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Aston Villa v Newcastle
Now onto the second of our two Tuesday Premier League bet builders for this midweek slate, as Aston Villa welcome Newcastle to Villa Park. We don’t just stick to England’s top flight either though, with football tips & predictions from across the globe and in a range of sports, so you can bet smarter no matter what you’re into.
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Aston Villa and Newcastle return to Premier League action in this exciting contest at Villa Park. A whopping 14 points separate these two, with the visitors sitting in a pretty dire 10th place after some recent form struggles, whereas Unai Emery’s men sit fourth, keeping their eyes firmly on a Champions League spot for next season.
Aston Villa were held to a fairly disappointing 0-0 draw away from home in their last league outing, but nevertheless, this leaves the Villans with just one loss in their 10 Premier League outings, extending to 15 games across all competitions. Aston Villa have claimed 6 wins during that 10 league game period with four being secured on home soil. Unbeaten so far in 2024, a victory here will be crucial to extend their stay in the top 4 and potentially even the title race.
A redemption victory for Newcastle as they saw off Fulham in the FA Cup last weekend which would have provided a much-needed boost for the Magpies. The bigger picture shows Newcastle have claimed only 3 wins of their last 10 top-flight games, each coming on home soil. One win in 10 league away games certainly is not boding well in their hopes of pushing on from last season’s success so an uphill battle certainly awaits Newcastle here.
Aston Villa v Newcastle Cheat Sheet
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⚽ Match stats: An away side curse
It certainly feels like this matchup is between two sides showing the complete reversal in form. Aston Villa have 6 victories and 3 draws in their last 10 league games, whilst Newcastle claimed 3 wins in that time. The visitors have also lost their seven league matches, and unfortunately for them, this fixture seemingly never favors the away side.
There hasn’t been an away win between these two sides for 11 years, since Newcastle triumphed at Villa Park in a 2-1 victory all the way back in 2013. On top of that, across the last three meetings between these two, there have been a total of 13 goals scored, 12 of which netted by the home team – talk about omens.
Aston Villa have proven themselves near unstoppable on home soil which has rightly secured them a spot in this year’s title battle. A near perfect record, 9 wins from 10 home league games this season, surprisingly drawing only to bottom-placed Sheffield United. This extends out to 16 wins in their last 17 – the evidence just keeps on building.
Factoring in the Magpies’ seriously poor away performances this season with Villa’s staggering home form, not to mention the historic trends in this fixture, it would be difficult to look past an Aston Villa win here.
⚽ Aston Villa to win @ 1.90
⚽ Aston Villa draw no bet @ 1.40
🥅 Goals stats: Villa Park the place to be for goals
Speaking of performances at Villa Park, the only other factor anywhere near as consistent as a Aston Villa home victory, is for there to be goals. Seven of the last ten home outings for Villa have produced three goals or more, in which Villa have solely scored 26 goals – a pretty strong goalscoring average.
The Villans games have been known for goals this season, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals landing in 67% of their league matches. The hosts have only kept 3 home clean sheets and this could certainly invite some pressure from Newcastle, who have had decent scoring success recently.
Newcastle fixtures have also been enjoying the goals recently with four of their last five across all competitions producing 3 goals or more. They have boasted their attacking presence, netting two or more in each of their last four games across all competitions, and despite Villa’s stunning home record, they’re certainly vulnerable to conceding.
Despite their pitiful away form, Newcastle’s traveling fixtures rarely fail to deliver a spectacle, with seven of their last 10 games on the road resulting in over 2.5 goals. There‘s no doubt that goals have followed these 2 sides home and away. These two last met on the first day of the season where Newcastle hosted a staggering 5-1 victory, and we expect this fixture to be filled with drama too.
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.45
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50
🎯 Shooting stats: McGinn and Isak to continue their attacking form
One of Aston Villa’s most consistent players in the attacking realm is John McGinn who is certainly no stranger to causing danger from the midfield.
The Scotsman is averaging 1.36 shots per 90 this season but his recent efforts have certainly outperformed those averages. McGinn has 10 shots across his last 5 outings, registering at least 2 shots on goal on four of those occasions. Of these efforts on goal, 3 have hit the target so the angle of 2 shots on goal is looking more valuable but for those high odds bet builders, a shot on target for McGinn looks exciting. He has recorded at least 2 shots on goal in 3 of his last 4 home games, including against Arsenal and Man City. The Magpies are facing a hefty average of 15 shots on goal per game, with 5 of those hitting the target so they’re certainly vulnerable to facing a few shots on target.
With 3 goals in his last 4 league games, Alexander Isak has been in great form as of late and certainly playing as Newcastle’s danger man.
Isak has at least one shot on target in all of his last 5 matches, registering an impressive 13 shots over those outings with 11 hitting the target – some strong shooting. Alongside this form, he is averaging an impressive 2.78 shots on goals per 90 this season with 1.51 hitting the target.
Considering his recent form and season stats so far his price for one shot on target seems pretty good value for crafting those bet builders. Aston Villa are conceding an average of 4 shots on target per 90 this season and with Isak representing so much of the Magpies attack as of late, we expect the threat to emerge from him.
⚽ John McGinn to have 2+ shots @ 1.80
⚽ John McGinn to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.30
⚽ Alexander Isak to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.44
⚽ Alexander Isak to have 3+ shots @ 2.20
🟨 Cards stats: A busy evening for the officials
Both teams have shown their jagged discipline record so far this season, with Aston Villa boasting the third-worst discipline record in the league collecting 59 total yellows in comparison with seventh spot Newcastle, who trail by only 7 yellows with 52.
The hosts have been very vicious with their collection of yellows in recent games, collecting a whopping 22 yellows across their last 6 Premier League fixtures, racking up at least 3 yellows in each of those outings. This recent form makes their 2.81 bookings per 90 seem almost tame. This does nearly match up perfectly to Newcastle’s average of drawing in 2.71 bookings per 90.
Villa’s ill-discipline extends to receiving at least 3 bookings in 10 of their last 13 games across all competitions, and against a Newcastle team that draw in an average of 12.40 fouls per 90, there’s plenty of room for home bookings here.
The Magpies have also shown their teeth recently, picking up 9 yellows across their last 3 Premier League outings. Newcastle are averaging 2.43 bookings per 90 this season, and with Aston Villa drawing in an impressive 12.90 fouls per game, the hosts can certainly cause some trouble too.
Although both sides have shown their capability of racking up the cards, Aston Villa have certainly proved themselves to be the biggest source of cards as of late so a card match bet for the home side here looks very inviting.
⚽ Over 4.5 cards @ 1.53
⚽ Over 2.5 Aston Villa cards @ 1.80
⚽ Aston Villa to receive cards @ 1.80
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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