze is doubtful to feature.

Odegaard failed to register a shot against Liverpool at Anfield last time out, but this matchup should be considerably easier, and Odegaard typically has more success going forward at the Emirates Stadium. In fact, the Norwegian international is averaging 2.85 shots per 90 at home this season, compared to just 0.98 shots per 90 away, and he has landed this selection in all five home starts.

Oli McBurnie looks set to lead the line for Hull this weekend, and he is going to be incredibly isolated at times. However, this is the kind of matchup which the Scottish international seems to really look forward to. McBurnie is an incredibly physical centre forward - he likes using his body and getting up to contest aerial duels, which means Hull often look to play to him at every available opportunity.

McBurnie is averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 in the Premier League, and he has landed this selection in all nine starts. That includes three fouls drawn against Chelsea, and two against Man United.

Gabriel Magalhaes will be primarily tasked with trying to contain the Hull striker, and that is a matchup to keep an eye on. The Brazilian centre back isn’t one to shy away from a physical contest, and he is averaging 0.78 fouls per 90 in the league this season. While that figure is nothing to write home about, Gabriel has recorded a foul in six of his nine starts. He failed to land this bet against Liverpool and Chelsea.

Interestingly, Gabriel seems to land this selection in matchups where Arsenal will dominate possession - he is given more freedom in those games to be aggressive and step out of the back line to win the ball back quickly.

If you look at City’s shot numbers over the last few seasons, you realise just how reliant they are on Erling Haaland as a goal threat.

He’s had 16 shots on target in the Premier League this season (1.80 per 90), which accounts for 32% of the total shots on target that City have managed in the top flight and is at least 10 more than any other City player.

It’s almost a lottery trying to pick out another City player for a shot on target, or even a goal contribution, as outside of Haaland there isn’t really a consistent figure.

This bet is always live with Haaland, he can be really quiet in games and then quickly have two great chances and has had a shot on target in all four of his away games this season - managing multiple shots on target in two of these games.

The data says that Forest have been unlucky, but watching Oliver Glasner’s icy press conference last week would suggest that there are deeper issues behind the scenes. They’ve failed to win any of their last five matches, losing four of them.

Elliot Anderson is almost always a target for opposition sides to bring down due to how good he is at splitting lines with his passing range, and that should be even more exaggerated here as he lines up against his former club.

Anderson has won more fouls than any other player on the pitch here (28 - 3.61 per 90). He’s out on his own in that regard too, James McAtee is the second most fouled player set to line up at the City Ground and he has won 13 fewer fouls than Anderson in the Premier League this season.

This has landed in each of Anderson’s last five Premier League matches, and he was also fouled twice in the Champions League during the week against Leipzig.

He’s been fouled in all four of City’s away matches, winning 3+ fouls in three of these games - even being fouled 8 (!) times against Liverpool a few weeks ago.

Jair Cunha didn’t really feature much for Forest last season, but has earned a more consistent role in the side under Oliver Glasner as the right sided centre back in his 3-4-3 shape.

Cunha has committed eight fouls across his seven starts in the Premier League this term (1.15 per 90), which isn’t one of the standout figures in the Forest squad but a quick glance at his heat map would suggest that he will be in a lot of duels with Jeremy Doku here.

Alongside Anderson, Doku is one of the best players in the Premier League when it comes to dribbles and winning fouls.

He’s only started three games in the Premier League and has won 13 fouls (3.82 per 90), also maintaining an average of 3.08 fouls won per 90 across 19 starts in the top flight last season.

Oliver Glasner’s spell at Nottm Forest hasn’t quite gone to plan so far, but there aren’t many players that have benefitted more from the change of system than Neco Williams - who is perfect as one of Glasner’s wingbacks in a 3-4-3.

Williams can play on either side, but Glasner has used him on the left most of the time which is beneficial when backing him for shots as he can come inside on his stronger right foot.

Williams has taken 12 shots across his nine starts in the Premier League this season (1.34 per 90), and has notably had at least one shot in each of Forest’s last two home games against Coventry and Arsenal.

Williams also had a shot in this fixture last season, finding the target from distance despite playing in a deeper role in that game as a left back. He’s pretty consistent with shots too, only two Forest players had more attempts in the Premier League than Williams last season (1.29 per 90).

