Back the USA’s clash with Australia to produce at least two goals.

The USA began their World Cup campaign in emphatic fashion with a 4-1 win over Paraguay. Prior to that, their matches had been consistently generating goals, with 14 straight games featuring over 1.5 goals, while six of their final seven warm-up fixtures overcame the over 2.5 hurdle. 

While Australia may look to keep things tight and perhaps play for a draw, which could be enough to secure qualification, five of their last eight matches have featured over 1.5 goals.

Notably, one of those games was a friendly against the USA late last year, which the Stars and Stripes edged 2-1.

Look for Folarin Balogun to have three or more shots against Australia on Friday night. The USA forward arrived at the tournament in strong goalscoring form for both club and country, and he has carried that into the World Cup by bagging a brace against Paraguay. Notably, he registered five attempts in that game.

Looking further back across his 10 appearances for the co-hosts in the build-up to the World Cup, Balogun registered two or more attempts in seven of those outings.

He was also a serial shooter for Monaco in Ligue 1 last season, averaging 3.09 attempts per game, with his Champions League average close behind at 2.99. 

Australia lined up in a back five against Turkey and are likely to do the same here, which should invite sustained pressure and leave Balogun well placed to register at least three attempts.

I’m also backing Folarin Balogun to be fouled at least twice.

The USA striker is likely to attract extra attention here after his display against Paraguay last week. Not only did Balogun score two goals in that game, but he was also fouled on four occasions.

That ability to draw fouls was also evident in the USA’s final warm-up game against Germany, when Balogun was brought down two times. Looking further back, he was fouled a total of four times across his three appearances at the Copa America a couple of summers ago.

His domestic numbers last season further support the angle, as Balogun was drawing an average of 1.49 fouls per game in Ligue 1, rising to 1.99 in the Champions League.

He is likely to come into regular contact with all three of Australia’s centre-backs, two of whom committed fouls against Turkey.

Mohamed Toure looks a strong contender to commit at least one foul in this contest. The Australian forward could be facing a difficult assignment leading the line against a USA side expected to dominate possession.

As a result, Toure may find himself pulled into wider areas and forced into defensive situations where he risks conceding cheap free kicks. He was guilty of two offences against Turkey last time out and had previously been penalised in five of his six appearances for the Socceroos.

Toure also showed during his time with Norwich last season that he can be prone to overstepping the mark, committing a combined total of four fouls across his final four appearances of the campaign.

He is likely to come up against USA defender Chris Richards, who was fouled once against Paraguay last Friday.

Tyler Adams is a player I regularly target to commit two or more fouls. The USA midfielder carries a real combative edge that was evident against Paraguay on matchday one, when he was reprimanded on multiple occasions and picked up a yellow card for his troubles.

The 27-year-old also committed 2+ fouls in each of the USA’s final two World Cup warm-up matches against Germany and Senegal, while the same was also true in friendly fixtures against Japan and South Korea last year.

Adams is also a familiar figure to Premier League referees, as he averaged 1.82 fouls per game last season, committing two fouls in each of his final three appearances of the campaign.

The case is further strengthened by the likelihood of a direct midfield battle with Aidan O'Neill, who has been fouled a combined total of six times across his last three starts for Australia.

Folarin Balogun can maintain his strong form by registering either a goal or an assist against Australia on Friday night. The USA forward struck twice against Paraguay last time out and comes into this fixture brimming with confidence. That brace means he now has 11 goals in 28 international appearances, alongside four assists.

The confidence and swagger he is playing with right now can be attributed to his impressive output for Monaco last season, where he netted 19 goals and provided five assists across 43 appearances in all competitions.

With the USA expected to dominate possession and dictate the tempo, Balogun should have ample opportunity to add to his two goals from last week, or turn provider.

Over 2.5 goals looks too big to ignore given how frequently it has landed in the USA’s matches of late. In fact, seven of the Stars and Stripes’ last eight fixtures have produced at least three goals, including last week’s 4-1 thrashing of Paraguay.

Prior to that, in friendly fixtures, the USA defeated Senegal 3-2, lost 5-2 to Belgium and thumped Uruguay 5-1, just to name a few. It should also be noted that one of those matches in that eight-game sequence was a 2-1 win over Australia.

What that run underlines is that Mauricio Pochettino’s side carry plenty of attacking threat, but remain far from watertight at the back.

As a result, the USA could cover the over 2.5 goal line on their own here, though Australia are more than capable of contributing themselves, as they demonstrated when striking twice against Turkey.

Given how I expect this game to play out tactically, over 5.5 corners looks well within range for the USA. Australia are likely to sit in a low block and invite pressure from the co-hosts, which should naturally lead to a healthy corner count.

Moreover, Mauricio Pochettino’s side have been producing some eye-catching corner numbers in recent times, forcing 10 in their final pre-World Cup friendly against Germany. Prior to that, the Stars and Stripes registered 6+ flag kicks against the likes of Belgium and Uruguay in friendlies.

There is further encouragement in the fact that Australia conceded eight corners in their World Cup opener against Turkey, while they shipped seven against Switzerland in their final warm-up match before the tournament.

Back Chris Richards to be fouled at least once on Friday night. Richards is the more natural ball carrier of the two USA centre-halves and should be afforded the opportunity to step into midfield. The Crystal Palace man was fouled once during the USA’s opening game of the World Cup against Paraguay, and that was also the case in two of his final five Premier League appearances last season.

What makes this selection even more appealing is that Richards is likely to be pressed and harried by Australia’s Mohamed Toure, who committed two fouls against Turkey. On top of that, the Socceroos forward had also overstepped the mark in five of his six international outings prior to that, making Richards a strong candidate to be fouled at an attractive price.