These two teams met at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza less than a week ago and Inter sent Barcelona back to Spain with their tail between their legs after a 1-0 win thanks to a Hakan Çalhanoğlu strike. That gives Inter a three-point advantage over Barça with three games to go in Group C and anything but a win for the home team on Wednesday could prove disastrous for their Champions League hopes.
Barcelona followed up that defeat with a nervy 1-0 win over Celta Vigo at Camp Nou, with Xavi opting to rest some players and bringing other key figures like Pedri off on the hour mark. Over in Italy, Inter secured a narrow away win over Sassuolo with Edin Džeko securing a brace.
Barcelona v Inter Milan Bet Builder Tips
Barcelona to Win
This is a must-win game for Barcelona and the Catalan club will be confident about pulling that off. Neither team played particularly well in attack in last week’s meeting in Milan, but Barça were still the slightly more dangerous side and finished with 0.52 xG to Inter’s 0.16, and that’s without including the disallowed Pedri goal and the Dumfries handball no-call that Xavi and his players were so furious about.
This week, Barcelona will have home advantage and it really should be an advantage this Wednesday night, as it’s a rare sell-out at the Camp Nou. They’ve been playing well at home this season, with four wins and a draw from five matches and with 13 goals scored and just one conceded.
Although Inter won 2-1 at Sassuolo on Saturday, they’d lost their three previous away matches in Serie A, in amongst their hardly surprising 2-0 away win at Viktoria Plzeň. This will be their toughest away outing of the season so far and they’ll surely be up against it.
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Prediction: Barcelona to Win
Both Teams to Score – No
Barcelona should win the game and there is a very good chance that they’ll do so with a clean sheet. Although Marc-André ter Stegen was beaten from distance in the first meeting and has conceded in each of his Champions League appearances so far, the German has actually been in really good form to start the new season.
Domestically, his LaLiga performances have him closing in on records, as he has now gone 624 minutes without conceding a league goal, which is the best such run in the competition since his former teammate Claudio Bravo reached 755 minutes without conceding in 2014. Although Ter Stegen could have pulled out a deckchair and still kept a clean sheet for a couple of the games early on in this run, he really has been needed recently and made some simply incredible saves in the wins over Mallorca and Celta Vigo.
Some credit must go to the Barça defence too, with Gerard Piqué back and playing well and with Eric García continuing to develop. The fact that they won’t have to deal with the still-injured Romelu Lukaku for this Wednesday’s game makes their task slightly easier, along with the fact that the Italian media expect Simone Inzaghi to set his side up in a very defensive fashion.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score – No
Under 2.5 goals
As mentioned above, Inter could adopt a very defensive approach for this game as they target a point that would keep them above Barcelona in the group. However, it should also be kept in mind that it’s the head-to-head tiebreaker that will separate these teams if they finish level on points, which really could happen.
So, even if Inter find themselves 1-0 down, they won’t want to concede a second to Barcelona and that means we’re unlikely to see Inzaghi’s side go gung-ho in search of an equaliser. If Inter find themselves behind, it’s more likely that they’ll little by little expand their play.
The result, therefore, could be a low-scoring game. We already saw how difficult it was for both these teams to fashion chances in the last clash, with the xGs of 0.16 for Inter and 0.52 for Barcelona. The Catalan side should be even more dominant on Wednesday and, even if they take the win, it’s highly unlikely to be a thrashing.
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals
Gerard Piqué to attempt 90 or more Passes
He may only have been a bit-part player this season, but the current defensive injury crisis means that Gerard Piqué is almost certain to retain his starting spot in defence against Inter alongside Eric García.
The veteran defender is the team’s fourth most prolific passer with an average of 90.5 passes per 90 according to FBref, only behind Jordi Alba, Sergi Roberto and Andreas Christensen. He’s likely to maintain that figure in a game where Barcelona will need to be solid defensively in a tight encounter.
Playing up against an Inter team which are likely to defend in a low block as they hunt for a draw, the most similar game that we’ve seen will be the away visit to Mallorca where Piqué had 116 passes in total. His partnership with García and with Alba to the left will likely mean that there will be plenty of passes for Piqué to play.
On top of that, Piqué tends to make more passes in European competition. His passing figures increase by almost 8% on average throughout his career when comparing Champions League and Europa League stats to domestic competition within Spain. Inter, who do not play with a high press, will likely allow him to pursue that strategy once again at Camp Nou.
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Prediction: Gerard Pique to attempt 90 or more Passes
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Predicted Line-ups
Barcelona predicted XI (4-3-3): Ter Stegen; Roberto, Pique, E Garcia, Alonso; Gavi, Busquets, Pedri; Dembele, Lewandowski, Fati
Inter Milan predicted XI (3-5-2): Onana; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; L Martinez, Dzeko
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How to watch Barcelona v Inter Milan in the Champions League?
📅 When is Barcelona v Inter Milan? / Wednesay, 12th October 2022, 8:00PM
🏟 Where is Barcelona v Inter Milan? / Camp Nou (Barcelona)
📺 What TV channel is Barcelona v Inter Milan on? / BT Sport 4
🟨 …And who is the referee for Barcelona v Inter Milan? / S. Marciniak 🇵🇱
