Burnley v Leeds

Monday night sees Burnley and Leeds face off in a crucial Championship clash that could have serious implications for the automatic playoff places. Leeds currently lead the way with 59 points but Scott Parker’s Burnley side aren’t too far behind with 56 points. Sandwiched in between them is a Sheffield United side on 58 points, setting up what could be one of the most dramatic finishes to a Championship automatic promotion race, especially with Sunderland also in contention. 

It’s a real clash of styles here, Daniel Farke’s free-scoring Leeds side travel to a Burnley team that has only conceded 9 goals across the entirety of the campaign, a base on which they’ve built most of their success this season. Will Leeds’ firepower break Burnley’s resolve or can Scott Parker’s side put on another defensive masterclass?

⭐ Burnley v Leeds Best Bets

Burnley’s incredible defensive record this season is largely down to James Trafford, the 22-year-old has been sensational for Burnley this season and will be required if Burnley are going to get something from this game. Leeds have the best attacking-line in the Championship, this is evidenced by the fact that they are the top scorers in the division (53 goals scored) and have had more shots on target than anyone else in the division (5.7 per game).

Leeds have drawn 3+ saves from the opposition keeper in 20 of their 28 games this season (71%) further underlining their attacking quality. One of these occasions was in Leeds’ narrow defeat to Burnley at Elland Road earlier in the season in which Trafford was called to action 4 times. 

Trafford’s save percentage sits at 85.9% which is the best in the division, he’s averaging 2.04 saves per game in the Championship but as we’ve seen already this season, Leeds can increase the amount of times he’s called upon with such a potent attacking line. In a game that looks to be attack v defence on paper, Trafford should be called into action at least 3 times as the opposition keeper has been in the majority of games against Leeds this season.

👕 Burnley v Leeds Predicted XI

🔍 Burnley v Leeds Players to Watch

🟣 Zian Flemming

Despite the majority of Burnley’s success this season coming as a result of their defensive acumen, they wouldn’t be in the position they are in the league without an attacking threat going the other way. The most notable of these is Zian Flemming who has recorded 7 goal contributions across his 19 Championship appearances, usually playing as a number 9.

He’s averaging 1.33 shots on target per 90 which is the highest total in the Burnley squad. When Scott Parker’s side are afforded the ability to push up the pitch, expect Flemming to be at the heart of any positive developments and test Meslier in the Leeds net at least once. 

🟣 Josh Cullen

Burnley’s defensive record is accompanied by a not-so-pretty high fouls record. Scott Parker’s side are averaging 12.8 fouls committed per game in the Championship which is a record only bettered by Preston North End in the Championship this term.

Josh Cullen makes up a decent chunk of this as a holding midfielder, he’s averaging 1.44 fouls committed per 90 across his 26 Championship appearances this season. There isn’t much value in backing him in the traditional fouls market with his price quite low at 1.17 but the 1.67 to commit a foul in the first half stands out, especially against a Leeds side that has been making fast starts of late with a goal inside 10 minutes in each of their last 2 games. 

⚪ Manor Solomon

Manor Soloman has impressed during his loan spell from parent club Tottenham. The winger has registered 10 goal contributions (5 goals, 5 assists) across his 21 Championship appearances this season with just 12 of these being starts.

He’s recorded a goal contribution in each of his last 4 appearances in all competitions which has included early goals against Norwich and Sheffield Wednesday in the last 2 games so watch out for a quick start by the 25-year-old here. Leeds have found the back of the net at least once in each of their last 11 games across all competitions. 

📂 Burnley v Leeds Cheat Sheet

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💻 Burnley v Leeds Form and Tactics

As mentioned, Burnley’s success in the Championship this season has been achieved by a solid defensive strategy which has been extremely effective with Scott Parker’s side only conceding 9 goals in the league this term - far and away the best defensive record in the division.

They line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape but the attacking players have strict defensive instructions, even Flemming who usually plays as a striker is instructed to drop back and help out the midfield. They are compact and aggressive, and limit spaces for opposition attackers effectively. 

By contrast, Daniel Farke’s Leeds side are much more flexible, especially in their attacking play. They are the top scorers in the division and also sit top of the rankings for possession (62.7%) and shots on target (5.7 per game). Interestingly, the only metrics they don’t sit top of are occupied by Burnley, namely defensive metrics such as clean sheets and fouls per game. 

The contrast in styles sets up an intriguing matchup between two sides desperate to be in the automatic promotion positions come the end of the season. This game will be decided on small margins, both sides are on formidable unbeaten runs so it’s difficult to predict a clear winner but with Burnley at Turf Moor, expect their defensive line to be very difficult to penetrate despite Leeds’ strong attacking numbers.

🏁 Burnley v Leeds Ref Watch

• Referee: Josh Smith

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.