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Champions League Permutations
All 18 games in the final round of the 2024/25 Champions League league phase get underway at 8pm on Wednesday. With 27 teams still in with a chance of qualifying in the top 24, and 17 teams still (mathematically, at least) in the hunt for the top 8 spots that secure a bye to the last 16 it’s sure to be an exciting night.
It’s likely to get a bit confusing as the night wears on but fortunately, our expert is on hand to break down everything you need to know.
Champions League Table
Champions League Format
Key Points
- Teams that finish in the Top 8 of the league phase automatically qualify for the Last 16
- Teams that finish 9th-24th advance to a 2-legged play-off round, with the 8 winners of that round facing the teams that finish in the top 8 in the Last 16
- Teams finishing 9th-16th will be seeded for the play-off round, whilst teams finishing 17th-24th will be unseeded
- Teams that finish in 25th-36th are eliminated from the competition, and unlike previous years, do not drop into the Europa League
- If teams are level on points, goal difference is the first tiebreaker, and it is going to have a big impact on the final standings
- Goals scored is the 2nd tiebreaker, with away goals scored being the 3rd tiebreaker
- The knockout rounds are seeded so that those who finish highest in the league phase will face the teams who finished lowest, which should add some extra motivation for teams who have already qualified
Champions League Standings
- So far, only Liverpool and Barcelona have automatically qualified for the Last 16 as top 8 finishers
- That means that teams from 3rd to 17th can mathematically still qualify for the Last 16; whilst the 25 teams from 3rd to 27th can still end up in the play-off round
- Just 3 points separate the 16 teams from 8th to 24th
- All teams in 18th place and above are assured of at least a play-off round spot
Champions League Group Stage: Race for the Top 8
🏴🏴 Aston Villa (9th: 13pts) v Celtic (18th: 12pts)
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- Villa’s first-ever Champions League campaign is certain to continue, it is simply a case of whether they qualify directly into the Last 16 or the play-off round.
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- Villa have occupied a top 8 slot for most of the campaign but are currently 9th, a draw will not be good enough to qualify top 8 as there are 11 teams behind them who would overtake Villa with a win.
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- Celtic guaranteed their play-off round place last week, but they could leap over Villa in the rankings with a win and likely guarantee themselves a seeded place in the play-off round.
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- Celtic can still mathematically advance to the round of 16, but they are the lowest-ranked team who could, so it is very unlikely even with a win.
🇪🇸🇮🇹 Barcelona (2nd: 18pts) v Atalanta (7th: 14pts)
- The only all top 8 clash in the final round.
- Barcelona, due to their epic comeback on MD7, are 1 of only 2 teams to have already qualified for the Last 16, but their final position could be as low as 4th if they lose, a draw would be enough to secure 2nd.
- Atalanta are a point above the play-off round, however, a loss is likely to see them fall out of the top 8 as 10 clubs could overtake them with a win.
- A draw for Atalanta should offer protection but would leave them vulnerable to wins for Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, and Brest, who could all overtake them. Only 2 would need to do so for Atalanta to fall out of the top 8.
🇩🇪🇨🇿 Bayer Leverkusen (8th: 13pts) v Sparta Prague (29th: 4pts)
- Leverkusen are in the final Last 16 slot, but will likely need a win to maintain that place.
- To absolutely ensure their top 8 place Leverkusen need a win that at least equals that of Aston Villa in 9th, though it is highly likely that a win of any sort leaves the Germans in the top 8.
- Sparta Prague are already eliminated from the competition as they cannot reach the top 24.
🇩🇪🇸🇰 Bayern Munich (15th: 12pts) v Slovan Bratislava (35th: 0pts)
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- The ultimate Champions League qualifiers, Bayern, haven’t had it all their own way, but have a fortunate final opponent to guarantee some form of progression.
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- Bayern can qualify for the Last 16 with a win but could do with a big win here to try and leap over other opponents via goal difference.
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- A rise of 7 positions on the final matchday seems unlikely, but it is possible.
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- Slovan Bratislava have nothing to play for aside from avoiding a rock-bottom (36th-placed) finish.
🇩🇪🇺🇦 Borussia Dortmund (14th: 12pts) v Shakhtar Donetsk (27th: 7pts)
- Dortmund are currently in the knockout phase seeded spots, but a point off the top 8.
- Last year’s finalists will have to win and hope that the vast majority of teams above them lose to qualify for the top 8.
- A draw could be enough to retain top 16 status, but 4 teams could leap over them and if 2 did then they would drop into the unseeded play-off group.
- Shakhtar are fighting for their future, a win could see them qualify into the 17-24 group, but they would need a goal difference swing alongside a win, whilst hoping that at least t2 of the 6 teams directly above them lose or draw.
🇫🇷🇪🇸 Brest (13th: 13pts) v Real Madrid (16th: 12pts)
- Both teams are guaranteed progression, and both can mathematically reach the top 8 with a win.
- A Brest win means that Real Madrid will finish in the unseeded batch of teams for the play-offs, and puts the pressure on teams from Atletico Madrid in 5th to Lille in 12th to win, as Brest would finish above any of them if they lose.
- A draw is likely to consign Real Madrid to the unseeded play-off group, Brest could remain in the top 16 on 14 points.
- Real Madrid winning is very unlikely to be enough to reach the top 8.
