Champions League Semi-Final First Leg Trends

The abolition of away goals was adopted ahead of the UEFA club competitions of 2021/22, so we have done some research into the first legs of the semi-finals of the Champions League for the last three seasons to see if there are any interesting trends that could help with our bets ahead of the two semi-finals this week.

There have been six semi-final first legs since the abolition of away goals:

2022

Man City v Real Madrid
Liverpool v Villarreal

2023

AC Milan v Inter Milan
Real Madrid v Man City

2024

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
Borussia Dortmund v PSG

The eagle-eyed amongst you will have already identified a slight issue with the Milan semi-final of 2023 having both legs played at the same stadium, San Siro.

Obviously, this is a small sample size, which is a flaw, but so far we have seen that home first legs, post-away goals rule, have generally been advantageous to the home teams. Excluding the Inter Milan win, which, as mentioned, was staged at their home ground, home teams haven’t yet experienced defeat in a first leg of a Champions League semi-final.

In terms of goal trends, all home teams, excluding AC Milan, scored at least once, but there is no clear trend for how the matches have gone so far. There have been no scoreless draws, but the matches have ranged from a single goal to seven goals in a tie. Only two of the matches have gone over 2.5 goals, with three seeing both teams scoring.

Other Markets

In terms of other potential markets to bet on, the cards market is an interesting one. Each of the semi-final first legs have seen both teams receive at least one card each, and in two of them, both teams received at least two cards.

Every match has seen over 2.5 cards, but only two have gone over 3.5. Interestingly, the home team has received more cards in four of the six semi-final first legs, something to perhaps bear in mind if the market bias is towards away teams in this market.

This also ties in with the evidence in terms of fouls committed. Three of the six matches saw the home team commit more fouls, and in only the Milan semi-final did we see the 'away' team commit more fouls. There is perhaps a slight sense of desperation to make that home leg count in this situation, leading to higher pressing and more physical play from the home team.

Certainly, home teams seem to shoot more than the away teams in these matches. This is helped by Liverpool’s dominance over Villarreal in 2022, but three other first legs also saw the home team outshoot the away team, with only PSG over Dortmund in 2024 going the opposite direction.

Expanding the Sample

As a result of there only being six matches to look at to assess first legs in the 'no away goals' era, we expanded the sample to include all Champions League knockout matches that have been played in this era.

There have already been 20 knockout ties in this season’s competition with the introduction of the extra play-off round, but we also have 14 ties from each of the previous seasons to include in this data set.

It is interesting to note that the average number of goals in the first legs is higher for the away side than it is for the home side. However, this does not actually translate into the results necessarily, with 26 home wins over 24 away wins. Only 12 draws (19%)  have occurred post-away goals rule, and only one in the 20 matches in this season’s competition, which would suggest that there are fewer teams believing that a draw is a good result for them in the first leg.

The average number of goals in a first leg in the Champions League post-away goals rule is 2.66. There have been no 0-0 draws in the 62 first legs in the sample. 28/62 (45%) have seen both teams score, which is perhaps lower than average in the Champions League, and 27/62 (44%) have gone over 2.5 goals.

However, it is perhaps worth stating that the goal volume is higher in 2024/25 than any other season. There is an average of 3 goals per game in the first leg matches in this season’s competition, compared with 2.64 in 2023/24, 2.07 in 2022/23, and 2.78 in 2021/22.

Conclusions to Draw

For this week’s semi-final first legs there are some interesting pieces of information to draw from the research:

• Draws are unlikely - we have seen very few draws in the first legs of matches post-away goals rule

• Home advantage tends to convert into a first leg lead - this seems to be specific to semi-finals, but home advantage tends to be won in the first leg

• 2024/25 is a high scoring Champions League - the goal average in the first legs in this season’s tournament have been much higher than previous seasons

• Home teams tend to foul more - the average foul count for home teams is over two fouls more than the away team in Champions League semi-final first legs

• Home teams tend to shoot more - there is a clear shot bias towards the home team in Champions League semi-final first legs

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