Today's Bet Builder Tips

I’m always interested in backing Fernandes for a goal contribution when he’s priced at 2.0 or higher, he’s such an important player for this United side that any positive impact that United have in the final third is rarely without Fernandes being involved.

He’s registered four goal contributions across his six starts in the Premier League this season, unsurprisingly being the Manchester United player with the most goal contributions so far this term. His xG + xA tallies level out at exactly 4.0 as well, so he’s matching the standard of his underlying numbers.

Fernandes was involved in 43% of the total goals that Manchester United scored in the Premier League last season - including breaking the Premier League assist record with 21 in total. Fernandes assisted Casemiro’s goal against Leeds when the sides last met, and I think he will come away with at least one goal contribution here. 

Ethan Ampadu has impressed me in the early stages of this season, he’s matured really well over the last few campaigns and is now a consistent Premier League level midfielder.

He is quite reckless though, committing six fouls across his six starts in the Premier League (1.00 per 90). 

There’s reason to believe that this will rise as well, with Ampadu set to face off against Youri Tielemans - who has won 12 fouls across his six starts in the Premier League (2.33 per 90).

Those six fouls have led to one yellow card for Ethan Ampadu this term, and this is the perfect backdrop for him to collect his second caution of the campaign. 

Ampadu picked up 10 yellow cards across his 35 starts in the Premier League last season, including a yellow card in Leeds’ 2-1 win over United at Old Trafford earlier this year.

I think we’ll see Daniel Farke target Diogo Dalot in some capacity here with the fullback areas looking really weak for United at the moment with Shaw, Mazraoui and Dorgu all set to be sidelined.

This means we are likely to see Dalot play as a makeshift left back, or play his usual role with Ayden Heaven coming in at left back - which was the set up for United’s trip to Atletico Madrid during the week, a game that ended in defeat for Carrick’s side.

Dalot has collected two yellow cards in the Premier League already this season, more than any other United player. He’ll have the tough task of dealing with one of Leeds’ fullbacks, both of whom are really strong when it comes to winning fouls.

Gudmundsson is the shortest player in the market to be fouled here, while Bogle is averaging 1.78 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this term.

Maxim De Cuyper has adapted well this season - he has been featuring in a slightly unfamiliar role on the left wing. The Belgian international has been given more responsibility going forward, which he has benefitted from. De Cuyper scored the opening goal of the game against Sunderland last weekend in a 2-0 win. That was his fourth goal of the campaign. 

In addition to that, De Cuyper has also provided two assists. Despite only featuring for the second-half against Zalgiris midweek, De Cuyper racked up six key passes, including two big chances created, but none of those were converted. Still, he is always looking to make things happen in the final third, and there should be chances for him to contribute against Palace again here.

Luka Vuskovic was another player afforded some rest midweek, as he only featured for the second-half. He recorded one shot which went narrowly over the bar, taking his average to 1.6 shots per 90 across all competitions this season.

Signing Vuskovic over the summer was another bit of shrewd business from the Seagulls. The centre back offers quite a lot in the final third, whether that be from a set-piece or from range. 

Of his ten shots in the Premier League this season, eight have come from set-pieces, while the other two have been from outside the box. When the space opens up, Vuskovic doesn’t hesitate to let fly, and he should be invited forward a fair few times at the Amex this weekend.

With Brighton expected to dominate play on the south coast this weekend, Quentin Timber could be in for a busy afternoon. The Dutchman has started each of the last seven matches for Palace across all competitions, averaging 1.8 fouls per 90 in that time. He has also committed multiple infringements in five of those appearances. 

With that being said, he is still yet to pick up a booking, which shows how a lot of his fouls are quite soft. He presses intensely and tries to close down space as quickly as possible, and Timber accounted for three of Palace’s 11 fouls against Nottingham Forest last weekend.

Chema Andres is another player who is one to target for fouls, and he should be directly up against Timber. The Palace man is also averaging 1.96 fouls drawn per 90. His midfield partner, Adam Wharton is not too far behind with 1.46 fouls drawn per 90, so Chema Andres draws a solid matchup here. 