🇭🇷🇮🇹 Dinamo Zagreb (26th: 8pts) v AC Milan (6th: 15pts)
- Both clubs have much to play for here.
- Dinamo can qualify for the play-offs with a win, however, a draw is no good for the Croatians.
- Milan need a win to solidify their top 8 slot, a draw is likely to see them in the 9th-16th seeded play-off slots as long as 3 of the teams in 7th to 17th win.
🇪🇸🏴 Girona (31st: 3pts) v Arsenal (3rd: 16pts)
- The Spanish team’s first Champions League campaign ends here, they can reach 28th with a win.
- Arsenal aren’t quite guaranteed top 8 status, though even a loss would mean that all 6 teams below them would have to win to put them into the play-off round.
- Arsenal can finish 2nd with a win.
🇮🇹🇮🇹 Inter Milan (4th: 16pts) v Monaco (10th: 13pts)
- Inter are guaranteed a top 16 place, but a draw will also secure top 8.
- Inter could finish as high as 2nd with a win.
- Monaco realistically need a win to get into the top 8, however, if Leverkusen and Villa also win, then Monaco need a goal difference swing of at least 2 to overtake Villa meaning at least a 3-goal win here.
🇮🇹🇵🇹 Juventus (17th: 12pts) v Benfica (21st: 10pts)
- Juventus are guaranteed progression, but could mathematically finish top 8 with a win, though that would require 9 teams above them not winning.
- A win would definitely see Juve finish in the seeded play-off batch, whilst a draw would likely be enough for the seeded batch too, as that only requires 2 teams above them, plus Celtic, PSV and Club Brugge below them to drop points.
- Benfica could yet drop out of the top 24, though even a loss makes that unlikely as that requires Man City and Dinamo Zagreb to win, and a goal difference swing with PSG, Sporting, and Stuttgart.
🇫🇷🇳🇱 Lille (12th: 13pts) v Feyenoord (11th: 13pts)
- These 2 teams are tied on points and both can qualify for the top 8 with a win.
- Both could also drop out of the top 16 even with a draw.
- Both are guaranteed progression no matter the result, but both would prefer a top 8 berth.
🇦🇹🇪🇸 RB Salzburg (34th: 3pts) v Atletico Madrid (5th: 15pts)
- Atleti are guaranteed top 16, and a draw is likely to be enough to retain their top 8 status, though it leaves them slightly vulnerable if AC Milan, Atalanta, Leverkusen, and Aston Villa all win.
- Atleti can finish as high as 3rd.
- This match spells the end of Salzburg’s European journey this season, as the highest they can reach in the table with a win is 28th.
Champions League Group Stage: Race for the Top 24
🏴🇧🇪 Manchester City (25th: 8pts) v Club Brugge (20th: 11pts)
- A win for Manchester City will ensure they finish in the top 24.
- Club Brugge could finish in the seeded play-off positions, remain in the unseeded play-off positions, or end up eliminated from the competition entirely.
- A draw secures their unseeded play-off berth, a win is likely to see Brugge seeded for the play-off round.
- A loss for Club Brugge could still see them qualify for the next round, but they will depend on other results going their way. Man City are certain to leapfrog them with a win thanks to their superior goal difference.
🇳🇱🏴 PSV (19th: 11pts) v Liverpool (1st: 21pts)
- A loss is likely to leave PSV in the unseeded play-off group, as is a draw.
- PSV could still be eliminated with a loss, but it would require a huge goal difference swing between themselves and Dinamo Zagreb, along with at least 4 other results all going against them.
- Liverpool can be deprived of top spot by a Barcelona win if they lose here, but a draw secures 1st place in the league phase.
- Liverpool are assured of their top 8 spot regardless of what happens in this game and elsewhere on Wednesday night.
🇵🇹🇮🇹 Sporting CP (23rd: 10pts) v Bologna (28th: 5pts)
- Sporting can finish in the 9th-16th seeded group with a win.
- A draw leaves Sporting potentially vulnerable to Stuttgart and Manchester City overtaking them to knock them out of Europe, as long as Benfica and PSG also pick up at least a point as well.
- Bologna are already eliminated and can reach a high of 26th with a win.
🇩🇪🇫🇷 Stuttgart (24th: 10pts) v PSG (22nd: 10pts)
- Both teams tied on 10pts, but Stuttgart have a worse goal difference, which means that a draw will be enough for PSG to qualify in the unseeded play-off group, unless Man City, Dinamo Zagreb and Sporting all win.
- A loss will likely eliminate Stuttgart as long as Man City or Dinamo win.
- A draw eliminates Stuttgart if Man City or Dinamo win, and Sporting and Benfica avoid defeat.
- A win for either side guarantees progression but is unlikely to get them into the seeded group. A big win for PSG might give them a chance on goal difference, but that is a long shot.
Champions League Group Stage: Already Eliminated
🇦🇹🇩🇪 Sturm Graz (33rd: 3pts) v RB Leipzig (30th: 3pts)
- Nothing riding on this match as both clubs are eliminated already.
- Both clubs could finish as high as 28th with a win.
🇨🇭🇷🇸 Young Boys (36th: 0pts) v Red Star Belgrade (32nd: 3pts)
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- There is nothing riding on this match except pride.
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- Young Boys are 1 of 2 clubs without a point, they could climb off the bottom of the league with a result.
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- Red Star could reach a maximum of 28th with a win.
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