Mathys Tel is improving every week under Roberto De Zerbi, and had a bit of a breakthrough game against Chelsea a few weeks ago in Tottenham’s most recent away game.

Tel has always been a superb finisher. That was evident when he was at Bayern, where he played as a striker most of the time, but his confidence took a real hit last season so we didn’t see that side of his game as much.

He scored a brilliant goal against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge to secure Tottenham’s first win at the stadium in nearly 40 years. It wasn’t just the goal either, Tel looked dangerous throughout the game and notably had 11 touches in the opposition box.

I can see Tel continuing to improve under De Zerbi and have chances here. He scored four goals across 13 starts in the Premier League last season, which is far from an awful return, and has taken 13 shots already (2.67 per 90).

Only Dominic Calvert-Lewin has had more shots (16) and more shots on target (9) for Leeds this season than Jayden Bogle.

He’s been really underrated this season, and has adapted really well to a right wingback role under Daniel Farke which allows him to get forward more often.

He’s had at least one shot in three of his four home games for Leeds, managing multiple shots in two of these games.

He also notably managed at least two touches in the opposition box in all four matches, showing that he is getting into those dangerous areas for Leeds.

Bogle has also managed to find the target in two of his four home games, managing two shots on target in Leeds’ 4-1 win over Newcastle a few weeks ago.

Tottenham have won more corners than any other side in the Premier League this season (7.89 per game), and Van Hecke has been a decent shot threat from those situations.

He scored against Palace last time out from five shots, which is ridiculously high for a centre back. Palace did drop down to 10 men, inflating Tottenham’s corner count and general dominance - but Van Hecke has been pretty consistent with shots outside of that game.

He’s had a shot in five of his nine Premier League appearances this term and also sees more of the ball than any other Tottenham player. He’s so comfortable on the ball that he is more than willing to step into advanced areas, also opening up an avenue for Van Hecke to shoot from distance.

After a positive start to the season, Newcastle’s form has dipped in recent weeks, and they are in the middle of a rough patch of form. The Magpies were beaten 1-0 by Everton last weekend, after being dumped out of the EFL Cup by the same opponent just before that. Newcastle were comprehensively beaten in both of those games.

Fulham should be able to cause problems in the final third, and they are averaging 6.6 corners per game across all competitions this season. That figure rises to an eye--catching 7.5 at Craven Cottage, where Fulham have landed this selection in five of their six matches overall.

Fulham’s results have been a mixed bag, but Alvaro Arbeloa deserves perhaps more credit for the job he has done since succeeding Marco Silva. The Cottagers play front-footed football, but they have only been let down at times by poor finishing.

Newcastle have the worst disciplinary record in the Premier League so far, and they are again expected to have a lot of defensive work to get through this weekend. Matthias Jaissle’s men were shown four yellow cards and a red against Everton last time out, meaning this selection has landed in each of their last four matches across all competitions.

Josh King has been instrumental in the final third for Fulham this season, operating in an advanced midfield position. He is averaging 2.49 shots per 90 across all competitions this term, rising to 2.9 when playing at Craven Cottage. King plays with much more confidence in front of a home crowd, and he has landed this selection in all four starts. Both of his goals this season have been scored at home, too.

This looks like a positive matchup for the 19-year-old, against a Newcastle side still licking their wounds after back-to-back defeats. They conceded 27 shots across those games, with ten of those on target, highlighting how they have leaked chances defensively.

Joelinton hobbled off towards the end of the game last week, and his replacement Jacob Ramsey was shown a red card. That leaves Newcastle a bit light on midfield options, so there is a big responsibility on the shoulders of Nico Gonzalez. He is likely to partner Joe Willock in the double pivot - the Englishman is a lot more attack-minded.

That will give Nico Gonzalez a greater defensive burden to carry, and the former Man City man is averaging 2.81 fouls per 90 since arriving at St James’ Park. He has landed this selection in seven of his nine starts, and been carded in three of those, which shows just how strong his tackles tend to be.

No player in this Newcastle squad has drawn more fouls than Lewis Hall this season, with the 22-year-old landing this bet in seven of his last eleven starts across all competitions. Despite being listed as a left back on paper, Hall is influential when the Magpies get on the ball - he often looks to invert centrally into midfield areas, and link with Harvey Barnes going forward.