The Spaniard has played four games since arriving from Stuttgart, and he is averaging 2.79 fouls per 90 as a Brighton player. He has recorded multiple infringements in all four appearances, and has been booked once. He likes to get stuck into duels in midfield, and be strong in his challenges, which makes this price stand out.

I’m expecting a close contest between Bournemouth and Sunderland on Sunday, but I think the visitors are more than capable of scoring at least once.

While Regis Le Bris’ side are not a team you would typically associate with scoring goals, they have blanked in just two of their opening six league games of the season.

Even more encouraging for this selection is that Sunderland have scored in all 3 of their Premier League away games this season, including a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City in their most recent top-flight road trip. 

The Black Cats also made the net bulge twice away at Torreense in the Europa League last time out.

As for Bournemouth, they have made a slow start to the season domestically and begin the weekend in the Premier League relegation zone.

Part of the Cherries’ early-season struggles can be attributed to their failure to keep a clean sheet in any of their six top-flight games so far, shipping five goals away at Chelsea last weekend.

The Black Cats tend to take a safety-first approach and are certainly not afraid to do the dirty work, something that is reflected in their card figures this season.

Indeed, Sunderland have collected an average of 1.83 cards per game across their opening six Premier League matches.

A deeper dive into those numbers shows that Sunderland have been shown at least 2 cards in away games at both Ipswich and Brentford this season.

They also picked up 3 bookings away at Torreense in the Europa League on Thursday.

Bournemouth’s home fixtures offer further support for this selection, with 2 of the 3 Premier League sides to visit the Cherries this season picking up at least 2 bookings and Sturm Graz collecting 3 cards at the Vitality on Thursday night.

Tyler Adams looks too big to ignore when it comes to committing at least two fouls during this contest.

Since being restored to the starting XI, the tough-tackling Bournemouth midfielder has been falling foul of the referee on a regular basis.

In fact, Adams has committed 11 fouls across his four Premier League starts this season.

Notably, 5 of those fouls came away at Chelsea last weekend, with the all-action American also picking up a yellow card.

He is likely to find himself operating in similar areas to Enzo Le Fee, Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki, all of whom have drawn averages north of 1.50 fouls per game for Sunderland in the Premier League this season.

This selection ties in nicely with the Adams foul bet, as I’m also keen to back Granit Xhaka to be fouled at least once.

The Sunderland captain almost always finds himself in the thick of the midfield battle, and Sunday’s clash with Bournemouth should be no different.

The combative Swiss midfielder has a real knack for winning fouls and cheap free kicks, having drawn an average of 2.00 fouls per game in the Premier League this season.

Upon closer inspection, Xhaka has been fouled at least once in all six of his top-flight appearances this term, earning his team multiple set pieces in three of those games.

He is likely to come up against the aforementioned Adams, while Bournemouth’s Lewis Cook is also prone to giving away fouls, further strengthening the case for this selection.

I can see Dominic Calvert-Lewin bullying this fragile United backline here.

He’s been in fine form so far this season, netting three goals across his six starts in the Premier League from 11 shots (1.94 per 90).

That shot record may not jump off the page for a striker, but the data point I’m more focused on is the fact that Calvert-Lewin has found the target seven times from these efforts (64% shot accuracy).

Leeds’ system suits Calvert-Lewin really well, with the wingbacks allowing Leeds to send crosses into their target man. He scored 14 goals in the Premier League last season, averaging 1.12 shots on target per 90.

Calvert-Lewin took five shots when Leeds beat United 2-1 at Old Trafford last season, seeing two of those efforts find the target.

No player has benefitted more form United’s lack of elite striker options than Mbeumo, often starting upfront in place of Sesko, Zirkzee and Cunha.

And even when he does start on the right, he tends to drift into central positions where he can look to get shots away in front of goal.

In the league this season, no United player has scored more than his three, and he tops the clubs rankings for xG and shots taken.

In fact, of his 3.5 shots per 90, 1.3 of them tend to land on target, with 83% of all shots United have taken this season coming from the right and central channels.

Leeds have looked impressive defensively this season, and no team have conceded less goals per 90 than them, only letting in five across their six league matches, keeping two clean sheets along the way.

But what stands out to me is goalkeeper James Trafford is being forced into 4.0 saves a game, the 2nd most in the league, so they concede plenty of chances, too.

