Leao’s average of 1.26 shots on target per 90 minutes is the most of any player expected to start on Wednesday, including those from both Milan and Roma. Conceicao’s system seems to really complement him, allowing for a more direct approach in which the Portuguese winger can utilise his tricky feet to beat the opponent to fire off a shot himself.

He’s managed at least one shot on goal in 12 of his 16 league appearances spanning at least 60 minutes, significantly including each of the last 6. Roma are yet to patch the gaps in their defence, which has been leaky at best this season, conceding an average of 4.3 shots on target per game.

Pellegrini has boasted an average of 1.34 fouls drawn per 90 minutes across all competitions this season – the most of any Roma player. Despite this, he’s been priced far more generously than some of his teammates who don’t come close to matching this rate.

The Italian midfielder has drawn at least one foul in 13 of his 15 appearances (60+ minutes) across all competitions. He’s upheld that streak in each of his most recent 7 and won 3 fouls in his last league match.

He’ll come up against Fofana who’s sinned at least twice in 4 of his last 8 matches including against Roma when he slipped up 3 times.

Conceicao seems to have sured things up in Milan and given Roma’s mixed form, we expect the Rossonerri to prevail at The San Siro.

They’ve lost just 2 of their last 16 domestic clashes, winning half, and drawing the remaining 6. Their sole losses came against Juventus and Atalanata, meanwhile they were undoubtedly the better side as they drew Roma 1-1 in the league. Milan excelled in the Supercoppa beating Juventus and Inter en route to collecting the trophy, and should come out on top against Roma.

That said, the visitors do come into this clash on good form, having dispatched a few smaller sides and trumped Lazio in the Derby Della Capitale. They’ve also recently secured important draws against Milan, Bologna, and Napoli although they were definitely the inferior side in the first two, and relied on shutting Napoli out most recently, posing little threat going forward. It’s for this reason that it’s important to allow Milan extra-time to get across the line should Roma take a similar approach.

No player on the pitch comes close to rivaling Dybala’s average of 3.43 shots per 90 across all competitions, boasting a fairly even split between those from inside and outside the box, showcasing his ability to adapt to the games requirements.

This selection has been a winner in 9 of his last 10 starts, over which period he’s racked up 32 shots despite limited gametime, managing the full 90 in just 4 of those games. Additionally, he sent off 5 shots in his clash with Milan earlier this season with two of those being on target and one finding the back of the net.

Milan have averaged 10.5 shots conceded per game over the course of their league season although this has risen to 13.75 in their last 4 games, conceding at least 12 in each of them. With numbers like this, it would be a real shock if Dybala doesn’t maintain the impressive run that he’s on.

Saelemaekers has drastically increased his rate of fouling in recent matches, bringing his average up to 1.47 per 90 in Serie A – the second most of any Roma player.

He’s sinned at least once in 6 of his most recent 7 matches, having found himself penalised a total of 9 times over the period. The natural winger who’s generally been utilised as a wing-back this season, often looks caught in two minds when on the ball, often resulting in him being out of position, leading to subsequent fouls.

With Rensch coming into the squad it remains to be seen exactly where Saelemaekers will start, but he has demonstrated fouling consistency across a variety of positions this season. Milan have averaged 11.2 fouls drawn per 90 this season so could pose a threat in the market.

Angelino’s well-timed forward runs have made him a real asset in the fouls drawn market, with the Spanish wingback having drawn at least 1 foul in each of his last 7 appearances on either flank of a back-five – the system Roma are expected to set up with on Wednesday.

On four of those occasions he drew 2 or more fouls whilst across all competitions he’s won a foul or more in 10 of his most recent 12 games.

In his last match against Milan, Angelino made a nuisance of himself, fouling and being fouled during the 90. Given the streak he’s on, odds as generous as this are a real surprise.

Roma’s season has been anything but consistent however, since Ranieri took over the helm, there’s been a marked improvement in front of goal.

Roma have fired off at least 4 shots on goal in 6 of their last 7 league matches,averaging 5.6 per game over the period. That’s despite tough clashes with the likes of Bologna, Milan, Lazio, and Napoli.

Milan nor Segio Conceicao are particularly known for their defence, and Roma should find themselves with plenty of opportunities. They’ve conceded at least 4 in each of their last 6 games across all competitions, averaging 5 per game. They allowed Inter 6 last time out, although The Nerazzurri also hit the woodwork 3 times and had 3 goals disallowed.

Roma have been pretty disciplined on the cards front, averaging a mere 2.00 per game in the league. That said, this average has fallen dramatically in recent matches and it’s now a rare sight to see 3 or more Roma players booked on one evening.

This selection has been a winner in 12 of Roma’s last 15 games, with Roma averaging no more than 1.88 cards per game since Ranieri’s arrival. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given he advocates for a more slow-paced approach than some of his predecessors.

Milan’s opponents also tend not to accumulate too many bookings, with their opposition exceeding 2 in just 2 of their last 10 league games and in 5 of their 23 across the entirety of the season. Since the start of the league season, their opposition have seen an average of 1.7 players enter the book with a caution.