Hall is adept at using his body to win soft free-kicks and allow Newcastle to establish themselves on the ball, and he has suffered ten fouls in his last three starts alone. He should find duels against Timothy Castagne this weekend, who is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90.

Liam Delap has found it quite tough leading the line for Forest this season, he doesn’t look that different to the player we saw at Chelsea.

One of my main issues with Delap for a while has been how obsessed he is with engaging in duels rather than trying to bring others into play.

There’s a few strikers like this, Rasmus Hojlund being another, but it does lead to Delap being a decent player in this market. A good example of this is his battle with O’Shea a few weeks ago, where he literally pulled off O’Shea’s shirt and somehow avoided a caution.

He’s committed 15 fouls across his eight appearances in the Premier League (2.28 per 90), which is more than any other player on the pitch. This has led to Delap picking up two yellow cards.

He’s scored one goal so far this season, which was a long distance effort against Aston Villa and there is clearly still a decent player in there. He’s also lining up against his former club, giving him that extra bit of motivation.

Murillo is one of the most entertaining centre backs to watch in the Premier League with his ability to carry the ball into advanced areas and go on mazy runs.

He’s done this throughout his Forest career, but it’s more exaggerated than ever before now with Murillo playing as the left sided centre back in a back three.

This allows the Brazilian to step forward into advanced areas more often, and he’s accepted this invitation - taking 15 shots across his nine appearances in the Premier League (1.67 per 90).

No centre back in the Premier League has had more shots than Murillo, who also ranks in the 85th percentile for touches in the opposition box per 90 when compared to other centre backs in the division.

He’s had a shot in each of his last five Premier League appearances, also having 2+ shots in each of Forest’s last three home games. He’s found the target in three of his last four matches, and I back him to be a shot threat again here.

Man City have picked up 2+ cards in all four of their away games in the Premier League this season, actually collecting 3+ cards in two of these games - including four against Aston Villa last time out.

There’s quite a few 1v1 duels to keep an eye on here for player cards as well, I’ve already highlighted Delap’s aggression at the top end of the pitch but City have four players who have picked up 2+ cards in the Premier League this season.

City have picked up at least one card in seven of their nine Premier League matches this season, collecting multiple cards in four of these games. They’re clearly more likely to overstep the mark on the road, and I think that trend continues here.

I suspect it may not be pretty, but Rangers should have enough to get the job done and win away at St Mirren on Saturday night.

Derek McInnes’s men come into this clash in fairly good nick, having avoided defeat in their last nine Scottish Premiership matches, claiming top honours in seven of them.

The Gers also booked their place in the Scottish League Cup final with a 1-0 win over Aberdeen at Hampden last weekend.

Notably, Rangers have already beaten St Mirren twice this season, following up a 5-1 victory in the early rounds of the League Cup with a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture.

The Saints made a strong start to the season, but their form has since dipped, losing six of their last eight league matches, the most recent of which was a 1-0 loss away at Motherwell last Saturday.

Craig McLeish’s men have already lost 2-1 at home to Celtic this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rangers win by the same scoreline in Paisley.

Rangers are still a work in progress, but Derek McInnes has already brought a bit more steel to the side.

I expect them to get stuck in against St Mirren on Saturday night, so I’m backing the Light Blues to pick up two or more cards.

Moreover, Rangers have collected an average of 1.82 cards per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Upon closer inspection, it can be seen that the Glasgow heavyweights have racked up multiple bookings in five of their six top-flight fixtures away from Ibrox this term.

I think there’s plenty of scope for that trend to continue against a St Mirren team who have been among the Scottish Premiership’s most ill-disciplined this season and will look to drag Rangers into a battle.

It’s also worth pointing out that five of the Saints’ last six top-flight opponents have been shown 2 or more cards.

Adding weight to the case is the fact that Rangers picked up 2 cards to St Mirren’s 1 when the pair met at Ibrox in the Scottish League Cup earlier this season.

Kevin Kelsy has settled in at Rangers in no time and has quickly established himself as a key player, which is why I’m keen to back him for a goal or assist.

The powerful Venezuelan forward has scored 4 goals across his first seven Scottish Premiership appearances, with 3 of those coming in his last two outings.

What’s more, he scored one and set up another during Rangers’ 3-0 win over Celtic in the Scottish League Cup back in September.