Mbeumo started on the bench in their last competitive face-off, but Sesko and Diallo raked up four shots on target between them from positions Mbeumo will likely find himself in.

He’s had six shots on target in his last five, with at least one in each of them, so that’s a trend he’ll be looking to continue here.

Jayden Bogle has been one of the most underrated players in the Premier League so far this season, and is flourishing for Leeds in his right wingback role - that sees him win a decent number of fouls.

Bogle was fouled once against Arsenal last time out, and is usually a target for opposition sides as he acts as one of Leeds’ main outlets to relieve pressure and look to find Calvert-Lewin the box.

Bogle has drawn nine fouls across his six starts in the Premier League this season (1.78 per 90). I’m particularly interested in Bogle’s battle with Diogo Dalot down that side of the pitch.

I’ve never rated Dalot, he’s been at United for far too long and still makes the same mistakes he made a few seasons ago. He’s committed seven fouls across just four starts this season (1.66 per 90) and will be tasked with tracking Bogle when he makes those runs forward to get Leeds up the pitch. 

Elland Road is one of the toughest places to visit in the Premier League. Leeds have the quality and ferocious home support to make this an awkward task for United, who have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.

Most recently, United fell to a 2-0 defeat against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League. Carrick tried a new shape in that game, lining United up in a 4-3-3 but their press was all over the place and Atletico managed to break the deadlock inside one minute - which set the tone for the rest of the game.

Leeds also put in a pretty good account of themselves against the reigning champions away from home last time out - managing five shots on target at the Emirates, which is not a shot volume that Arteta’s side concede regularly.

Leeds avoided defeat against United in both head to head meetings between the sides last season, with this fixture finishing 1-1 thanks to a swift equaliser by Cunha after Aaronsen had opened the scoring a few minutes prior. 

I’ve been really impressed with Fabian Hurzeler’s side so far this season, they sit third in the Premier League - behind only Arsenal and Manchester City - having won four of their opening six games and notably scoring 18 goals in the process.

No side has scored more goals in the Premier League than Brighton this season, with the Seagulls scoring eight of these goals across their three home games. They’ve won two of these matches, including beating Arsenal at the Amex just before the international break.

Hurzeler had the luxury of rotating more extremely for Brighton’s midweek Conference League clash, but Sage had to field a pretty similar lineup to the one that started in Lyon - where Palace lost 3-2. 

That lack of squad depth could be the point of difference between these sides, with Brighton looking really strong at home and Palace conceding 12 goals across their opening six matches of the Premier League season. 

Despite sitting third in the league, Brighton have one of the worst disciplinary records this season. The Seagulls are averaging 12.7 fouls per game, which has translated to 13 yellows and one red in just six matches.

They have landed this selection in five league outings overall, with the only failure coming in a 5-0 drubbing of Coventry. With this being a derby day fixture, it is likely to be more competitive and feisty, which makes cards a target. 

These two might not be the most obvious rivals, but recent fixtures have been intense. In fact, over 3.5 cards has landed in each of the last six head-to-head matchups between Brighton and Crystal Palace.

Jorgen Strand Larsen will be the outlet in the final third for Palace this weekend, and he will have plenty of pressure to absorb when the ball gets to his feet.

Brighton like to press aggressively in midfield in an attempt to win back the ball as quickly as possible. The striker is averaging 1.22 fouls drawn per 90 this season across all competitions, and he has been fouled in six of his seven starts overall.

Strand Larsen had an average of 0.79 fouls drawn per 90 in the previous campaign, but his role up front has been much greater so far with Jean-Philippe Mateta out injured.

Brighton have enjoyed a month full of awards, including Manager of the month, Goal of the month, and German midfielder Gross winning player of the month.

But his matchup against Wharton and Timber is something that is worth paying attention to.

Whilst his attacking numbers have been incredible, the 35-year-old is averaging 1.35 fouls per 90 across all competitions, a number that jumps to 2.0 in the Prem alone.

That figure is only beaten by Chema Andres in the Brighton squad.

Hurzeler’s side will be looking to continue their fine start to the season against rivals Palace, so Gross’ 12 fouls and trend of committing at least one in each of his six starts is not something likely to end here.

Especially when Palace’s Dutch midfielder Timber is drawing 2.5 fouls alone this season, too.

