FA Cup Final Team News & bet365 Sub On Play On Analysis
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We have taken some time to analyse the likely starting XI of both Crystal Palace and Manchester City ahead of the FA Cup Final on Saturday, and then looked into the recent history of substitutions from both sides to see if any patterns can be established.
🦅 Crystal Palace
Predicted XI | Recent Replacement Information | |
|---|---|---|
Henderson | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
Richards | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
Lacroix | Last subbed off seven matches ago | Clyne was his replacement |
Guehi | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
Munoz | Last subbed off nine matches ago | Franca was his replacement |
Hughes | Has been sharing minutes with Wharton, but Wharton is injured | When Wharton isn't available, Hughes plays longer but could be replaced by Kamada or Devenny |
Lerma | Regularly plays the full 90 but did come off after 60 minutes last time out | Was replaced by Kamada in that one |
Mitchell | Has been subbed off in five of his last 10 games | Chilwell was subbed on for Mitchell in all five, after 60 minutes in four of those |
Sarr | Subbed off three times in his last 10 | Esse was subbed on, but all three were in the final 10 minutes |
Eze | No obvious replacement, played full 90s in his last two games | Was replaced by Kamada, Lerma, and Sarr in consecutive matches in April |
Mateta | Shares minutes with Eddie Nketiah | Was replaced on 60', 76', 79', 75', 56' by Nketiah in his last five starts |
Potential Substitution Plans
If Leading:
If Crystal Palace are leading going into the second half, there will likely be a replacement of either Ismaila Sarr or Eberechi Eze late on in the match, between 75-85 minutes, with another midfielder coming on in their place.
There could be a freshening of legs in midfield with Daichi Kamada first off the bench for Will Hughes, or potentially Jefferson Lerma.
Mateta is a stronger hold-up player, so Oliver Glasner is likely to want to keep Mateta on for longer if leading to provide a physical presence. However, Eddie Nketiah is likely to still come on around the 75-80 minute mark.
If Drawing:
There will be few changes if the match is level.
Kamada is likely to be first off the bench for either Will Hughes or Jefferson Lerma.
Tyrick Mitchell will probably be replaced by Ben Chilwell after the hour mark.
If Behind:
Ben Chilwell will replace Tyrick Mitchell earlier in proceedings, possibly between 55-65 minutes.
Nketiah will get on the pitch, potentially for a central defender. Though we have rarely seen Mateta and Nketiah on the pitch at the same time recently, this is an FA Cup final, and so these are exceptional circumstances.
🔵 Man City
Predicted XI | Recent Replacement Information | |
|---|---|---|
Ederson | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
Nunes | Only subbed off once in his last 11 starts | Lewis was Nunes' replacement |
Dias | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
Gvardiol | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
O'Reilly | Started seven of Man City's last eight | Subbed off for Akanji on 58' and then replaced in the starting XI by him next match |
Silva | Almost always plays the full 90 | |
Kovacic | The last time Kovacic was replaced before the 85th minute was 12 starts ago | Marmoush, Doku and McAtee have been late replacements for Kovacic |
Doku | Has only started twice in Man City's last eight | Was replaced once by James McAtee on 78' |
De Bruyne | Played full 90s in four of his last seven starts | Replaced by McAtee, Akanji and Doku on 84', 88' and 87' |
Marmoush | Played full 90s in four of his last seven starts | Replaced by Phil Foden each time, on 83', 81' and 82' |
Haaland | Very rarely subbed off | Last subbed off for Marmoush, who is also expected to start |
Potential Substitution Plans
If Leading:
If Manchester City are leading going into the second half, there won't be many changes made by Pep Guardiola.
His first change in 2023 was Phil Foden for Kevin De Bruyne at 75 minutes. This seems a highly plausible scenario this time as well.
There will probably be very late changes, around the 85th-90th minute for Mateo Kovacic, Omar Marmoush, and/or Jeremy Doku as well.
If Drawing:
There will be few changes if the match is level.
Guardiola could potentially look to move Josko Gvardiol to left back and bring Manuel Akanji on for Nico O'Reilly.
Depending on his level of performance, Jeremy Doku could be replaced after the hour mark with Phil Foden or Savinho the likely replacements.
If Behind:
Guardiola showed last year that he will ring the changes in a final if he feels it necessary.
Foden will be on earlier, potentially for Mateo Kovacic, moving Kevin De Bruyne deeper to cover that role. Savinho for Jeremy Doku is another potential change that Guardiola will reach for.
James McAtee is another likely addition if Man City are behind, probably for De Bruyne.
There is also the case of the man who lifted this trophy in 2023, Ilkay Gundogan. He is not predicted to start, but Guardiola will surely use his experience off the bench if they need a goal.
📊 Previous FA Cup Finals
Year | Match | Winners' Substitutions | Losers' Substitutions |
2024 | Man City 2-1 Man City | 4 (73’ double, 90+3’ double) | 3 (46’ double, 56’) |
2023 | Man City 2-1 Man Utd | 3 (76’, 89’, 90+5’) | 3 (62’, 78’, 83’) |
2022 | Liverpool 0-0 Chelsea | 2 (34’ injury, 74’) | 2 (66’, 85’) |
2021 | Leicester 1-0 Chelsea | 4 (34’ injury, 67’, 82’ double) | 5 (68’ double, 75’ double, 82’) |
2020 | Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea | 3 (82’, 88’, 90+13’) | 5 (38’ injury, 49’ injury, triple sub on 78’) |
It is quite rare to see all five substitutions made in an FA Cup final in normal time.
The earliest substitutions that weren't injury-related were Pep Guardiola’s double change in last season's final when they were 2-0 down at half time.
Generally, the team leading the final doesn't make a change until around the 70-minute mark, with Leicester's change on 67’ in 2020 the earliest non-injury change in recent records. Four of the 12 (33%) non-injury substitutions made by teams leading in the final were made in stoppage time.
The Liverpool v Chelsea final remained 0-0 until full time, and only three tactical substitutions were made in the 90 minutes; this is something to be aware of if the final is a stalemate.
Often, it is the team chasing the match that makes more substitutions; nine of the 14 (64%) non-injury substitutions made by teams behind were done before the 70th minute, and none were made after the 85th minute. The majority of these changes were attacking changes to try and get back into the match.
Jeremy Doku is the only substitute to have scored in an FA Cup final since 2020. This was in last year's final after being brought on for Mateo Kovacic at half time.
Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club
There’s nowhere better than Andy’s Bet Club for Expert Football Tips.
There's £250+ in FA Cup Final Free Bet Offers and Andy's Free Bets & Sign Up Offer Guide for pre-match browsing.
For more insight, check out our Bet Builder Stats tool, plus Andy’s Football Tips Centre is filled with smart bets. There's a whole host of Accumulator Tips on site, as well as Gem Bets and Crystal Palace v Man City Betting Stats.
We've got an FA Cup Final Hit Rates Bet Builder to sit alongside our Fouls Acca Tips and Shots Predictions for the game. You may always want to delve into our bet365 Exclusive FA Cup Final Boost, Crystal Palace v Man City Bet Builder Tips and FA Cup Final Betting Preview.
As always, we are tracking all the very best Free Bet Offers for this week’s football, so click the link and see what value you can take advantage of - there's a list of the best New Bookmaker Offers here. We're keeping tabs on the best welcome offers at this time of year with this bet365 Sign Up Offer. At ABC, we offer weekly bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips too.
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