Kelsy looks the sort of striker who only needs one chance, and he’ll fancy his chances of scoring against a St Mirren side that have been far from watertight this season.

The Saints have kept just 1 clean sheet in six home league games this season and have shipped 2 or more goals in three of their last five on their own patch.

I think James Penrice continues to be overpriced in the shots market, which is why I’m backing the Rangers utility man to have at least one attempt on Saturday night.

Since joining Rangers on loan, Penrice has mainly operated at left-back, where his attack-minded approach has been clear to see.

That is reflected in his average of 1.20 shots per game in the Scottish Premiership this season.

Digging deeper, he has had at least 1 shot in seven of his nine league appearances this term, firing off multiple efforts in three of his last five outings.

Penrice also got 1 shot away against St Mirren in this season’s reverse fixture at Ibrox.

The hosts are conceding just under 15 shots per game and are likely to spend long spells on the back foot, so Penrice should get chances to let fly.

He has also featured in midfield recently and has been known to take set pieces from shooting range.

I’m bitterly disappointed with Wrexham of late. I do think things have fizzled out a bit and Parkinson is in-fact out of his depth, but the owners are reluctant to part ways given their public ‘job for life’ comments.

They did get an excellent result against Middlesbrough in midweek which will have steadied the ship for now, or rather papered over cracks in my opinion.

Wolves are on a really nice run and are undefeated in their last five, winning four of those which included back-to-back away victories.

The metrics are strong for Wolves too. They average 1.70 xG but restrict opponents to just 1.21.

I do feel Lopez is still a touch lightweight and needs to toughen up for this division, but there’s no doubt about his ability and when he plays well, Wolves often get results.

He’s had at least one shot on target in three of his last five games and he’s also netted twice in that run.

His 11 shots on target this season is the most in the Wolves squad and that’s worked out to 0.98 per 90 minutes in the Championship this season.

Wrexham ship just shy of four shots on target per 90 minutes and given that I fancy Wolves for a result here, a Lopez shot on target should tie in nicely.

Now four foul involvements might look like a lot but Bellegarde’s numbers are absolutely off the scale in both fouls committed and fouls drawn.

Bellegarde has come into that number 10 position. He’s a busy bee, very industrious but also tidy on the ball with a sharp turn of pace.

Bellegarde draws an eye-watering average of 4.17 fouls per 90 minutes.

As for fouls committed, he averages 2.08 per 90 minutes. He tops the charts in both metrics for players who have a decent number of minutes.

He’s landed this selection in each of his last three starts.

An interesting element of Bellegarde’s place in the team is that it’s moved Fer Lopez out to the right-hand side.

Lopez is the most fouled player in the Wolves team, drawing 23 this season - an average of 2.05 times per 90 minutes.

Ekomie himself also has the stats to back it up. He’s averaged 1.15 fouls per 90 minutes in the Championship.

He can also play centrally, but on the left he has made five fouls in three starts. 

I’d expect Wolves to have plenty of the game and as mentioned, for Lopez to see plenty of the ball, so it’ll be a tough task for Ekomie.

Real Madrid have been devastatingly efficient in the final third recently, and they should come into this clash full of confidence. They secured a convincing 3-0 win against Racing Santander last weekend, after beating Barcelona 2-1 at the Nou Camp. Los Blancos still have plenty to play for here as they aim to close the gap on their rivals at the top of the table.

Even though Valencia will have home advantage this weekend, it looks like a daunting matchup for them. Los Ches are currently battling in the relegation zone, having won just two of their opening 11 league matches. With 17 goals conceded, they have been far from watertight at the back, which spells danger against a side like Real Madrid.

Guido Rodriguez has been a key contributor to Valencia’s poor disciplinary record this season, and he has 14 fouls committed from just eight starts this campaign. The Argentine international has been booked three times in that stretch, averaging 1.88 fouls per 90.

Last season, Rodriguez had an average of 1.44 fouls per 90 across all competitions, which shows how he has been a lot more intense in his press this term. He didn’t start either game against Real Madrid, but did rack up five fouls against Barcelona at home, which shows how he struggled in tougher matchups. He should find duels against Jude Bellingham in midfield this weekend - the English international is averaging 3.11 fouls drawn per 90 in the league.