Gross might be involved in the Seagulls' attack, but I also think he gets cautioned at the Amex here as well.

Charalampos Kostoulas was afforded a rest midweek, but he is likely to start up front for Brighton at the weekend. The Greek international has started the season in strong form, scoring twice in five Premier League starts. He has racked up a total of 13 shots in that time, averaging 3.03 shots per 90. 

He is a constant danger in the final third, and Kostoulas is playing with confidence at the moment, which naturally makes him a target. Given how poorly Palace defended at the week, and how they conceded three times against Lyon midweek, the Brighton striker should be looking forward to this matchup.

I think Hearts can score at least once against Celtic on Sunday.

The Jambos are a much more attack-minded outfit this season under new manager Wouter Vrancken, underlined by the fact they are currently the Scottish Premiership’s top scorers and have made the net bulge in each of their eight league matches.

Their European numbers offer further encouragement. 

Hearts scored in both legs of their Europa League qualifier against Benfica, drew 2-2 in both meetings with Rapid Vienna and played out a 1-1 draw with Nordsjaelland on Thursday night.  

While Celtic kept a clean sheet away at Motherwell last weekend, they have failed to do so in three of their last four home matches across all competitions.

That includes conceding at Parkhead to a Falkirk side struggling near the bottom of the table. 

What’s more, Celtic were soundly beaten 4-1 away to Benfica on Thursday night, while Hearts played at home, so the Jambos should come into this clash slightly fresher.

I’m fully expecting Hearts to try and take the game to Celtic, and I think four or more corners for the visitors is well within range.

The proactive approach Hearts have adopted under new boss Vrancken has coincided with an increase in the volume of corners they have earned this season.

The numbers back that up, with the Jambos averaging a sizeable 7.38 corners per game in the Scottish Premiership this season, while they forced 6 flag kicks against Nordsjaelland on Thursday night.

A closer look shows that Hearts have won at least 4 corners in each of their opening eight league games of the season.

Celtic are also strong in the corner department, but Rangers, Aberdeen and Dundee have all cleared the over 3.5 corner hurdle on their respective visits to Parkhead this season, further strengthening the case for Hearts to follow suit on Sunday.

Josh McPake has been one of the standout players during the early stages of the Scottish Premiership season, and I’m keen to back him to attempt two or more shots at Celtic Park on Sunday.

The newly capped Scotland international is usually deployed on the left wing, where he poses a threat both in front of goal and as a creator.

McPake likes to cut inside and get shots away, averaging an eye-catching 2.91 efforts per game across 7 Scottish Premiership appearances for Hearts this season. 

He has attempted at least 2 shots in each of his last 5 top-flight outings, including 6 against St Mirren last weekend.

What’s more, the Hearts ace fired off 5 shots against Nordsjaelland on Thursday night.

Celtic have looked shaky at the back all season, and I think their attack-minded approach could leave McPake with space to do damage.

The Celtic defender is always a threat from set-piece situations, and his shot numbers support that, with Scales averaging 1.34 shots per game across just six Scottish Premiership appearances this season.

A deeper dive into the numbers shows that the Irishman has registered multiple efforts in three of his last four top-flight outings, including 2 against Rangers in Celtic’s most recent home game.

He also got a shot away for the Republic of Ireland in their recent 1-1 Nations League draw at home to Israel.

Celtic will look to take the game to Hearts on Sunday, and their tendency to win plenty of corners at home should give Scales ample opportunity to try his luck again. 

Martin Odegaard has really raised his level this season after a sluggish campaign last year in which he only recorded eight goal contributions across 36 appearances for Arsenal - but did battle with injury throughout the campaign.

A positive World Cup campaign with Norway appears to have reignited his confidence and he’s scored four goals already for Arsenal this season, with two of those coming in the Premier League.

Furthermore, Odegaard has benefitted from Mikel Arteta reverting back to the trio of Ben White, Odegaard and Bukayo Saka on the right hand side, which proved so devastating a few seasons ago when Arsenal fell just short of the title.

Saka and White compliment Odegaard really well, their movement creates space for the Norwegian and he’s been pretty unlucky not to register at least one assist so far having created 12 big chances and an xA tally of 1.44.

