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Senegal have to win here, or they will face an embarrassing early exit from the tournament, given the success they had earlier in the year at AFCON and their general development on the international stage over the last few tournaments.

Senegal are far better than their results so far would suggest; they lost control of the game against Norway and probably should have at least gotten a point from the game when looking at the underlying numbers. They were outclassed by France, but this is a game they really should win and score at least twice in.

Iraq have conceded at least 3+ goals in both of their World Cup matches so far, allowing Norway to put four goals past them in the opener. They don’t have anything to lose here, so I don’t expect a completely passive approach, which should lead to gaps that Senegal can exploit with the quality they have in the final third.

Senegal netted twice against Norway last time out and scored 22 goals across their 10 qualifying matches (2.2 per game).

This angle links to the potential frustration that could engulf the Senegalese side at times, with the pressure that is on them to win the game.

We haven’t seen that many high card counts at the World Cup so far, but I’m still happy to take this low line for the instances where Senegal have to commit tactical fouls to stop Iraq breaking forward quickly.

The referee for this game is Anthony Taylor, who has officiated one game at the World Cup so far, handing out one card to each nation on that occasion. He averaged 2.75 cards per game across his four appearances during World Cup qualifying.

Ismaila Sarr has been Senegal’s best player so far and scored both of their goals against Norway last time out as the African side lost 3-2, making this a must-win game.

Sarr had six shots overall in that game, seeing three attempts find the target. He's playing with quite a lot of confidence in front of goal, which stems from a successful season with Crystal Palace in which he scored 21 goals across all competitions - his best tally in professional football.

Sarr had more touches in the opposition box than any other Senegalese player against Norway (10), and also managed three shots against France. This selection would have landed via Super Sub on that occasion as Ibrahim Mbaye came on from the bench to score.

I do think Iraq will be able to carry an attacking threat here, as they did against Norway with 11 shots in total. Iraq scored their first-ever goal at a World Cup in that game and can definitely cause problems for a Senegal backline that has conceded 3+ goals in both of their matches so far.

Senegal are under a lot of pressure here as only a win would give them a chance of progressing to the Round of 32 as one of the best third-placed sides. I can see them getting frustrated at times, which should open up opportunities for Iraq to find Al Hamadi, who hasn’t been afraid to let fly with six shots across his two games so far.

He scored two goals across just 194 minutes of action during qualifying from three shots on target (1.39 per 90). Iraq will know that they too have an outside chance of progressing with all three points, though their -6 goal difference is likely to be a barrier even if they get the win here.

This selection has landed in both of Iraq’s matches so far at the World Cup, with Doski proving to be an adventurous fullback who enjoys a physical battle and will get that against Ismaila Sarr and Krepin Diatta down his side of the pitch.

Doski was fouled four times in Iraq’s opener against Norway; his ability to win fouls isn’t just restricted to the World Cup, either - he plays his club football for Viktoria Plzen and won 55 fouls across just 22 starts during the 25/26 domestic campaign (2.43 per 90), confirming that winning fouls is a consistent and strong part of his game.