Valencia come into this clash as massive underdogs, but if they are to find any success in the final third, Arnaut Danjuma will have to play a considerable role. The former Spurs man is averaging 1.93 shots per 90 in La Liga this term, which is one of the highest figures in the Valencia squad, and he is expected to lead the line. Danjuma will be quite isolated at times, but he has the tools to exploit Madrid’s high line, and the 29-year-old isn’t afraid to try his luck from distance.

Valencia lost 5-0 against Barcelona at home in September, and they managed just three shots as a team, but Danjuma accounted for all three.

When Valencia did break forward, it was Danjuma who they typically looked for. However, it is likely to be one-way traffic for the majority of this contest at the Mestalla. Barcelona recorded 73% possession against Los Ches, carving out 25 shots of which ten hit the target. Valencia are unlikely to be able to keep Los Blancos at bay, and Kylian Mbappe should be licking his lips at the prospect of this matchup.

The Frenchman already has 12 goals from 12 starts in the league this season, but he still has some catching up to do. Raphinha is at 15 goals, so Mbappe will be motivated to close that gap, and this is an excellent matchup to do so.

Johan Manzambi has settled in really well at Aston Villa, and found the target against Barcelona during the week as Unai Emery’s side slumped to a 3-0 defeat.

He’s a natural replacement for Morgan Rogers with many of the same traits that made the now Chelsea man such an effective player in the Premier League last season.

Manzambi has registered five shots on target across his six appearances in the Premier League this season (1.16 per 90). Only Nicolas Jackson (9) has had more shots on target than Manzambi in the Premier League this term, and he’s played two more games.

Manzambi has had a shot on target in both of his Premier League appearances in away games for Aston Villa this season - managing two efforts on target in the win over Tottenham.

You could see the relief and passion on Fernandes’ face as Man Utd came from 2-0 down to beat Roma 3-2 in the Champions League during the week.

Fernandes was as involved as he always is, taking four shots and scoring from the penalty spot as well as registering an assist and picking up a yellow card.

Man Utd are still in a bit of a mess, but that result will definitely help to lift spirits and Fernandes showed in that comeback exactly why he is so crucial to Man Utd.

Only Bryan Mbeumo (27) has had more shots in the Premier League than Fernandes (25 - 3.13 per 90). He’s quite careless with his efforts, often taking aim when there are better options available.

That’s a trend that exists across the United squad as well, they’ve had the most shots of any side in the Premier League (18.56 per game).

You’re probably tired of me defending Senne Lammens, but he’s constantly being asked to do the impossible in this United side and would be seen in a different light with a competent defensive set up in front of him.

Only three keepers in the Premier League have been called into action more often than Lammens this season, with the Belgian having to make 30 saves across just nine matches (3.33 per 90).

He’s made at least one save in all nine of his Premier League appearances this season, having to make multiple stops in seven of those games.

The only games where he wasn’t forced into at least two saves were against Bournemouth, who scored three from four shots on target, and Man City, who had a man sent off early on.

Aston Villa have the attacking threats to test Lammens, namely Jackson and Manzambi who will almost certainly find space in transition with how unorganised Man Utd’s backline is.

I can’t see this game being tight, Man Utd’s 3-2 comeback win over Roma was a good snapshot into how their games have generally been this season.

The attacking setup is not too bad at Man Utd, with individual quality like Fernandes, Mbeumo, Cunha and Amad - you’re always going to be able to produce individual moments of quality.

It’s at the other end where there are more alarming issues, only six sides have conceded more goals than Man Utd in the Premier League this season (1.67 per game), and it seems to get worse at Old Trafford - they’ve only kept one clean sheet at home across all competitions (v Sabah).

Ipswich, Roma, Bournemouth and Brighton have all scored at least twice at Old Trafford this season, and only five sides have faced a greater xG conceded than Carrick’s side.

One of those sides is Aston Villa, who have conceded 13 goals from an xG conceded of 15.1. They’ve seen 3+ goals in each of their last two away matches, and in four of their last five more widely.

Como are on some run at the moment.

They’ve won each of their last six matches, netting 22 goals in the process.

Cesc Fabregas’ side put nine goals past Lens in the Champions League during the week, highlighting just how much confidence this young and talented side are playing with at the moment.

I don’t think they’ll be phased by the trip to face Inter Milan, which is admittedly the toughest assignment for any side in the division, and we only need them to score once.