Daniel Munoz was a crucial piece of the puzzle for Oliver Glasner for him to replicate his 3-4-3 system at Forest having made the managerial move from Crystal Palace over the summer.

Munoz followed him to the City Ground and looks really comfortable in what is essentially the same role he played at Palace.

He’s taken seven shots since joining Forest (1.81 per 90), seeing two of those efforts find the target (0.52 per 90).

Munoz registered seven goal contributions for Palace in the Premier League last season, including four goals, showing that he can be an effective attacking outlet for Forest in this clash.

I’m particularly interested in backing Munoz because I think he can make the most of the space left by Riccardo Calafiori when he ventures forward.

Arteta encourages the Italian to roam, vacating the exact part of the pitch where Munoz can get shots away. 

As mentioned above, Calafiori roams all over the place. He’s so versatile, and if you had a team of 11 Calafiori’s - you’d be a very consistent team.

One of the more underrated aspects of Calafiori’s game is the quality of his finishing.

Like Mikel Merino, Calafiori can come up with all types of finishes and isn’t afraid to let fly - there was a point last season where he had the most shots of any player in the Arsenal squad.

Calafiori has already scored once this season from nine shots (1.62 per 90), seeing two of those efforts find the target (0.36 per 90).

Calafiori also scored over the recent international break for Italy, taking four shots across his two starts.

Last season, Calafiori took 32 shots from full back (1.69 per 90), seeing eight of those efforts find the target (0.42 per 90).

We’d need Calafiori to be quite clinical here, but I do like the angle at the price.

Oliver Glasner was left scratching his head last weekend over how his side were beaten 3-1 by his former club, Crystal Palace. Forest racked up 24 shots worth 3.34 xG, but their wastefulness in the final third was punished. Morgan Gibbs-White accounted for two of those efforts, taking his average to 1.83 shots per 90 this season across all competitions.

Last season, Gibbs-White averaged 2.9 shots per 90 at the City Ground, and he landed this selection against Arsenal. Forest managed just six shots as a team in that game, but Gibbs-White accounted for two of those. Even though this is a tough matchup against Arsenal, there should still be chances for Forest on the break, and Gibbs-White will have to play a massive role in the final third if his side are to pose a danger.

No Nottingham Forest player has drawn more fouls than Neco Williams this season, and the wingback will have to play a big role if Forest are to take any points from Arsenal this weekend.

He will be directly up against Bukayo Saka, and Arsenal often look to concentrate play down that right flank. Williams should see plenty of involvement, and he is going to have to try and buy his side cheap free-kicks at times to alleviate the pressure.

Williams is adept at doing that, and he has a history of causing frustration for the Gunners. He was fouled three times at the City Ground in this fixture last season, and he has landed this selection in three of his last four starts against Arsenal.

Liam Delap is one of the clumsiest players I’ve seen at this level and I can see him getting in a few tangles with Gabriel and Ezri Konsa here - with the latter being very strong when it comes to winning fouls.

I often feel like Delap doesn’t quite yet know how to make the most of his physicality.

It reminds me of Rasmus Hojlund at United in the sense that he's often more bothered about the physical battle with the centre back rather than actually trying to bring other team-mates into play.

He’s committed six fouls since joining Forest (1.55 per 90), but that record should rise here with Delap likely to be playing at the head of a low block, and likely having to chase down lost causes all on his own.

Delap committed 25 fouls across just 12 starts in the Premier League last season (2.04 per 90), also averaging 2.48 fouls committed per 90 and collecting 12 yellow cards for Ipswich the season prior.

Konsa is very clever with how he handles these types of strikers, winning eight fouls already across his four starts for the Gunners (1.94 per 90).

This angle landed in both meetings between the sides in the Premier League last season, with 11 corners at the Emirates and 13 corners at the City Ground.

Obviously I expect Arsenal to do most of the groundwork for this selection, given that they walked away with tallies of eight and nine corners in the meetings last season.

Forest did pitch in though, registering four corners in their 0-0 draw with Arsenal at the City Ground.

Forest are have seen 8.83 corners per game in the Premier League this season.

An opponent like Arsenal will naturally force the 4.67 corners per game they’re conceding to rise, with 9+ corners looking like a solid line for this clash.