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AC Milan v Roma Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

AC Milan v Roma Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Saturday 1 November, 20254 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Roma travel to Milan, hoping to extend their perfect record on the road so far which has seen them win all four of their away matches this season.

Milan have lost just one of their nine matches under new coach, Massimiliano Allegri, so far this season as they look to recover from a really poor campaign last year.

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AC Milan v Roma Best Bet Builder Bets
  • AC Milan v Roma
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
4 Selections @ 2.65

Matias Soule to have 2+ Shots

Matias Soule has been one of Roma’s best players so far this season as he benefits from the guidance of Gian Piero Gasperini. Soule has registered five goal contributions across his nine appearances in Serie A this season (three goals, two assists) with Soule having 19 shots across three games (2.57 per 90).

Soule averaged 2.11 shots per 90 across his 27 Serie A appearances last season. He registered 10 goal contributions for Roma last season, so he’s already halfway to matching his impact from last term this time around. Soule’s numbers in the Europa League also offer promise when it comes to shots, the Argentine has had 11 shots across his three appearances in the Europa League (4.25 per 90).

Roma are currently averaging 12.5 shots per game in Serie A this season and have managed 10+ shots in eight of their nine matches in Serie A this term. Gian Piero Gasperini’s appointment has made Roma more front-footed and a more exciting time to watch, which can contribute to Soule having at least two shots here.

Evan Ndicka to Commit 1+ Fouls

Ndicka has committed a foul in three of his last five Serie A appearances, with two of those games seeing him commit multiple fouls. He’s committed nine fouls in total across his nine appearances in the Italian top-flight (1.07 per 90), and his potential clash against the front two of Milan in Rafael Leao and Santiago Gimenez stands out to me here.

Leao has been playing upfront since Massimiliano Allegri took over at Milan, which is key for our selection here. He’s retained his strong ability when it comes to winning fouls despite this positional change, with Leao winning nine fouls across his five appearances in Serie A this term (2.98 per 90).

Ndicka will also have to deal with the threat of Santiago Gimenez, who has won 10 fouls across his nine Premier League appearances this season (1.44 per 90). Ndicka committed two fouls in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides back in May as Roma registered a 3-1 win over Milan.

Over 1.5 Goals

Milan have seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. The exception in this recent run was a 0-0 draw against Juventus which was a game that should have produced more goals with a combined xG of 2.87 generated between the two sides.

Milan’s five home games in Serie A this season have produced 14 goals (2.8 per game). They’ll need to really tap into their attacking style to dislodge Roma here, the away side have the best travelling record of any side in Serie A with four wins from their four away matches.

Roma have seen six goals across these matches (1.5 per game) but I’d expect Milan to really test the backline of Roma, which has only let in one goal on the road so far this season. Each of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides have produced 2+ goals, with the most recent clash seeing four goals as Roma ran out 3-1 winners over Milan.

Roma Goalkeeper to Make 2+ Saves

Mile Svilar has been a very busy man between the sticks for Roma this season with the 26-year-old forced into making 22 saves across his nine matches in Serie A this term (2.44 per game).

He’s maintained a save percentage of 84.6% across these games with an impressive goals prevented tally of 2.61. Only Emil Audero can boast a stronger save percentage than Svilar so far this season (87.5%), so the Roma shot stopper is a really reliable option to back for saves. Svilar is also tied for the most clean sheets in Serie A this season (five). 

AC Milan have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in seven of their nine games in Serie A this season. They’ve drawn 25 fouls in total across their matches (2.77 per game), with Milan forcing the opposition into 2+ saves in all but one of their home matches this term.

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📈 AC Milan v Roma Form & Tactics

Massimiliano Allegri has completely revolutionised the approach and attitude of AC Milan this season. The sleeping giants of Italian football failed to qualify for any European competition last year as they finished 8th in Serie A, prompting a serious revamp of the squad and coaching staff.

They’ve become very hard to beat, which is the same stubbornness that Allegri drilled into his Juventus side a few seasons ago.

AC Milan have lost just one of their nine games in Serie A this season, which was sustained against Cremonese on the opening weekend of the season. This tells us that Milan have been going from strength to strength since that defeat and can claim another huge scalp here, having already avoided defeat against Napoli, Atalanta and Juventus this season.

Roma are a much more entertaining side to watch now that they are under the tutelage of Gian Piero Gasperini. Gasperini has long been one of the most underrated managers in football and he deploys a front-footed philosophy that many will have become accustomed to from his time at Atalanta, where he won the Europa League a few seasons ago.

Roma’s main strength this season has been their impressive record on the road. They’ve won all four of their away matches, conceding just one goal across those games.


📔 AC Milan v Roma Formation & Team News

As part of Milan’s shake-up under Allegri, they’ve taken on a 3-5-2 shape, with the most intriguing part of this structure being the role of Rafael Leao.

Leao is usually deployed as a left winger, but with no such role available in this side, he’s been shifted to a striker role, which is suiting him at the moment - Leao has netted three goals across his five Serie A appearances this term, while maintaining the other strong aspects of his game.

The role of Luka Modric has also been interesting to track, with the 40-year-old still able to act as an important player for the Italian giants. He’s registered three goal contributions across his nine appearances in Serie A, with his most notable asset being his chance creation (2.29 chances created per 90).

Milan are expected to be without Fikayo Tomori for this encounter, as well as Christian Pulisic and Adrien Rabiot, which is a blow to Allegri as they're all players that were performing promisingly in the early weeks of the season. 

Roma will line up in a similar shape, with Gasperini preferring a 3-4-3 so far. The roles of Paulo Dybala and Matias Soule are crucial in this system, as supporting players just behind the striker. These are also the players that Gasperini is able to develop the most, as we saw with Ademola Lookman at Atalanta.


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