Inter’s underlying attacking numbers are really positive, but there are clear defensive issues. Five sides in Serie A have conceded fewer goals than Inter this season, and they’ve only kept three clean sheets across their 10 matches (30%).

Fiorentina, Club Brugge, Udinese and Monza have all scored against Inter at home this season. Como enter this game with real confidence, and have enough players firing to score at least once.

I’m also keen to back Como to earn at least four corners during this contest.

The Blue and Whites are very attack-minded and excellent at retaining possession, which naturally sees them rack up plenty of corners.

That is underlined by the fact that Como have averaged 7.10 corners per game in Serie A this season, the second-highest tally in the division and only bettered by Juventus.

Upon closer inspection, Como have cleared the over 3.5 corners hurdle in each of their 10 league matches this season, as well as during their demolition of Lens in the Champions League in midweek.

While Inter do not tend to concede too many corners, they have had to defend 4 or more in each of their four Champions League games this season, including home matches against Club Brugge and Shakhtar Donetsk.

It’s also worth pointing out that Napoli forced 5 flag kicks against Inter at the San Siro earlier this season.

Nicolo Barella is a player I’ve had success with in the foul markets in recent weeks, and I’m keen to back the Inter Milan midfielder to commit at least one foul against Como on Sunday.

The Italian international was in the thick of the action during last week’s Milan derby, when he was penalised on 3 occasions.

That means Barella has now committed at least 1 foul in each of his last four Serie A outings, taking his overall average for the season to 1.08 per game.

Even more encouraging is the fact that he was guilty of 5 offences during Inter’s 3-0 win away at Feyenoord in the Champions League earlier this week.

I expect Barella’s combative streak to be on show again here against an attack-minded Como side with plenty of pace and flair.

He’s likely to come into close contact with Luis Milla and Nico Paz.

The pair have drawn an average of 1.25 and 1.10 fouls per game respectively in Serie A this season.

Back Nico Paz to be fouled at least once on Sunday evening.

As already mentioned, the classy Como playmaker has drawn an average of 1.10 fouls per game in Serie A this season.

A closer look shows that the Como ace has been fouled 8 times across his six league appearances away from home this term.

Paz has also come in for plenty of close attention in the Champions League.

He’s won at least 1 free kick in all four of his appearances and 2 or more in three of them, including against Lens last time out.

Given how influential he is for Como, he is likely to come in for plenty of close attention from Inter’s midfield on Sunday evening.

He could find himself up against the aforementioned Nicolo Barella, who has been committing fouls regularly in recent weeks, as well as Hakan Calhanoglu, who has averaged 1.34 fouls per 90 in Serie A this season.

Scored in 5/5

Most carded Palace player

Improving under Iraola

Chelsea come into this clash in a strong run of form, having won three of their last four league matches, and it finished 2-0 against Man United last time out. The Blues have had a full week to rest and prepare for this fixture against Sunderland, which gives them another advantage. There were 15 corners in their game against Man United last weekend, with Chelsea accounting for eight of those, meaning they are averaging 5.8 corners per game across all competitions.

Interestingly, that figure actually rises to 6.2 when playing away, where they have landed this selection in each of their last three games on the road.

Xabi Alonso likes his side to play with width, but they have left themselves a bit exposed in midfield at times. Chelsea are averaging exactly 2.0 cards per game in the league this season, rising to 2.75 when playing away where this selection has landed in three of their four games.

Sunderland haven’t been in the best form, but they are still averaging an eye-catching 14.3 fouls drawn per game this season. For context, only Arsenal and Man City have suffered more infringements than the Black Cats. Six of their last eight Premier League opponents have hit this mark, including Arsenal and Bournemouth.

Cole Palmer isn’t the first name who comes to mind when thinking of fouls, but his numbers this season have been impressive. Palmer was sent off against Spurs for two bookable offences, and he already had two yellow cards to his name prior to that sending off.

Palmer has accrued a total of 11 infringements this season, which is more than any other player in the Chelsea squad. He has landed this selection in seven of his nine starts overall, including the last five in a row, which makes this price stand out. Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki have combined for 3.3 fouls drawn per 90 in the league this season, and they should find duels against Palmer here.

Enzo Le Fee is another Sunderland player who has been adept at drawing contact, and he is averaging 1.96 fouls drawn per 90 in the league. The Frenchman has landed this bet in five of his nine league games this term, and this matchup against Chelsea is a favourable one to improve that hit-rate.

