Flynn Downes is an obvious pick for a card this weekend, as 1 of only 2 Premier League players to pick up 9 Premier League cards this season faces off against a Newcastle midfield that comfortably wins more fouls than any other side.

Southampton have been much more competitive of late, with late-game heartbreak costing them points at Old Trafford last week, before a near-fightback away to Nottingham Forest last weekend. Ivan Juric may not be getting results, but he is certainly inspiring some fight. If we get another spirited and competitive performance, cards become much more likely.

Downes has now been booked in 5 of his last 7 Premier League games, despite featuring for only 18, 45, 60, and 65 minutes in 4 of these 7 matches. Across these contests, the 26-year-old midfielder has fouled 3+ times on 4 occasions. Before this run, his foul per 90 rate for the season was 1.80; but across these last 7 games, he has averaged a whopping 3.63 fouls per 90.

Up against a Newcastle midfield that features the Premier League’s most fouled player in Bruno Guimaraes (3.55 fouls won per 90), as well as Sandro Tonali (2.04), and Joelinton (1.17), Downes represents great value even at these relatively short odds to be carded.

Joel Veltman offers a great price to be booked against Everton. It’s not surprising to see Brighton players at such long odds to be shown a card here, as no side has seen fewer cards awarded to their opponents than Everton this season. We do, however, expect them to be more adventurous under David Moyes, and this could change as we head into the second half of the season.

1 stat that particularly catches the eye is that of the 7 cards awarded to their opponents in their last 7 games, 3 have either gone to players playing at right back or at right centre back, where they are going up against Iliman Ndiaye.

The Senegal international is winning an average of 1.87 fouls per 90, and he is likely to get stuck into duels with Brighton full back Joel Veltman, who has committed 1.31 fouls per 90, and been booked 3 times in his last 5 league games for the Seagulls.

Veltman has fouled 6 times in his last 3 league starts and has only gone through a game without fouling once since November, which came last time out against Man United in a comfortable 3-1 win at Old Trafford. Back to facing an out-and-out winger here, we expect Veltman to be much busier, and a price of 5.0 to be booked offers excellent value.