Chelsea are likely to dominate possession at the Stadium of Light, but Le Fee is the type of player who can get out of high-pressure situations. He likes having the ball at his feet, and is adept when it comes to beating opposing players - he is perhaps the most press-resistant player for Sunderland, and Le Fee was fouled three times against Man City back in December.

Morgan Rogers has been Chelsea’s most effective player in the final third this season, and he already has five league goals to his name. Rogers scored a wonderful solo goal against Man United last weekend to give his side the lead, and he should come into this clash full of confidence.

The 24-year-old is averaging 2.38 shots per 90 in the league this season, and exactly a third of his efforts have hit the target. Sunderland have conceded 14 goals in their last six league matches, which shows how they haven’t been watertight at the back, so Rogers should be able to find chances in the final third.

Brentford’s form has also been impressive, and they rank sixth in the Premier League. The Bees have only lost once in nine league matches so far, making this a clash between two in-form teams.

Over 2.5 goals has landed in eight out of 12 Brentford games across all competitions, with all four misses finishing on exactly two goals. Their games have been quite open, and the Bees haven’t struggled to find the back of the net. However, their biggest task at the Amex here will be keeping Brighton at bay. With 24 goals scored in just nine Premier League matches, no side has been more efficient in the final third than Fabian Hurzeler’s men.

Michael Oliver is the designated referee for this clash on the south coast, and he is likely to be kept busy - Brighton and Brentford have been two of the most ill-disciplined sides in the Premier League so far.

The Seagulls are averaging 2.4 cards per game this campaign, and they have picked up at least two bookings in seven of their nine matches. When playing at home, this bet has landed in three of their four matches. Brentford have an identical hit-rate when playing away this season, and they have picked up 22 yellows in their nine matches. The Bees have also been shown three red cards, which is a league-high.

With Ferdi Kadioglu still out with injury, Costinha looks set to retain his spot at right back. The Portuguese international is averaging 1.66 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Brighton, and he will be directly up against Kevin Schade this weekend.

The Brentford winger likes to be direct in his play, and look to beat his defender. He is one of the more technical players in the Brentford squad, meaning he typically sees plenty of the ball. Schade is averaging 1.8 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, and he was fouled three times against Nottingham Forest last weekend.

Schade should also find duels against Chema Andres this weekend, when he looks to invert centrally, or even in transitional scenarios. Andres is given a significant defensive responsibility under Hurzeler, and he is averaging 2.53 fouls per 90 across all competitions. This selection has landed in six of his seven appearances overall - the only miss came against Man City, but Andres was shown a yellow card for his first foul, and then withdrawn after 64 minutes.

The Spaniard is also averaging 3.07 tackles per 90 this season, which is the highest in the Brighton squad, which shows just how willing he is to jump into tackles, and he should have plenty of duels to contest this weekend.

Yasin Ayari scored Brighton’s winner at Man City last weekend, so he should come into this clash full of confidence. The Swedish international only managed one shot in that game as the Seagulls were forced to defend deep for large periods, which was the first time he has failed to land this selection all season. Ayari is averaging 2.9 shots per 90 from his nine starts across all competitions this season, and he has been incredibly consistent at landing this selection.

Ayari has already chipped in with three Premier League goals, matching his tally from the previous campaign. Over half of his efforts in the league have come from outside the box, and his confidence should be sky-high.

Barcelona have been the most attack-minded side in the Spanish top flight so far, with 46 goals scored from just 11 games. By contrast, Atletico Madrid boast the strongest defensive statistics, but it seems unlikely that they will be unlikely to keep the Catalans at bay.

Barcelona’s high line has become a staple of their play - they make it so difficult for opponents to progress, but they can at times be caught in transition. Atletico Madrid have the tools to exploit space offered to them in behind, and they should play with confidence on home turf. After losing 2-0 against Bayern Munich midweek, Diego Simeone will demand a reaction from his side at the weekend, and this promises to be an open contest.

Raphinha is currently the top scorer in La Liga with a tally of 15 goals in just ten league appearances. He is three goals above Kylian Mbappe. The Brazilian international is in his prime, and he added another two goals against Aston Villa midweek, as Barcelona cruised to a 3-0 win at the Nou Camp.

Raphinha has 19 goals and three assists this season in just 13 matches across all competitions. Those numbers are incredible, and he has landed this selection in 11 of his 12 starts overall. The only miss came against PSG at the Parc-des-Princes, when Raphinha was substituted after 60 minutes. The 29-year-old scored in both starts against Atletico last season, so he should be looking forward to this matchup.

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona met six times last season - twice in La Liga, twice in the Champions League, and twice in the Copa Del Rey. Joao Cancelo started four of those matches, and he landed this selection every time. He even picked up a booking in the home leg of the Copa Del Rey.

The Portuguese international is much more confident going forward than he is at defending, and he will be up against Giuliano Simeone this weekend. The Argentine winger is averaging 1.68 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions this season, which is one of the highest figures in the Atletico squad.

Ademola Lookman is likely to start on the opposite flank, and he should be looking forward to this matchup. The Nigerian international scored twice against Barcelona last season, and his pace in transition proved to be tough to handle. Lookman hasn’t been given too many opportunities to start this season by Diego Simeone, but this matchup seems to suit him well.

Lookman seems to thrive in tougher matchups when there is space to run in behind, and he even managed to get on the scoresheet against Real Madrid. He had an average of 3.1 shots per 90 across all competitions last season after joining Atletico, rising to 3.8 at the Metropolitano.

I fancy Fiorentina to score at least once against Juventus on Sunday night.

While Paolo Vanoli’s side started the weekend perched precariously above the relegation zone, they have had no issues finding the net this season.

That is underlined by the fact that the Viola have scored in 8 of their opening 10 Serie A matches of the campaign, including 4 of their five fixtures at home.

Across their last three games at the Franchi, they have scored against Napoli, Como and Atalanta, while they also made the net bulge away at Inter Milan.

As such, I think Fiorentina are more than capable of making their mark against a Juventus side facing a quick turnaround after Thursday night’s 2-1 Europa League win away at AZ.

Moreover, the Old Lady have failed to keep a clean sheet in 3 of their last four Serie A away games, conceding against the likes of Sassuolo, Cagliari and Genoa.

Juventus are a team I’ve regularly targeted in the corner markets this season, and I’m keen to back over 9.5 flag kicks when they visit Fiorentina on Sunday night.

Luciano Spalletti’s side have been the corner kings of Serie A this season, averaging a league-high 8.20 corners per game.

That can be attributed to the fact that Juventus’ matches are generating an average of 11.90 corners per game.

In fact, 7 of the visitors’ 10 Serie A games this season have produced at least 10 corners, with the Italian giants reaching double figures on their own in three of them.

As such, I think Juventus are more than capable of doing most of the heavy lifting here, although Fiorentina should contribute too, having averaged 4.90 corners per game this term.

Even more encouraging is the fact that the Viola have racked up 11 corners against Como and 8 against Atalanta across their last two home matches.

Back Nick Woltemade to be fouled at least once on Sunday night.

Woltemade’s towering frame makes him an awkward customer for opposition defences to deal with, which naturally sees him draw contact and win fouls.

Case in point was Juventus’ win over Napoli last weekend, when the German forward was brought down on no fewer than 5 occasions.

That was no one-off, as Woltemade has drawn an average of 3.36 fouls per game in Serie A this season and earned his side three set pieces during his last away start at Lecce.

On top of that, Woltemade has been fouled in each of Juventus’ four Europa League matches this season, winning 2+ free kicks in three of those contests.

He is likely to be drawn into plenty of physical duels with Fiorentina centre-backs Vieri and Radu Dragusin.

Both defenders have been regulars on the referee’s radar in Serie A this season, committing averages of 1.39 and 1.10 fouls per 90 respectively.

I’m keen to back Alieu Njie to attempt at least two shots on Sunday night.

The pacey Fiorentina winger likes to get efforts away whenever openings present themselves, which is reflected in his average of 2.29 shots per game in Serie A this season.

A closer look shows the Swede has had at least 2 attempts in each of Fiorentina’s last three home games, against Napoli, Atalanta and Como, firing off 4 shots against the latter.

He is also likely to come into this clash full of confidence, having scored and provided an assist in each of Fiorentina’s last two Serie A matches.

Juventus could be heavy-legged after their Europa League exertions on Thursday night, so Njie should have opportunities to pull the trigger at least twice when the Turin giants come to town.